Are the statistics out yet?

by slimboyfat 169 Replies latest watchtower beliefs

  • Anony Mous
    Anony Mous

    @slimboy: a lot of churches are growing, so is the population. The question is whether they are growing smaller or growing bigger. They aren’t growing larger even in comparison to the US population, they’re growing about half the speed of the world population. This means that the only growth is their children if half of them are staying in.

    The other problem is that the method of counting has changed wildly since 2000. In 2000, you needed to make 10 hours a month in service to even be counted as an active publisher. Now you just need to show up at a Zoom meeting.

    I don’t think the WTBTS will be dying anytime soon. The entire organization can literally be ran on a few million, maybe less, budget annually for running a website, video and speech productions.

  • slimboyfat
    slimboyfat
    a lot of churches are growing

    Can you name some? I don’t know of any in Scotland and the census numbers from Australia posted above show churches in decline there too, the exceptions being JWs and Seventh-day Adventists.

    It is true that JWs in some countries are growing slower than the overall population, so that is a relative decline. But even where this is true it is a very small relative decline. In 2002 the ration of JWs to the population in the Britain was 1/470, and in 2022 it was 1/474, slightly down. In the United Sates it was 1/280 in 2002 and in 2022 it was 1/272, a small overall improvement.

    Other churches are declining in membership numbers even without taking into account population increase, and this is what people are usually referring to when describing the membership of a church as growing or declining.

    I was an active JW in 2000. It’s not true that you needed 10 hours to count as a publisher in 2000 - one hour was enough. As I pointed out above, if anything other churches are more prone to dilute the criteria for membership in order to improve the membership numbers. Even so they are declining by their own measures as well as outside measures.

  • Phizzy
    Phizzy

    What I find great about the figures for "Jehovah's Worldwide Organisation",is that year on year, and this one is no exception, the global population outstrips their "growth", and by a not insignificant number ! Even percentage wise !

  • Anony Mous
    Anony Mous

    According to the Vatican The number of Catholics in the world grew by more than 15 million from 2018 to 2019. Other churches across the US, including Presbyterians are claiming a growth in absolute members too, where membership is actually defined by those that tithe, not just attendants. Many religions don’t take an accurate census though.

    I think proportionally to the population all religion is declining but in absolute numbers they are increasing. I think there are less people claiming to be of one or the other religion, so polls like Pew research may see actual absolute number decreases, but if you use those kind of statistics there would probably be an estimated 15M witnesses (many that left but still claim it as their primary religious affiliation)

    Back in the day I was slacking and told by the elders that if I didn’t at least put in the average publisher hours (9-10h) I would be marked inactive. I even got handed back my report when I didn’t do anything but marked 4 hours just to pretend, told I shouldn’t bother to turn in that low. Only the elderly could apply for an exception and then they still had to do at least 1-2 hours, talking to nurses and doctors and everyone else they could.

  • Disillusioned JW
    Disillusioned JW

    slimboyfat, regarding churches in the USA, while nearly all of the denominational churches are declining in membership (according to polls, such as by Pew Research), in my community I get the impression that a number of so-called nondenominational churches and a number of individual 'Bible Church' nondenominational congregations are growing in the USA. Furthermore, there are news articles saying that many nondenominational churches are growing.

    See https://www.christianitytoday.com/news/2022/august/nondenominational-growth-mainline-protestant-decline-survey.html (called "Nondenominational Churches Are Adding Millions of Members. Where Are They Coming From?") which says the following.

    "Over the last decade Baptists, Methodists, Lutherans, Presbyterians, and every other Protestant family has declined except for those who say they are nondenominational.

    The 2020 US Religion Census, due out later this year, tallied 4,000 more nondenominational churches than in 2010, and nondenominational church attendance rose by 6.5 million during that time.

    At the same time, mainline Protestant Christianity is collapsing following five decades of declines. In the mid-1970s, nearly a third of Americans were affiliated with denominations like the United Methodist Church, the United Church of Christ, and the Episcopal Church. But now, just one in ten Americans are part of the mainline tradition.

    In 2021, nondenominational Protestants in the United States outnumbered mainline Protestants. But what is causing this tremendous shift in the church landscape?

    ... What is driving the growth of nondenominational churches? While in the past it resulted from a significant portion of individuals leaving a mainline tradition, now it looks like nondenominational congregations are increasing by taking in people who were raised Catholic—which is about a quarter of the general population."

    The demographic in the USA of the decline of denominational churches and the rapid growth rate of nondenominational churches is a a problem for the WT since the WT's JW religion is very sectarian (claiming they are the only religion approved by God) and is very controlling (with the control being held by one governing body at a central location, rather than being held by each congregation independently).

    See also https://www.christianitytoday.com/news/2022/november/religion-census-nondenominational-church-growth-nons.html (called "Nondenominational’ Is Now the Largest Segment of American Protestant") which says the following.

    'Call it the rise of the nons.

    Not the “nones,” who have commanded attention for years, as the number of Americans who don’t identify with a specific religious tradition has grown from just 5 percent during the Cold War to around 30 percent today. This is the nons—nondenominational Christians, people who shake off organizational affiliations, disassociate from tradition, and free themselves from established church brands.

    The number of nondenominational churches has surged by about 9,000 congregations over the course of a decade, according to new decennial data released by the US Religion Census. Little noticed, they have been quietly remaking the religious landscape.

    There are now five times more nondenominational churches than there are Presbyterian Church (USA) congregations. There are six times more nondenominational churches than there are Episcopal. And there are 3.4 million more people in nondenominational churches than there are in Southern Baptist ones.

    If “nondenominational” were a denomination, it would be the largest Protestant one, claiming more than 13 percent of churchgoers in America.

    ... Nondenominational Christians don’t show up in the polls that sample and survey American religion, because people don’t think of “nondenominational” as an identity. They are more likely just to say “Christian,” or perhaps “Protestant.” If prompted, they might specify whether or not they think of themselves as evangelical or born again. But few if any say “nondenominational.”

    The US Religion Census catches the growing number of nondenominational Christians, however, because it is an actual census, with teams of people counting congregations and collecting reports of the number of people attending particular churches.

    ... in 2020, the US Religious Census team found 44,319 nondenominational congregations, with an estimated 21 million adherents. That makes nondenominational Christians the first or second largest group of Protestants in America, depending on how one counts. The Southern Baptists have about 7,000 more churches, but 3.4 million fewer people.'

    'The lead researcher, Scott Thumma, ... one of a few experts and close observers who have noted the nondenominational growth over the past decade, said he thinks there are several factors driving what he describes as individualism at the congregational level.”

    It’s an expression of “organizational individualism that parallels personal individualism,” he said, and allows churches to slip out from under the burden of some cultural baggage.

    “It is an evangelistic advantage,” Thumma said. “A potential attender at a nondenominational church doesn’t have cultural expectations of what they might find inside the way they do if the brand is Episcopalian or Assemblies of God or Southern Baptist. Rather, the visitor has to experience the worship firsthand.”

    ... The growth of the nons has also been supported by an ecosystem of publishers and parachurch organizations that produce nondenominational religious content. Historically, denominations supplied churches with music, Sunday school curricula, and Bible study curricula. They also arranged mission and service trips. But that has changed, and congregations are more likely now to shop around.

    Today even some denominational churches end up being “functionally nondenominational,” Thumma said, “defecting in place or quiet quitting … and crafting their own local brand.”

    ... Whatever the explanation, it’s clear the nons are growing, just like the nones. And in the coming years, it’s likely more Protestant churches will leave denominational names behind.'

    These days some of the devout church going Christians (especially ones attending nondenominational churches/congregations) I personally know tell me, when I ask what their religion is, they have no religion though they also say they are Christian.They also say that Christianity is not a religion (and that religion is about rule or rituals), but rather a relationship with Jesus Christ.

    You are correct in saying the following. "It’s not true that you needed 10 hours to count as a publisher in 2000 - one hour was enough." The year 2001, or so, was the last year I was an active JW (except for attending the Memorial and local circuit assemblies, or local district conventions, up through the year 2007 or so). But even though, the religion had the policy (one which I think an elder told me) that if hours in a given month with less than one whole hour, then the JW could roll over the fractional hour into the following month's total. I did that during several months. Thus, if in one month I had 0.25 hours of field service time and if in the next month I had 0.75 hours of time, then I reported zero hours for one month an one whole hour for the next month.

    slimboyfat, what do you think about my post (on page 15 of this topic thread) regarding how I think it would be feasible for the WT to change its disassociation policy?

  • Corney
    Corney

    In 2000, you needed to make 10 hours a month in service to even be counted as an active publisher. Now you just need to show up at a Zoom meeting.

    Yup, you just need to be accepted as a member after one or more interviews and a sort of probationary period, to avoid breaching a strict code of conduct (at least openly), to have regular contacts with local leadership and to submit to (or at least make appearance of submission to) their authority.

  • ScenicViewer
    ScenicViewer

    @ Disillusioned JW,

    Thanks for all the information on the growth of nondenominational churches. That was very enlightening.

  • joe134cd
    joe134cd

    I enjoyed the analogy of the sand sand castle, with the waves of the internet destroying it.

    I saw a similar thing in my local area, with regard to the aging population of JWs. I have been physically gone from the JW religion, for just over a decade. Prior to this I spent about 18-24 months as a PIMO. During this time I was assigned the task of counting the meeting attendance. 4 things really stood out to me.

    (1) at any given meeting there was an average of 20-25% of publishers who weren’t there.

    (2)If you had the Sunday afternoon meeting there were virtually no under 25 year olds present. Guess they had better things to do.

    (3)I too noticed a similar thing to the previous poster. At least 2/3 of the congregation were 50 years or older. I also noticed particularly at conventions the absence of those in the 18-30 year old bracket.

    (4)The were no elders in my congregation who didn’t have a full head of grey hair.

    Generally speaking I found it an aging religion. Where by a quarter of that membership was absent. Bearing in mind that this is ten years ago. I’d hate to think what it looks like now. I’m just so glad I got out when I did.

  • slimboyfat
    slimboyfat
    Disillusioned JW I think you are right that people who don’t believe in Watchtower anymore are likely not contributing any money, so it wouldn’t be a loss to Watchtower financially if they stopped attending.

    Every religion has a significant proportion of ambivalent or marginal members, it is in no way unique to JWs. Sociologists have sometimes discussed this ‘free rider problem’ in relation to religious groups. However some argue that free riders are actually essential to the overall well-being of a religious community because they perform a number of crucial functions: such as presenting a variety of ways of being a JW to outsiders and potential converts, being used as examples not to follow by the leadership, and free riders often convert into zealous members themselves, if their circumstances change, or go back and forth in their commitment levels, so they provide a pool from which hardcore support can be sustained over time.

    I don’t think the legal pressure on Watchtower to change their disfellowshipping practice is all that great. We’ll see how it plays out in Norway, but even then it’s only one small country, and even if other countries follow, Watchtower can describe it as discrimination. I wish Watchtower would change, but disfellowshipping seems to work for Watchtower so why would they change it?

    Nondenominational churches are often churches that have split from denominations. Many churches are disaffiliating from the Methodists in the United States at the moment over the gay marriage issue. In Scotland a congregation split from the Church of Scotland over the same issue, calling itself the ‘Tron Church’. Conservative members from other congregations joined them, producing a measure of ‘growth’ for their small group. But considering these members came from a number of congregations, and the church going population as a whole is going down, I don’t think it's all that accurate to describe it as growth. It’s more like a temporary cluster for conservatives to gather around amidst overall decline across all churches.
  • joe134cd
    joe134cd

    I guess what Slim is saying “ it more a reshuffle, rather than actual growth.”

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