Hi Caedes - I think we've thread jacked
statistical likelihoods are quoted for both events as being close to zero
the point of the article was that one of the three propositions must be true - so either there is very low probability of human level civ reaching a tech level where these simulations are possible (called post human but doesnt require any outside body stuff just high tech levels), or they will reach this level but decide not to run simulations (your point about the morality of it is the thrust of the second proposition), or the third possibility is that there is a high probability we are in a simulation given the ratio of simulations to real civs
it is left to the reader to decide which proposition they favour
this article focused on ancestor simulations, if you expand it to general sandbox evolutionary simulations then the probability gets even higher, say one in a hundred of human level civs reach a the required tech level to run detailed evolutionary simulations with self aware sims, but they run a million evolutionary simulations (not all at once but over time until they have learnt all they can), then the probability we are in a sim is 999900/1000000 or 99.99% (figures are made up for illustrative purposes )
so the question is would they, given morals and such vs the value of the information gained - who knows but the maths is striking, although yes highly scifi
no i am not saying we are in a simulation, just that I cant see any way out of the maths (not that I am a mathmatician) so if anyone can point out flaws in the maths go for it, and I think that sometimes considering the out-there theories is fun
would you value your life any less if you were electrons in a computer memory chip rather than flesh and bones
cheers
pak