It is true, if your waiting for Witnesses to become like the Great Disappointment of 1843 and 1844 when followers of William Miller finally collapsed, don't hold your breath. It is also true that many of us have made a decision to leave the borg, and would like everyone to follow, for whatever reasons we individually have, and obviously there is no mass exodus.
However, the Great Disappointment can give some insight into modern JW's. " The Great Disappointment is viewed by some scholars as an example of the psychological phenomenon of cognitive dissonance . [14] The theory was proposed by Leon Festinger to describe the formation of new beliefs and increased proselytizing in order to reduce the tension, or dissonance, that results from failed prophecies . [15] According to the theory, believers experienced tension following the failure of Jesus' reappearance in 1844, which led to a variety of new explanations. The various solutions form a part of the teachings of the different groups that outlived the disappointment." (Wikipedia, 2013) (I don't like to quote the Wiki, but it was convenient.)
Every day in 1997 there are upward of 375,000 babies born a day,(1998,World Health Organization) compared to 250,000 more witnesses a year. I don't understand the claim that JW's are keeping up with world growth?
Are there more witnesses today than 20 years ago?, sure, but that is not the total story. More pioneers, yes, although as noted the hours have been cut, and existing pioneers have pressure put on them to stay in the "full time service ranks" no matter what, even padding some time; many have learned also to work on the QuickBuild kingdom halls or other similar projects as part of their full time work. (I have a brother-in-law that will take the entire car group to a "bible" study and they all count the time.) Not theocratically legal, but he is an elder heavy in the circuit.
The last convention I went to was in 2010, and the demographics at least for that convention were alarming. The "sea of gray" headedness (meaning old witnesses) was the predominant color of the entire crowd. With 1975, the organization did loose some members, some disgruntled and bitter stayed on. But what the org. had started was momentum of an accelerated growth not seen before. What JW's are experiencing now is the de-acceleration of the exponential growth, meaning the momentum is slowing, and eventually it will slow to a point in which the the organization will struggle with their high turnover rates combined with the deaths of the weighted elderly JW's compared to growth. The two statisical characteristics are working in opposite directions. So the question is "Are JW's in a recession, great recession, or depression, or as some claim an expansion"? Is the work of Jw's sustainable for numerical growth? I think not.
I had a relative that left in the early 1980's say one that he didn't think that Jehovah's Witnesses was a religion that was meant or designed for people to stay active for more than 5 years. The WBTS knows how to bleed the life and money out of youths, and young families, and mature families and then leave them without help in there later years, oh, but WTBTS wants the inheritance from them. I don't think they really want the masses to stay in it longer than 5-10 years. Just get em when they are most productive workwise or financially.
If you choose to remain longer than 5 years, WTBTS wants complete obedience and a keep your mouth shut attitude; they don't want experience of long time people in the truth to really recite the changes made in the last 20 years at a WT study(like last weeks lesson). Get the people when they are productive, guilt them into contributing time and money, and dump them when used up. This is why so many of us haven't had anyone call on us after we stopped turning in time.
While it it cost over 5000 hours per publisher to bring in one convert, there is not too much to say to someone who has figured out the con, it is just better business to look for new "Marks". As far as an increase in Pioneers couldn't this be a sign of cognitive dissonance like experienced with the Millerites? It took decades for a ponzi scheme the size that Bernie Madoff created to burst, but when it did it was well known, just like the Millerites, in the Great Dissappointment.
My mother who is a 3rd generation witness will turn 80 soon, and from what I get from her and the remaining siblings in, is that they have too much invested to quit now. Perhaps it is a thing of pride, they choose not to admit they are wrong. I know this was a hard nut for me to swollow. I don't think that Jw's will be wiped from the face of the earth anytime soon, but the religion as a whole is becoming more as an insignificant group of would be followers, of the greatest Ponzi scheme ever, with a born on date haunting the new GB.
The heavies in the organization are either dead or near dead, (depending upon when you were in) and I have little faith they had anyone with leadership qualities for a sustainable turn around growth. Looking at the growth of new ones in the congregations (not born ins) I see a few, societally fringe people that don't fit in anywhere else, why not join Jw's they will take anyone! The days of big families coming in is over, and that was the key to growth, because there was also the peer pressure from family members to "keep on Keeping on".
