have to agree with Villabollo, you have to take into consideration the new fish that are being reeled in, as absurd as the new "generation " teaching is it will be painted up and served as "new light" with many R&F thanking the G/B for feeding them morsels of fine spiritual food. How many have heard the expression " even if it is all wrong I'll still stay in the WTS as there is no where else to go?" with their twisted brain washed mindset only small pockets will leave. There are many leaving but there are still many new ones coming in, this is the problem.
how much longer do you give it?
I agree with Villbolo.
About 100 years ago, well before Rutherford came on the WT scene, CTR had a HUGE couple of "fallings away."
His organization continued.
I think that the best we can realistically hope for is that in the next "generation" (and according to the new explanation, that takes us into the lifetime of Captain James T. Kirk) the Watchtower will be similar to what the Shakers are today, but without the cleanly designed furniture.
There will ALWAYS be some nut-job with a Magic marker and a poster board saying "THE END IS NEAR!" but at lest the organization that screwed up our families and lives will be reduced to insignificance. That is a satisfying thought.
"Jehovah's Witnesses" will be around for as long as religion is around. There's a need that many people have, that they (and other religions) fill.
Now, will they be the same as they are today, or even similar, in 10, 20, 30 years? Almost certainly not. Their "business model" as it currently stands is unsustainable.
They've got 2 choices, as I see it: either (1) mainstream and become less weird and cultish, or (2) jump off the deep end and go full-bore culty.
Option (1) gives them more adherents and more money, but reduces the power they enjoy.
Option (2) will cost them X% of the current membership, but solidifies the power they do enjoy into near-worship.
What's more important to them? More money and less power, or less money and more power? Both are powerful drugs.
I suspect option (2) is the way they will go. From my viewpoint, power is an aphrodisiac to the guys at the top. They'd rather have 3 million to-the-point-of-death firecely loyal adherents than 15 million followers who are "lukewarm".
Look for more weirdness to come from WT-world. It might look like desperation, but I suspect it really will be a calculated move to solidify their base of core followers into an "us against the world" stance.
I think the best we can hope for would be some sort of legal and/or financial collapse but that's extremely unlikely.
More hopeful is that the numbers have reached their peak and that they will slowly shrink and fade into an even more marginal kook fringe cult than they already are. I think we're about there right now.
For those that dismiss 1914 as no longer relevant because of the generation teaching, we have to remember that the ONLY reason these clowns in Brooklyn are in charge of anything is because of Christ's invisible return in 1914. They can't drop that no matter how they rewrite the dictionary. Therefore, 2014 is a psychological obstacle that many long-time JWs are going to have to deal with. Most will just ride it on through, but there will be a number for whom 100 years of invisible Jesus will hit hard.
Most will just ride it on through, but there will be a number for whom 100 years of invisible Jesus will hit hard.
A question they'll have to deal with shortly:
"So, when Jesus talked about the last days, he really meant the last centuries, then?"
People do not cling to a religion because it makes sense; they cling to it because it offers a sense of security.
There are those that will leave over failed expectations or from just waking up - but there will be a core that have become addicted to their belief that this religion offers security. That core will continue to snare newbies.
The WTS will exist for longer than I will live. In the face of belief, truth hasn't a chance.
WT will be alive and well, long after we're all dead, IMHO.
There's too much apathy in the watchtower for something as dramatic as an implosion. It will just slowly rot away as shit often does.
We have to face the fact that the Watchtower will be with us in some form or another for the foreseeable future. Even if it were to mainstream, there would be a sizeable portion who would cleave to the old beliefs and from a splinter group to continue the system. Just look at the Worldwide Church of God as an example. It went mainstream and many folks were upset and pined for the old ways. You now have a group that supports the Hebert Armstrong teachings ( http://www.herbertwarmstrong.ca/ ) even though his prophecies were as accurate at the Society's.
Also there are groups of Catholics who do not accept the changes since Vatican II and they meet separately and worship the “original” way.
I have read accounts of many former and current JW’s who already think the current policy of allowing blood fractions and association with the UN has rendered the Society as an apostate organization and a reformation needs to occur in order for Jehovah to bless the organization again.
Personal insecurity and ignorance is the WTS. Mana , so as long as that is around, the WTS will maintain itself.
There is possibility of a teetering off in numbers in the more modern industrialized countries , but that's in reality only
a quarter of the worlds population.
As todays GB ages and passes on, there are hundreds of men who would like to seat themselves in this position of privilege,
power and finical support, within the organization.
This in mind the Watchtower wheels will just keep rolling along indefinitely.