: Jesus said there would be great earthquakes in one place after another.
Yeah, but you keep ignoring the fact that he warned against viewing them as signs of "the end".
: The more damage an earthquake does and the more people it kills the greater the earthquake.
: All your reasoning about there being more people on the earth is bogus. Jesus probably knew that.
Nope. All that Jesus said was that there would continue to be earthquakes, and said, "Don't pay them any attention, for the end is not yet."
: Which is worse? A plane crash that kills all 10 people on board, 100 percent? Or a plane crash that kills 999 out of 1000--less than 100 percent? The answer is obvious.
This is a false analogy, because the question we're considering about earthquakes concerns the statistics of their occurrence over a long period of time, whereas your analogy concerns only two events.
A proper analogy involving plane crashes would be to consider the history of two airlines, one large and one small. Jumbo Airline's crash record shows that one out of 100,000 flights crashes, and that an average of 500 people are killed on each crash. So your chances of dying when flying Jumbo are 0.5%. Flea Airline's crash record shows that one out of 100 flights crashes, and that an average of 5 people are killed in each crash. So your chances of dying when flying Flea are 5%. Which airline would you rather fly?
Jumbo crashes kill 500 people at a time, and Flea crashes kill 5 people at time, so a simpleton might conclude that it's a lot safer to fly Flea than Jumbo. But he would be wrong. And 10 times more likely to be dead.
Of course, thirdwitness will side with the simpleton, because the bogus reasoning involved in the simpleton's conclusion is exactly the same as the Society's with regard to earthquakes.
: You can twist statistics all you want to try to support you view.
You are the one who is twisting the statistics. In my post # 4728 on the Gentile times thread ( http://www.jehovahs-witness.com/12/118775/57.ashx ) I posted a link ( http://home.comcast.net/~alanf00/essays/Quake_Charts.pdf ) to some informational charts on earthquakes. Several charts prove that the 69 years just after 1914 were statistically indistinguishable from the preceding 69 years in terms of number of deaths per year, and also from a 69 year period 200 years earlier. Furthermore, the absolute number of deaths in those periods was nearly the same. Here are the average figures:
1915-1983: Total killed: 1,210,597 Average killed per year: 17,545
1847-1914: Total killed: 1,199,973 Average killed per year: 17,391
1715-1783: Total killed: 1,373,845 Average killed per year: 19,911
Even if we eliminate the 1737 India quake (assuming the 300,000 deaths were actually due to a cyclone), the 18th century figures are:
1715-1783: Total killed: 1,073,845 Average killed per year: 15,563
Clearly, based on available records, the period since 1914 was not statistically different from other periods. 1914 brought no change in earthquake deaths, magnitudes or frequencies. The Watchtower Society has admitted as much, and has reverted to the extremely simpleminded claim, "Jesus said there would be quakes; we see quakes; therefore he was right."
: The fact is that Jesus said that there would be great earthquakes in one place after another. There are.
That's like predicting that the sky will be blue, the grass will be green and young men will lust after young women.
: And the earthquakes since 1914 have killed more people on average per year than before 1914, a lot more.
Using exactly the same 'reasoning' that 'proves' that JWs are now experiencing a 130-fold increase in gross sexual immorality.
: Jesus was right.
: JWs are right.
: When a person makes a list of the greatest earthquakes do they put on the list some earthquake in the middle of nowhere that might have registered a 10 on the richter scale but did no damage to civilization. Of course not.
The Watchtower Society did exactly that back around 1983. The bogus results appear in various WTS publications, including the Reasoning book.
: I don't think Jesus had in mind an in depth study of quakes and their magnitudes throughout history to determine if great quakes were in one place after another.
That's right. All he said was that people shouldn't claim that earthquakes were a harbinger of his coming.
: I believe he had in mind that to the normal person looking at world events it would be evident that earthquakes would do more damage in terms of destruction and loss of life than previously. And they have.
Your claims have repeatedly been demonstrated to be false.
And of course, you cannot explain why it's bogus to claim that Jehovah's Witnesses today have a problem with gross sexual immorality 130 times worse than 70 years ago. Why? Because even though the statistics are sound, they're misused to reach this conclusion. And it's exactly the same misuse of statistics that you and the Watchtower Society have used in their bogus claims about earthquakes.