Earthquakes and rumors of war or whatever ;o)

by Hellrider 39 Replies latest watchtower beliefs

• 

  stevenyc

  Also, http://earthquake.usgs.gov/learning/topics/100_chance.php

  100% Chance of an Earthquake
  There's a 100 percent chance of an earthquake today. Though millions of persons may never experience an earthquake, they are very common occurrences on this planet. So today -- somewhere -- an earthquake will occur.

  It may be so light that only sensitive instruments will perceive its motion; it may shake houses, rattle windows, and displace small objects; or it may be sufficiently strong to cause property damage, death, and injury.

  It is estimated that about 700 shocks each year have this capability when centered in a populated area. But fortunately, most of these potentially destructive earthquakes center in unpopulated areas far from civilization.

  Since a major portion of the world's earthquakes each year center around the rim of the Pacific Ocean (Ring of Fire), referred to by seismologists as the circum-Pacific belt, this is the most probable location for today's earthquake. But it could hit any location, because no region is entirely free of earthquakes.

  Stating that an earthquake is going to occur today is not really "predicting earthquakes". To date, they cannot be predicted. But anyone, on any day, could make this statement and it would be true. This is because several million earthquakes occur annually; thereby, thousands occur each day, although most are too small to be located. The problem, however, is in pinpointing the area where a strong shock will center and when it will occur.

  Earthquake prediction is a future possibility, though. Just as the Weather Bureau now predicts hurricanes, tornadoes, and other severe storms, the NEIC may one day issue forecasts on earthquakes. Earthquake research was stepped up after the Alaska shock in 1964. Today, research is being conducted by the USGS and other federal and state agencies, as well as universities and private institutions. Earthquake prediction may some day become a reality, but only after much more is learned about the earthquake mechanism.

  steve
• 

  thirdwitness

  Jesus said there would be great earthquakes in one place after another. The more damage an earthquake does and the more people it kills the greater the earthquake. All your reasoning about there being more people on the earth is bogus. Jesus probably knew that.

  Which is worse? A plane crash that kills all 10 people on board, 100 percent? Or a plane crash that kills 999 out of 1000--less than 100 percent? The answer is obvious. You can twist statistics all you want to try to support you view. The fact is that Jesus said that there would be great earthquakes in one place after another. There are. And the earthquakes since 1914 have killed more people on average per year than before 1914, a lot more.

  Jesus was right. JWs are right.
• 

  thirdwitness

  When a person makes a list of the greatest earthquakes do they put on the list some earthquake in the middle of nowhere that might have registered a 10 on the richter scale but did no damage to civilization. Of course not. I don't think Jesus had in mind an in depth study of quakes and their magnitudes throughout history to determine if great quakes were in one place after another. I believe he had in mind that to the normal person looking at world events it would be evident that earthquakes would do more damage in terms of destruction and loss of life than previously. And they have.
• 

  done4good

  Which is worse? A plane crash that kills all 10 people on board, 100 percent? Or a plane crash that kills 999 out of 1000--less than 100 percent? The answer is obvious.

  OK, so somehow population is a GOOD reason for the "increasing of lawlessness" or whatever BS that is, I always thought that we were taught, (as jws), that it was because Satan was cast down to the Earth?
• 

  Grouper

  So Jehovah or Jesus is responsible for increasing the amount of earthquakes that are killing 4x more people post 1914?
• 

  AlanF

  Thirdwitness said:

  : Jesus said there would be great earthquakes in one place after another.

  Yeah, but you keep ignoring the fact that he warned against viewing them as signs of "the end".

  : The more damage an earthquake does and the more people it kills the greater the earthquake.

  Duh.

  : All your reasoning about there being more people on the earth is bogus. Jesus probably knew that.

  Nope. All that Jesus said was that there would continue to be earthquakes, and said, "Don't pay them any attention, for the end is not yet."

  : Which is worse? A plane crash that kills all 10 people on board, 100 percent? Or a plane crash that kills 999 out of 1000--less than 100 percent? The answer is obvious.

  This is a false analogy, because the question we're considering about earthquakes concerns the statistics of their occurrence over a long period of time, whereas your analogy concerns only two events.

  A proper analogy involving plane crashes would be to consider the history of two airlines, one large and one small. Jumbo Airline's crash record shows that one out of 100,000 flights crashes, and that an average of 500 people are killed on each crash. So your chances of dying when flying Jumbo are 0.5%. Flea Airline's crash record shows that one out of 100 flights crashes, and that an average of 5 people are killed in each crash. So your chances of dying when flying Flea are 5%. Which airline would you rather fly?

  Jumbo crashes kill 500 people at a time, and Flea crashes kill 5 people at time, so a simpleton might conclude that it's a lot safer to fly Flea than Jumbo. But he would be wrong. And 10 times more likely to be dead.

  Of course, thirdwitness will side with the simpleton, because the bogus reasoning involved in the simpleton's conclusion is exactly the same as the Society's with regard to earthquakes.

  : You can twist statistics all you want to try to support you view.

  You are the one who is twisting the statistics. In my post # 4728 on the Gentile times thread ( http://www.jehovahs-witness.com/12/118775/57.ashx ) I posted a link ( http://home.comcast.net/~alanf00/essays/Quake_Charts.pdf ) to some informational charts on earthquakes. Several charts prove that the 69 years just after 1914 were statistically indistinguishable from the preceding 69 years in terms of number of deaths per year, and also from a 69 year period 200 years earlier. Furthermore, the absolute number of deaths in those periods was nearly the same. Here are the average figures:

  1915-1983: Total killed: 1,210,597 Average killed per year: 17,545
  1847-1914: Total killed: 1,199,973 Average killed per year: 17,391
  1715-1783: Total killed: 1,373,845 Average killed per year: 19,911

  Even if we eliminate the 1737 India quake (assuming the 300,000 deaths were actually due to a cyclone), the 18th century figures are:

  1715-1783: Total killed: 1,073,845 Average killed per year: 15,563

  Clearly, based on available records, the period since 1914 was not statistically different from other periods. 1914 brought no change in earthquake deaths, magnitudes or frequencies. The Watchtower Society has admitted as much, and has reverted to the extremely simpleminded claim, "Jesus said there would be quakes; we see quakes; therefore he was right."

  : The fact is that Jesus said that there would be great earthquakes in one place after another. There are.

  That's like predicting that the sky will be blue, the grass will be green and young men will lust after young women.

  : And the earthquakes since 1914 have killed more people on average per year than before 1914, a lot more.

  Using exactly the same 'reasoning' that 'proves' that JWs are now experiencing a 130-fold increase in gross sexual immorality.

  : Jesus was right.

  Trivially true.

  : JWs are right.

  Demonstrably false.

  : When a person makes a list of the greatest earthquakes do they put on the list some earthquake in the middle of nowhere that might have registered a 10 on the richter scale but did no damage to civilization. Of course not.

  The Watchtower Society did exactly that back around 1983. The bogus results appear in various WTS publications, including the Reasoning book.

  : I don't think Jesus had in mind an in depth study of quakes and their magnitudes throughout history to determine if great quakes were in one place after another.

  That's right. All he said was that people shouldn't claim that earthquakes were a harbinger of his coming.

  : I believe he had in mind that to the normal person looking at world events it would be evident that earthquakes would do more damage in terms of destruction and loss of life than previously. And they have.

  Your claims have repeatedly been demonstrated to be false.

  And of course, you cannot explain why it's bogus to claim that Jehovah's Witnesses today have a problem with gross sexual immorality 130 times worse than 70 years ago. Why? Because even though the statistics are sound, they're misused to reach this conclusion. And it's exactly the same misuse of statistics that you and the Watchtower Society have used in their bogus claims about earthquakes.

  AlanF
• 

  gumby

  The GB and all other Watchtower writers use the U.S.A. as their barometer for determining world conditions in relation to Jesus prophecy. They always fail to see that the things Jesus mentioned have ALWAYS been with mankind and they fail to see he was talking about the jewish people and what they would encounter.

  Why would Jesus tell his diciples all these signs to look for if they would never see these signs since these signs wouldn't even happen until 2000 years later....according to Watchtower theology and most of christendoms ideas on this?

  g02 3/22 p. 9 Earthquakes, Bible Prophecy, and You *** Earthquakes, Bible Prophecy, and You

  BEFORE his death, Jesus foretold events and situations that would give evidence that this world had entered "the conclusion of the system of things." That period, he said, would be marked by such things as pestilences, food shortages, and large-scale warfare. ( end quote)

  I like the way the society threw in the words...."large scale warfare". I don't remember the scripture wording it that way. Third world countries have experienced these conditions since mans history....yet if these things happened in the U.S. on a third world country degree........their message of the end being close would be 10 times stronger.....yet the U.S. is just a tiny spot on our planet.

  Gumby
• 

  plmkrzy

  Jesus said there would be great earthquakes in one place after another.

  He actually said great earthquakes in one place after another? I thought he said something more like great disturbances. Shaking

  Many people have taken the phrase "the latter days" to refer to the time just before the return of Christ. But if you look at that phrase in other places in Scripture, especially in the book of Hebrews you find that "the latter days" or "the last days" refers to the entire age between the first and the second comings of Jesus. We have been living in "the last days" since our Lord was here on earth. What the Spirit was saying is that, during this whole age, there would come repeated cycles of perilous times when God would shake the earth and the heavens, and things would be upset and confused, times of upheaval. One of the comforting things this passage sets before us is that the One who does the shaking is God himself. God shakes up the earth, shakes up the people.

  http://raystedman.org/misc/3134.html

  THE SHAKING OF THE EARTH by Ray C. Stedman

  Real earthquakes are natural and happen all the time like weather. We see lightening all the time but is that a sign now of the end times?
• 

  Hellrider

  Thirdwitness:

  You can twist statistics all you want to try to support you view. The fact is that Jesus said that there would be great earthquakes in one place after another. There are. And the earthquakes since 1914 have killed more people on average per year than before 1914, a lot more.

  Jesus was right. JWs are right.

  You are the one that has been twisting statistcs. I and the others have tried to show the proper way to read them. Alan F showed you in his previous post how there were almost exactly the same numbers of death in the 18th and 19th century, as in the 20th century. As we are all learning to know you, I will assume that you are just going to ignore that, like you do with all arguments and even statistics that doesn`t suit your beliefs. But more importantly:

  Again you are trying to make this a case between jws and jesus vs. "the apostates" and the rest of the world. Let me tell you something: You don`t have a monopoly on Jesus! Jesus isn`t the one that said that he would return invisibly in 1914 to inspect the churches bla bla bla, and then choose the WTS cause they had the dorrect interpretations of the Bible (interpretations, that by the way were extremely different from the interpretations they have today!!! - so how the fu#k could he "choose them" I wonder!!). Jesus never said this! Could you show me where in the Bible he says this? I have read it, and I can tell you that he never said any such things. When we "apostates" say that there are no more earthquakes, or statistically more deaths due to earthquakes than what is normal and has been normal and stabile for centuries, then we are not saying that Jesus lied or was wrong, or anything like that. Any (sane) christian person would take the statistics seriously, and then say "hm...looks like the end times aren`t happening right now, that`s for sure...then all of that lies in the future, along with the end of the world, the second coming (yes, second, not third!), and the thousand-year reign...". It`s not a matter of jesus and the jws vs the apostates. It`s a matter of looking at the world, investigating it, and draw the correct conclusions. Just because you want this to be the end times, doesn`t mean that they are. When looking at earthquake-statistics, clearly, the end times are in the future. Now, if we start having 200 000 deaths-quakes once or twice a year, instead of once every 30 years (which is normal, look at the stats for the 19th and 18th century), then we start talking about end times. Not before. And by the way, when reading the Gospels, I can`t see any comparison at all between Jesus and the Jehovahs Witnesses. Jesus sat down to eat and drink with whores and other outcasts. The pharisees and "righteous jews" were outraged, much in the same manner as when I started doing that. Jesus praised the samaritan for helping him when he was down and out. I have never seen any jw help someone when they were down and out. In fact, in field service with my mom and another "sister" once, we walked by some drunk/high woman passed out on the street. Mom and the "sister" just frowned and walked on. And I don`t think any jw I ever knew would have done anything other than just that. That`s right, Thirdwitness. Just walk on.
• 

  thirdwitness

  Hey did you know that earthquakes in 1556 averaged close to one million per year. How about that statistic?

  You can't just pull out of your hat and start with a big earthquake that occured and then finish with a big earthquake and claim see there how many died from this period to the period. More is involved than earthquakes. I challenge you to find any 90 year period that had almost 2 million earthquake deaths and 100 million war deaths. And then there is famine and all the other parts of the sign. And so after you find that 90 year period with 2 million and 100 million deaths from eqs and wars, make sure it is also the same 90 year period when the good news of the kingdom of God is preached in almost every country to millions of people. And I'm not talking about the false news about some Trinity God that burns people in hell forever. I'm talking about the real good news of the kingdom--a kingdom set up with God's son as ruler by the true God who is not a Trinity, Jehovah, that will bring paradise conditions to earth as foretold in the Bible.

  Then you will have made your point.