Here is a primer Hamster
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/tafm/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commodity_market
bts
The Real Culprit For Rising Oil Prices.???..and theres plenty of oil......
by chrisjoel 79 Replies latest jw friends
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jaguarbass
Here is a solution to the oil crisis. Nationalize the oil companies. Then we can have oil for 25cents a gallon.
When we go to war in countries like Iraq and Iran dont chase the boogie men. Take over the oil wells. Then our boys will know what there dying for.
We cant have America first because Ameica is run by puppets representing multinational corporations.
Capitalism is the way the republicans screw the working man.
What we have done is invaded Iraq and were trying to provide stability so the oil companies can sell the oil to the highest bidder on the open market.
We need to take the oil for America. And leave the rest of the world, like the rest of the world always leaves America. And sell the oil cheap in America to stimulate the United States Economy.
Were going to go bank rupt if all the manufacturing jobs leave and we dont produce anything.
If telemarketing and selling insurance and running jails was the way to economic independence.
Africa would not be a third world country/ continent.
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Satanus
Our prime minister trudeau tried something along that line. American derrick manufacturer companies boycotted him. He caved post haste. Mexico did that yrs ago w pemex. Gas is cheap down there.
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Perry
World oil production has stalled since 2005 at about 85 million barrels per day.
IT'S JUST SUPPLY AND DEMAND.
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BurnTheShips
Here is a solution to the oil crisis. Nationalize the oil companies. Then we can have oil for 25cents a gallon.
Private oil companies only control 6% of oil and gas. The rest is national companies. And get this...it is other nations. Not to mention that without subsidies you can't make gasoline for 25cents a gallon.
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PrimateDave
That's an interesting chart, Burn. It shows what many people fail to realize: Yesterday's Big Oil is no longer so big anymore. They no longer control markets like they may have done in decades past. However, actual reserves for many OPEC nations are not likely as high as commonly stated. It is more important to pay attention to actual flow rate numbers for various regions instead of artificially inflated "reserve" numbers. National oil companies (like Saudi Aramco) are often not held to the same standards of accuracy in reporting reserve numbers that are required of publicly traded companies that have to answer to shareholders.
The current globally combined flow rate of oil (often stated as millions of barrels per day in the USA) is at an all time high for the past few years. It greatly exceeds the production in previous decades. We are seeing the benefits of oil field technology developed over the past 30 years. If we could somehow magically go back to the demand level of say 1970, then the price of oil would fall of a cliff, so to speak. But, as things are now, global demand meets or exceeds supply, and supply growth appears to have leveled off and may have even peaked. (I know you know this, Burn, but others reading this may not be familiar with Peak Oil.)
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1914BS
Sooner or later the oil reserves will run dry. Mathematics dictates an absolute maximum price for a barrel of crude, say, $5000/brrl. At that point no one except the filthy rich will be able to buy it, so the oil market drys up and people are turned into soylent green
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uwishufish
Will cars run on Soylent Green?
If they will someday we will have Peek Soylent Green.
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BurnTheShips
PrimateDave, you "get it"!
It is more important to pay attention to actual flow rate numbers for various regions instead of artificially inflated "reserve" numbers.
Bingo. Extraction rates matter! I can have a 5000 gallon cistern in my house and if the spigot is only able to supply a cup of water per day I will die of thirst. On paper, the Athabascan tar sands are a huge oil reserve, but the extraction rates are far far lower than conventional oil in Saudi Arabia. The same is true for shale oil in the American west.
It is more important to pay attention to actual flow rate numbers for various regions instead of artificially inflated "reserve" numbers.
In the 80's, OPEC changed how it apportioned production to it's members. Output rights were assigned based on member reserves. When the change was made, just about all the member nations upped their "proven reserve" estimates by a huge amount:
Declared reserves with suspicious increases (in billion of barrels)Colin Campbell, SunWorld, 80-95 Year Abu Dhabi Dubai Iran Iraq Kuwait Saudi Arabia Venezuela 1980 28.00 1.40 58.00 31.00 65.40 163.35 17.87 1981 29.00 1.40 57.50 30.00 65.90 165.00 17.95 1982 30.60 1.27 57.00 29.70 64.48 164.60 20.30 1983 30.51 1.44 55.31 41.00 64.23 162.40 21.50 1984 30.40 1.44 51.00 43.00 63.90 166.00 24.85 1985 30.50 1.44 48.50 44.50 90.00 169.00 25.85 1986 31.00 1.40 47.88 44.11 89.77 168.80 25.59 1987 31.00 1.35 48.80 47.10 91.92 166.57 25.00 1988 92.21 4.00 92.85 100.00 91.92 166.98 56.30 1989 92.20 4.00 92.85 100.00 91.92 169.97 58.08 1990 92.20 4.00 93.00 100.00 95.00 258.00 59.00 1991 92.20 4.00 93.00 100.00 94.00 258.00 59.00 1992 92.20 4.00 93.00 100,00 94,00 258.00 62.70 2004 92.20 4.00 132.00 115.00 99.00 259.00 78.00 2007 ? ? 136.30 115.00 101.50 262.30 80.00 Cheers
BTS
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SixofNine
....aaaaaand more evidence on the speculation side:
http://www.businessweek.com/lifestyle/content/apr2008/b...
In January of this year, the U.S. used 4% less petroleum than we did a year ago. (Oil demand was down 3.2% in February.) Furthermore, demand has been falling slowly since July of last year. Ronald Bailey of Reason Online has pointed out that worldwide production of oil has risen 2.5% in the first quarter, while worldwide demand has grown by only 2%
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As for the speculators, in 2000 approximately $9 billion was invested in oil futures, while today that number has gone up to $250 billion. Now, if any publicly traded company had an additional $241 billion put into its stock in the same period, its stock would rise out of sight too—even if the company was not worth anywhere near that amount of market capitalization.
Moving on to the weak U.S. dollar as a primary cause for skyrocketing oil prices—there is "some" truth in that statement. But consider this: The dollar has depreciated 30% against the world's currencies since 2002, while the price of oil has gone up 500%. So is it the weak dollar that has caused a 500% increase in the price of oil, or is it the extra $241 billion worth of speculation? You can make the call on that one.
