JW Decline

by larc 54 Replies latest jw friends

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  larc

  I found some interesting statistics, some of which you may know, that indicate that the WTBTS is in decline.

  1. In the twenty years from 1970 to 1990, the rate of yearly increase dropped from 10% to 6%. In the last 10 years it has dropped from 6% to about 2%. Since the world population growth is about 1.5% they are only growing at about 1/2 of 1% faster than the population.

  2. In 1999, there were 21 large countries that showed a decline. In 2000, there were 22 such countries. These countries are in North America and Europe, plus Australia and Japan.

  3. In almost all countries there has been a steady 10 year decline in the number getting baptized each year. The exceptions are in Asia, where the decline began 5 years ago, and in Africa, where there has not been a decline.

  4. In the past four years, the average hours per publisher, world wide has declined about 15% and the number of Bible studies per publisher has declined about 20%.

  In the 1940's they where the "fastest growing religion" and saw this as a fulfillment of Bible prophecy. They will probably see today's very different situation as a fullfilment of Bible prophecy as well.

  Do you think the internet is partly resposible for this? What other factors are there, do you think?

  What do you think they will do about this, if anything? Personally, I think their days of growth are over.
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  logical

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  Edited by - logical on 26 December 2000 7:48:20
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  Pathofthorns

  I found this sentence in the January 15, 2001 Watchtower a departure from typical past January articles. (page 17, paragraph 3)
  

  Of course, the number of those associated with Jehovha's Witnesses is not a criterion for determining if they enjoy divine favor; nor do statistics impress God.

  
  I thought i was seeing things to see this from an organization known for its love affair with statistics and equating growth with "God's blessing". Its also amazing, because on a personal level, our individual "statistics" as far as field service hours go, are used as a measure of our spirituality.

  It will be interesting to see if they refer to this sentence in the years to come as they try to calm the members' concern over the decrease in the first world. Ironically, it is their past equating growth with God's blessing and their trashing the decrease in the mainstream churches that has created the present concern among the membership.

  Actually this is one Watchtower you might want to get your hands on. It is a masterpiece in "keeping the members calm" while major changes take place. A brilliant piece of work with this magazine that announces the new organizational structure.

  Let us, therefore, be determined to keep in step with Jehovah's organization. Page 16, paragraph 22 (second last sentence in study article

  
  

  Let us, therefore, be determined to keep in step with Jehovah's organization. Page 21, paragraph 24 (last sentence in study article

  I wonder if they are trying to tell us something?

  Path
• 

  larc

  Logical,

  I think you missed the point of what I said. I pointed out two exremly different conditions and they BOTH can't fulfill prophecy. Does war fulfill prophecy? how about peace? can it fulfill it too?? With this kind of logic anyything, no matter what happens will fulfill prophecy. Think about it logicaly.
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  larc

  Logical,

  Please read Path's words carefully. He describes clearly and in detail what the numbers have meant to the society, both their own and those of other religiions. If they diminish the importance of what they have said in the past by the kind of quote that Path cited, then it will be another example of the tactic they have used repeatedly over the past 100+ years. When conditions change, change what you teach.

  Being new to this, I think you are to close to see it. I recommend that you read Franz's book as others haave suggested. It will give you a better overall perspective.
• 

  JAVA

  larc:

  Do you think the internet is partly resposible for this? What other factors are there, do you think?

  I think the Internet is responsible for the Tower's decreases in most countries, with the exception of Third World areas. The Tower can't control the information, and like most of the world, the Witnesses are getting on-line, too. I get email from JWs reading my Homepage; most of it is negative, but they're seeing information they were shielded from in the past.

  Most of the Witness Web sites are poorly done, and the Tower has encouraged the flock not to "waste time" on the Net. The ex-JW sites are numerous, compared to the JW sites. Type "Jehovah's Witnesses" into any search engine, and you'll see what I mean. It's no wonder the Tower has painted the Internet as the dark side. However, the Internet is just about everywhere, and the Tower is loosing this battle of control.

  Also, folks can read information from the Net with very little effort, and in private. Most Witnesses do not have so-called apostate materal in their homes, but they can't help see the other side of the coin when they log on. If we surveyed former members who exited the Tower in the last 5 years, I wouldn't be surprised if the majority left with the help of the Internet!

  Another point of interest might be how long folks are in before exiting. As you know larc, I did a survey about 12 years ago, and found most exiting Witnesses were in 20 or more years. Because of the Internet, I think members might be exiting sooner.
• 

  TR

  Does anyone have stats on the growth of other religion, like 7th Day Adv., Mormons, etc? It would be interesting to compare.

  The WTS's past is coming back to bite them. There are just too many doctrinal botches for them to redeem themselves. More and more JW's are learning the inside details of their religion that the leaders didn't want them to know. The idea that the "light keeps getting brighter" just doesn't fit with the WTS's blunders and flip flops. I think It's going to be a helluva long time before their numbers start going up again, if they ever do. We may even see some major splits within the org. Protestant JWs?!

  TR
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  larc

  Logical,

  I thougt I was done, but I do have one other comment. You quoted a scripture, which may apply to the time we are living in. I, and the others are not challenging or even discussing scripture. We are discussing what the Society has said. From 1935* until 1999, a period of 64 years, they said that their increases were a sign of Jehovah's blessing. Then, as Path pointed, they said this year that increases don't matter to Jehovah. Logical, is there something wrong with the logic here?

  *they did not say this before 1935 because their numbers had not increased for the previous ten years for reasons I can explain if you want me to.
• 

  logical

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  Edited by - logical on 26 December 2000 7:49:10
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  larc

  Logical,

  I am not sympathetic to your sleepiness problem. I was up most of the night integrating and summarizing the statistical information, then I spent considerable time, and others did too, to give you well thought out answers to your response. I don't really think you are that sleepy and tired. You had the presence of mind to find a scripture that you thought would shed light on the subject. If you are that fatigued, get some sleep, reread everything carefully and then send us your thoughts.