Are the statistics out yet?

by slimboyfat 169 Replies latest watchtower beliefs

• 

  Jeffro

  slimboyfat:

  If the growth rate was consistently overstated for many years you would end up with JWs claiming a lot more members than other measures produce.

  It's that kind of statement that makes me think you either do not understand, or are otherwise deliberately misrepresenting, the way they self-report their membership. Because they only count 'publishers', it is not at all the case that the higher growth rate of that measure would "end up with JWs claiming a lot more members than other measures produce".
  

  (It was also just after that that slimboyfat jumped from talking about JW-reported statistics to secular reporting of JW statistics.)
  
• 

  Jeffro

  slimboyfat:

  It’s this point you contradicted me on on page 3

  The JW numbers look “bad” … until you compare them with most other Christian groups which are in severe decline in the west. Compared with other Christian groups the growth of JWs bucks the trend of decline.
  

  To which you replied

  No. Not a valid representation of my position at all. I have explained the reasons previously and you either don’t understand, or you ignore the reasons why JW rates of growth seem higher than for other denominations because it goes against your narrative.

  Egregiously dishonest. Your statement that I described as "not a valid representation of my position" was explicitly your assertion that:

  Your only argument boils down to the claim that the definition of “publisher” this year may be a bit more liberal than the definition of “publisher” last year

  https://www.jehovahs-witness.com/topic/5183083536449536/statistics-out-yet?page=4#5232185313853440

  And at no point in this discussion did I even bring up the changed publisher requirements.
  
• 

  slimboyfat

  Your point about population growth is true. It doesn’t alter the fact that JWs are growing while most other groups are declining. That’s all I claimed and that’s what you originally objected to. Now you call comparisons “simplistic”? In what respect?

  As I said above, my claim was that JWs are growing while other churches are declining. I at no time claimed there were no reasons for that fact. Of course there are reasons, and preaching, disfellowshipping and other factors are involved.

  At the same time, it’s worth noting that Christadelphians and Brethren also disfellowship and yet they are declining. So disfellowshipping alone doesn’t seem to be a magic bullet for growth.

  Most wealthy countries are secularising at an accelerating rate and most churches are experiencing significant declines. In that environment it is noteworthy that JWs have thus far managed to keep growing. I doubt they will be able to defy gravity forever, however, and I would expect they will start declining too, at some point, because the social forces producing secularisation are strong.

  I’d recommend Ronald Inglehart’s recent book Religion’s Sudden Decline for an overview of the extent of secularisation in recent decades and the reasons for it.
• 

  Jeffro

  slimboyfat:

  Have you got any explanation why the New Zealand census confirms that JWs are growing compared with other Christian groups?

  There is no reason I would need to 'explain' it.

  The most recent census in New Zealand was in 2018, and the one prior was in 2013. The census for this year has not yet begun.
  

  According to the New Zealand census data, from 2013 to 2018 Jehovah's Witnesses went from being 0.46% of the population to 0.43%. So they too are not keeping up with population growth.
  

  I have also already shown that JW growth in Australia was significantly below population growth.
  
• 

  Jeffro

  slimboyfat:

  It doesn’t alter the fact that JWs are growing while most other groups are declining. That’s all I claimed and that’s what you originally objected to.

  No. It's not. I originally objected to your incorrect assessment about the way JWs count membership.
  

  To the extent that it is true that mainstream denominations are in decline, this is fairly mundane and some of the reasons have already been provided.
  

  At the same time, it’s worth noting that Christadelphians and Brethren also disfellowship and yet they are declining. So disfellowshipping alone doesn’t seem to be a magic bullet for growth.

  Christadelphian 'disfellowshipping' does not require social shunning. I don't know much about the Brethren, but according to what I've checked, shunning those who simply leave (as opposed to committing other specific ‘serious sins’) has not been mandatory since 2002, at least among the Exclusive Brethren.
  
• 

  Jeffro

  I predict a stated increase between 2% and 3% in the JW-reported figures for the 2022 report, which will be touted as ‘impressive’, but will actually constitute poor net growth since 2019. See also the footnote under 2nd paragraph of the Letter section here.
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  JW GoneBad

  A JW just informed me that not a word was mentioned about world wide 2022 totals in the January 2023 Governing Body Update #1. GB Sanderson talks about increase in Bible Studies...but that's it...no statistics...no numbers as to what was accomplished by way of baptisms, publisher count or increases of any sort for 2022. Already into the second week of 2023 & still no JW Yearbook...no country by country 2022 Grand Totals...Inquiring minds want to know what's with the delay!
• 

  Jeffro

  JW Yearbooks were discontinued in 2017. But the ‘service report’ will likely not be too far off. It is somewhat interesting that in 2021 they boasted about memorial ‘attendance’ (even though people didn’t even have to leave home to ‘attend’) at the annual meeting around October of the same year as well as at the end of that year, and again in the January 2023 Watchtower. Yet apparently not so much to boast about for the 2022 stats. But as I said in my earlier post, the predicted inflated growth since the Covid-related declines will be milked for all it can.
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  Hellothere

  Well them boasting about imaginary bible study's but not mention anything about yearly report can only mean one thing. The numbers for 2022 or not gonna be good. Only reason they wanted too get everyone "excited" and "trilled" about bible study's, Norway and piooner hours must be the bad news that coming with yearly report.
• 

  was a new boy

  It's Really Bad.

  
  

  'THE good news or the bad news—which do you want to hear first? When asked this question, many opt to absorb the bad news first in hopes that the good news will linger in the mind.'

  
  

  https://wol.jw.borg/en/wol/d/r1/lp-e/1997880 -b
  

  
  Psalm 112:6-8
  

  New World Translation of the Holy Scriptures (Study Edition)

  6 He will never be shaken.

  7 He will not fear bad news.

  8 His heart is unshakable;* he is not afraid;