Members are shrinking? They're still seeing an increase at the moment, the only thing that's stopped them increasing in the past is the WT's false prophecies, and even 1975 didn't cause a huge exit! I doubt they'll make any more dates for Armageddon, so I don't see a crash or even a slow fade happening any time soon.
*Hopes I'm wrong*
THE WTS: CRASH OR SLOWLY FADE AWAY?
by Seeker4 40 Replies latest jw friends
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Zico
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observer
Little bit offtopic but there is a rumour that an article in KM 9/2007 will forbid independent Bible studying.. does anyone have that KM yet?
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keyser soze
The problem isn't that the average JW simply doesn't know the truth. The problem is they don't want to know. Anything that undermines their belief system, they will dismiss as apostate propaganda. The UN scandal and pedophile cases were both reported on by credible news sources, and they had very little impact. Anything that comes out by an ex-member will be dismissed as lies, because that's what they are trained to do. There will always be a significant number who will accept whatever the WTS tells them.
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wednesday
money, and their contributions. money will bring them down. if anything else could , it would have already. Most jws already don't know much about Russell, or don't care. that is more or less considered an apostate 'thing'.
money and how it is handled brings down a lot of organizations. if they can't get you on anything else they try tax fraud.
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OnTheWayOut
They're still seeing an increase at the moment, the only thing that's stopped them increasing in the past is the WT's false prophecies, and even 1975 didn't cause a huge exit! I doubt they'll make any more dates for Armageddon, so I don't see a crash or even a slow fade happening any time soon.
Zico, I have always admired your ability to deeply comment from such a young age.
I gotta say that you have fallen for their misleading numbers. YES, THERE IS AN INCREASE.
Notice that it is tiny, notice that they've started counting 15 minutes-per-month publishers to
keep their publisher average up in established countries. Notice the threads about 10 and 11
year-olds getting baptized, but also notice how the vast majority of teens leave the religion.
Expansion in the U.S. (and other established countries) is in foreign speaking congregations,
and they will soon get tired of the imminent end, just like everyone else.The Borg has manipulated about as far as they can to keep the numbers positive. There are
still a few years of 10 and 11 year-olds coming out after the 1995 doctrinal change. Many dubs
decided to have kids if the end wasn't so imminent. There are still a few more years for the
foreign language congs. to produce positive numbers. Even with these, the growth is tiny. The
average DC or Circuit assembly has 1 to 2% in attendance getting baptized, while a similar
number must have left or died.True, new growth is happening in developing nations, but as these traditionalists realize how
controlling the WTS is, people in these nations will drop out quickly, plus the internet is
everywhere, so new recruiting will die out quickly there, also.I expect positive numbers in the U.S. and Britain and similar established countries to change in
3 to 5 years and steadily go negative from there. I expect the newer developing countries to hold
out up to 10 years, then go negative- perhaps much sooner as the WTS tries to control their lives
too much.A radical change might happen. The GB might make one last-dicth growth effort by declaring they
really are sure about the imminent end this time. They might try to round up all the inactives and
fence-sitters building up to 2014 so they can continue with positive numbers. Their real objective
would be to restructure and move money out of the U.S. before they apologize for everybody
misreading what they said, and become a smaller streamlined more mainstream religion afterward.
Perhaps, they will flip and start paying taxes and become a regular religious literature publisher.
I would actually prefer this, because a huge number would leave that religious scenario shortly
after 2014. These are exciting times for the Brooklyn Organization. -
Arthur
Real study values are gone among the rank and file. I've been out for a decade, but I do believe that I could still kick the ass of any of the brothers in my former congregation in a biblical discussion, or discussion of WTS history and teachings. When you equate "studying" with reading and underlining a WT article or a paragraph in a book written for a 10 year old, you've got some serious research issues.
Seeker, you hit the nail right on the head.
I have noticed that "serious study" in the organization means nothing more than studying and commiting to memory what is printed in the publications. I never knew of any Witness who ever went to a public library to do any extra research.
What I found most troubling was that most Witnesses do not know how to reason Scripturally without using lieterature. My mother knows that I don't accept many WT doctrines. Not once has she been able to have a rational discussion by strictly using the Bible. Her solution is to continuously drop off stacks of magazines for me. Drew Sagan was telling me that when he went inactive, his mother-in-law did essentially the same thing. All she would do is come drop off the Revelation Climax book, and tell him to read it. This is truly pathetic.
I noticed in private conversations with elders that even the more experienced and respected ones could not answer my concerns without resorting to the typical Watchtower cliches, catch-phrases, and one-liners ("wait on Jehovah", "were else would we go", "beware of fault-finding, etc.). They did of course open up and read various verses, but these were the same predictable "proof texts" that the Society trains Witnesses to use.
The situation in the organization where members are constantly exhorted to shut down their natural thinking processes, to relinquish healthy critical thinking skills, to shun outside scholarly works, to shun higher education, and to robotically commit to memory whatever talking points are passed down from a headquarters is - I believe - dangerous. I believe that the WT leadership is becoming more removed from reality; and because of their belief that they represent God's exclusive channel, or prophetic class; I believe that their delusional thinking is going to cause them to continually make irrational decisions and do more damage to people's lives.
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Seeker4
Here's the link to an earlier thread I started about the drop in the number of elders. There were some interesting comments on this one.
http://www.jehovahs-witness.com/6/127758/1.ashxz
WT Wizard mentioned the possibility that JWs might "seize control of all knowledge," with dire results. Not sure what alternate universe you live in, WTW, but this is so far from possiblity as to be laughable. There is little hope in this day of such incredible access to information of ANY organization seizing control of all knowledge, very least of all JWs. JWs are a footnote in today's culture, and they have essentially NO POWER over anything, very least of all "knowledge."
Someone mentioned the possibility of a scandal involving pedophilia by a GB member. That already happened. Leo Greenlees was dismissed from the GB, and its been common knowlege on this site, backed up by similar information I've heard seperately from a former Bethelite who is still an active JW elder, that Greenlees was dismissed for sexually abusing a young boy in a California congregation. Greenlees was not disfellowshipped, and the matter was kept completely hushed up. The average Witness has NO idea about this. I'm sure someone can find a link to those threads.
Zico wrote that the Witnesses were still seeing an increase. I think that point was well answered in the thread. Thanks. Growth is pretty much limited to third world countries and foreign language immigrant groups in the first world countries. Education and wider access to the Internet will continue to have an impact there. Growth in North America, Europe, Japan, Korea and Australia has been stagnant or declining for about a decade. I've long asserted on these boards, and I stand by it, that the WTS decline began in the mid-1990s.
Wednesday mentioned money as a factor, and that may be a huge one. I would guess that the donation system is not very lucrative. Magazines and especially books are being printed incredibly cheaply. Bethel has seen a huge downsizing over the last year or so. Very valuable waterfront properties in Brooklyn Heights are being sold for amazing sums of money, but that's only a stopgap measure. I would assume the WTS is worth billions when property is taken into consideration (at one time I think they owned over 30 buildings in the Heights area, which would be worth a fortune), but that can be used up quickly, especially if they are paying out millions to hush up these pedophilia lawsuits.
I agree with those who forsee a long, but sad decline among the Witnesses. I'm sure my ex-wife will experience that, and my JW daughter. I just am really trying to make sure they don't allow my 10-year-old granddaughter to get baptized anytime soon. I don't want to see her be a part of that decline. She's far too bright and creative.
Arthur, good points. I have to agree. My ex-father and mother in law have brought hundreds of people into the "truth," but I can assure you that they could not for one minute defend the Witness teachings before anyone with a modicum of scientific background, and certainly not against anyone with a decent knowledge of JW history. Neither could my ex-wife or my daughter. My JW son-in-law already knows it's all shit, but is so mentally unprepared for anything else he sees it as his only resource and way out. But then he's a JW alcoholic...
I remember when I was starting to see that the Witnesses were not what they claimed to be. I'd stepped down as an elder, and about a year later or so the other elders and eventually the CO began to see that I was really on my way out. I'd been one of the most studious and best prepared elders, and I wondered how well these other elders and traveling brothers would do in answering the questions that I was dealing with.
This is the absolute truth of the matter: The points the elders and COs used in answering my questions were exactly the same ones I'd used for years, and those points had really been the starting points from where I'd gone in examining the Witnesses' teachings, science, etc. They presented absolutely nothing new for me, not one new idea, not one point that I hadn't already examined and torn to shreds. They were so pathetic, there were times that I was inclined to take over their side of the discussion and at least give myself something worth arguing against.
There I was with the elite that the JWs had to offer, and it was sadly lacking. As Arthur said, the typical JW, and even the un-typical, above average JW elder, cannot begin to reason scripturally, logically, reasonably or scientifically on anything of genuine substance that questions JW teachings.
S4
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greendawn
Their hold over the minds of their believers is so great, it is likely to slowly fade out of existence. I don't think they really care since they have already made a lot of money out of the dubs which they have already invested in various sectors.
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Warlock
As long as the R&F are not told about situations like Cano, as long as they are discouraged from reading any religious history written by anyone other than the WTS, AS LONG AS ASKING QUESTIONS LEADS TO BEING MARKED, OR DISFELLOWSHIPPED, and as long as the majority OBEY, the WTS will be around forever.
Warlock
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Quandry
Anything that comes out by an ex-member will be dismissed as lies, because that's what they are trained to do. There will always be a significant number who will accept whatever the WTS tells them.
I think as time goes by, it is becomming harder and harder to dismiss everything as lies. The numbers of those who are leaving is definetely increasing.
I remember when I was baptised, in 1973, and even after the 1975 thing the word apostacy was a rarely used word. When someone left, it was naturally assumed that money or immorality got them.
Now, the ones who leave are very vocal. They write letters to ones in the congregations before they leave, or try to reason with friends and relatives. Apostacy is an oft used word now at assemblies and conventions.
It seems like many new ones here had serious problems with the generation thing, or the U.N. involvement. I know I did, even though that is not my initial reason for leaving. After I saw this web site, and others, I can never go back.
I don't see a major downfall, just chinks and chunks coming off for quite some time. But more time going by is going to make the significance of 1914 and the "trumpet blast" assemblies of the 1920s seem a little remote.