I was so inspired by the ridicolousness of Thirdwitnoid in that other thread ("The gentile times reconsidered again...but this time I am using the Bible"), in which he actually dared bring up the old "increase in earthquakes"-fairytale from the WT and Asleep. It really had nothing to do in that thread, which was about 607 vs 587 (oh no, not that again...), so I thought I`d start a thread about it here. Anyway, here is what I found when googling "worlds deadliest earthquakes", this is a list that might look favorable to JWs:
| Date | Location | Deaths | Magnitude |
|---|---|---|---|
Jan. 23, 1556 | Shansi, China | 830,000 | ~8 |
| July 27, 1976 | Tangshan, China | 255,000 1 | 7.5 |
| Aug. 9, 1138 | Aleppo, Syria | 230,000 | n.a. |
| Dec. 26, 2004 | off west coast of northern Sumatra | 225,000+ | 9.0 |
| Dec. 22, 856 2 | Damghan, Iran | 200,000 | n.a. |
| May 22, 1927 | near Xining, Tsinghai, China | 200,000 | 7.9 |
| Dec. 16, 1920 | Gansu, China | 200,000 | 7.8 |
| March 23, 893 2 | Ardabil, Iran | 150,000 | n.a. |
| Sept. 1, 1923 | Kwanto, Japan | 143,000 | 7.9 |
| Oct. 5, 1948 | Ashgabat, Turkmenistan, USSR | 110,000 | 7.3 |
| Dec. 28, 1908 | Messina, Italy | 70,000– 100,000 3 | 7.2 |
| Sept. 1290 | Chihli, China | 100,000 | n.a. |
| Oct. 8, 2005 | Pakistan | 80,361 | 7.6 |
| Nov. 1667 | Shemakha, Caucasia | 80,000 | n.a. |
| Nov. 18, 1727 | Tabriz, Iran | 77,000 | n.a. |
| Dec. 25, 1932 | Gansu, China | 70,000 | 7.6 |
| Nov. 1, 1755 | Lisbon, Portugal | 70,000 | 8.7 |
| May 31, 1970 | Peru | 66,000 | 7.9 |
| May 30, 1935 | Quetta, Pakistan | 30,000– 60,000 | 7.5 |
| Jan. 11, 1693 | Sicily, Italy | 60,000 | n.a. |
| 1268 4 | Silicia, Asia Minor | 60,000 | n.a. |
| June 20, 1990 | Iran | 50,000 | 7.7 |
| Feb. 4, 1783 | Calabria, Italy | 50,000 | n.a. |
...from this site: http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0884804.html (perfectly neutral and unapostate)
Now, I have a problem: From JW-files webpage, I found this list:
1201 IX 1,100,000 Upper Egypt or Syria | 1100000 |
1556 IX 830,000 Shensi province, China | 830000 |
1737 . . . 300,000 Calcutta, India | 300000 |
526 . . . 250,000 Antioch, Syria | 250000 |
1976 7.8 240,000 T'ang-shan, China | 240000 |
1138 XI 230,000 Ganzah, Aleppo, Syria | 230000 |
1920 8.5 200,000 Kansu province, China | 200000 |
1703 . . . 200,000 Jeddo, Japan | 200000 |
856 . . . 200,000 Qumis, Damghan, Iran | 200000 |
893 . . . 180,000 Daipur, India | 180000 |
...and this last list differs a bit from the first. It mentions the Shansi (China) - earthquake in 1556, but it differs a bit from the first list. Anyone here know anything more about this? Anyway, if we use the FIRST list as the basis for discussion, that would be fair to any jw-apologist that would want to participate in the discussion:
...of the 23 deadliest earthquakes, 11 has happened after 1914. The deadliest earthquake was in China in 1556. On the surface, and to the untrained eye an brainwashed mind (as in "jw", I mean), this might look shocking, and like something that would support their theories. 11 of the 23 deadliest earthquakes has happened since 1914..."gaaasp, the slave is right about eeeverything!!" It`s just that it`s not as simple as it looks on the surface, and here are the reasons why:
1) First of all, there is no reason to assume that earthquakes were any less frequent before 1914 than after. There is nothing in seismological history that indicates that this is the case. Also, the seismological tools used to measure the activity in the ground, were not invented until the 18th century, and the first machines weren`t as accurate as the ones we have today. Everything we know about earthquakes over the last 2000 (or more) years, is from written material from the time of the event. Anyone that knows anything about history would understand that these records are unreliable, incomplete, missing or were never written down in the first place. Further, seismologists says, and they are all in agreement on this, that earthquakes are neither more frequent now (or in the 20th century) or any stronger now (in the 20th century) than in the preceding centuries. The number of earthquakes every year and their intensity has been fairly stabile for many centuries. (There are some good quotes about this on the jw-files-page)
2) Is 11 out of 23 such a shocking figure? If comparing one century to the preceding ...what...20 ? - yes, it might look that way. But on the other hand, as demonstrated in point 1), we have no way of knowing whether or not there were many more earthquakes, taking tens of thousands of lives (maybe more), but that these events were lost to history. It`s of course impossible to argue that this was the case, but the point is that it is highly likely that it was the case. Oh, and take a look at all the earthquakes before 1914 on this list, and look at their locations: They all happened in areas with large populations (even then) that were also fairly civilised, areas that had a central government, places in which "stuff" was written down! - and these places were also places that the western world had contact with/ trade with! If an earthquake killing 500 000 people had happened in India in the 10th century, would it be so sure that we would know about this today? I don`t think so. At that time, the area had no strong central government, was divided and under the rule of local leaders, completely rural, ,etc. If noone had written it down, and made sure the written story/text was passed on within the nations history, there is no way we would know about it today (unless archaeology had stumbled across it, and uncovered it to us).
3) There are also other reasons why the death tolls were so high in the earthquakes of the 20th century. In 2006, there are 6.5 billion people in the world. In 1802 AD, there were 1 billion. In 1420 AD, 375 million. In 950 AD, 250 million. Clearly, when an earthquake hits a large city in in the 2006, it`s going to take more lives than it would have, in 1420. That`s just common sense.
But that in itself does not mean that this is "the time of the end"...
(please add your comments and expertise folks, and let`s kill off this jw-myth once and for all)