by slipnslidemaster 108 Replies latest jw friends
If a scientist had successfully demonstrated a flaw in the modelling you wouldn't be struggling to find the link :-))
Not forgetting that modelling is one piece of the puzzle - there is a mass of empirical evidence to support climate change theory, which is why 97.5% of climate scientists agree that humans are warming the globe.
97.5% of climate scientists agree that humans are warming the globe BECAUSE THEY ARE PAID TO SAY SO ... FOLLOW THE MONEY
Just because 100% of JW's believe armageddon is coming doesn't mean it's true
It wasn't too hard to find the online article. It was published back in 2008!
I have started a new thread on the topic "Climate Greenhouse Warming Equations Wrong"
http://www.jehovahs-witness.net/jw/friends/186535/1/Climate-Greenhouse-Warming-Equation-Wrong
WACo:
"97.5% of climate scientists agree that humans are warming the globe BECAUSE THEY ARE PAID TO SAY SO ... FOLLOW THE MONEY"
Your silly slander notwithstanding please tell me what the other 2.5% are paid to say?
Follow your money all the way to Exxon Mobil.
villabolo
It has often been said that “Weather is not climate”, but ultimately it provides the only meaningful way to verify climate models. Did the climate models predict the cold, snowy weather which has been seen across much of the US?
According to NOAA, October was the third coldest on record in the US, with almost every state showing temperatures from one to ten degrees below normal. Some Parts of Colorado received record snowfall during October, starting the first week of the month.
Image from HPRCC – University of Nebraska at Lincoln
With a few days left, it appears that December is headed for a repeat, with temperatures ranging from one to fifteen degrees below normal. (Note that the color scale is different from October, now the greens show more negative departure, even South Texas is at -6F)
Image from HPRCC – University of Nebraska at Lincoln
Temperatures for the rest of the month are forecast by NCEP to be below normal for almost the entire country, so it is unlikely that the map will change much before New Years Day.
So let’s compare the complete Autumn temperatures vs. the forecasts from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. In August, CPC forecast that most of the US would have above normal temperatures from October through December, and perhaps more importantly did did not predict that any areas would have below normal temperatures.
As you can see below, their prediction was largely reversed from what has happened. Most of the country has seen below normal temperatures during the same period.
Image from HPRCC – University of Nebraska at Lincoln
So my question is – if the climate models can’t reliably predict the next three months, what basis do they have to claim their ability to forecast 100 years out? It is well known in the weather modeling community that beyond about three days, the models tend to break down due to chaos.
We have all heard lots of predictions of warmer winters, less snow, animal populations moving north, drought, dying ski resorts, etc. But did anyone in the climate modeling community forecast the cold, snowy start to winter which has occurred. If not, it would appear that their models are not mature enough to base policy decisions on.
On the other side of the pond, The Met Office forecast 2010 to be the warmest year ever, as they last did in 2007. On cue, the weather turned bitter cold immediately after the forecast and it appears that the unusally cold weather will continue at least through mid-January. As in 2007, the Met office 2010 forecast is not getting off to a good start:
B-Rock:
"We have all heard lots of predictions of warmer winters, less snow, animal populations moving north, drought, dying ski resorts, etc. But did anyone in the climate modeling community forecast the cold, snowy start to winter which has occurred. If not, it would appear that their models are not mature enough to base policy decisions on"
B-Rock, you obviously have not been paying the slightest attention to Climate Change literature. Do a simple and quick Google before you embarass yourself with such statements.
GLOBAL WARMING DID PREDICT AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION! BOTH RAIN AND SNOW! AND IN HEAVY DOWN POURS! JUST GOOGLE "GLOBAL WARMING INCREASED PRECIPITATION" THE REASON FOR THE INCREASED PRECIPITATION IS THE FACT THAT OCEANS ARE GETTING WARMER, WHICH INCREASES THE RATE OF EVAPORATION.
It also predicts, as a general trend, warmer winters but if you go back 160 years you will find a warming effect beginning and then, from about 1930 to 1970 a slightly cool period of time. In spite of the coolness of that period 85% of Climatologist were predicting Global Warming.
As far as droughts are concerned there is no contradiction between the prediction of those droughts and the prediction of increased rain/snow. The reason being that it's a big world with certain regions such as Africa that are in drought and other areas of the world receiving a super abundance of rain for example the US getting once in 500 yearS flooding.
As far as the forecast of the year 2010 being a hot year that was in reference to the summer. I tend to be skeptical of that because we don't know how long the Sun's sunspots are going to keep cooling (temporarily) the Earth. However, the same people predicted that next decade would have more hot years than this one.
villabolo
PS: Sorry for all the useless underlining. I've got a glitch that doesn't allow me to turn it off.
Are you writing off the whole climate science field as a scam?
Real science will eventually trump all fictions.
BTS
Nature has the last laugh.
villabolo
Real science will eventually trump all fictions.
why is it so hard for you to just answer the question?
