Posts by besty

153

IPCC Climate Change Report........

by cantleave in

.....states that there is 95% certainty climate change is man made.

people are still saying we don't need to do anything about it.. if you were told there is a 95% risk of you dying if you don't change your diet, wouldn't you change your diet?.

besty

As far as I can tell, you havn't substantiated the claim that there is a 97% AGW consensus amongst climate scientists

I already did - Page 4 of this thread.

Although it is valid to crtiticize methodology, it is also possible to attempt to replicate results. If you have an alternative peer-reviewed paper which shows climate scientists are not in near-unanimous consensus then please share with the group. (Of course the 3% deniers also serve to destroy the conspiracy myth and provide evidence of the scientific method being alive and well - it just so happens they are almost certainly wrong)

Aside from Doran/Zimmerman finding that 75/77 climate scientists attribute rising temps to human activity there are several other similar studies with similar outcomes analysed here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surveys_of_scientists'_views_on_climate_change

1 - A survey of 928 peer-reviewed abstracts on the subject 'global climate change' published between 1993 and 2003 shows that not a single paper rejected the consensus position that global warming is man caused (Oreskes 2004).

2 - A follow-up study by the Skeptical Science team of over 12,000 peer-reviewed abstracts on the subjects of 'global warming' and 'global climate change' published between 1991 and 2011 found that of the papers taking a position on the cause of global warming, over 97% agreed that humans are causing it (Cook 2013). The scientific authors of the papers were also contacted and asked to rate their own papers, and again over 97% whose papers took a position on the cause said humans are causing global warming.

I hope that answers your question. Thanks for the opportunity to elaborate.

Now your facts or evidence showing an alternative number for the position of climate scientists please.

153

IPCC Climate Change Report........

by cantleave in

.....states that there is 95% certainty climate change is man made.

people are still saying we don't need to do anything about it.. if you were told there is a 95% risk of you dying if you don't change your diet, wouldn't you change your diet?.

besty

@tt2c

Projecting from data availiable, the reality is there will eventually be another ice age, whether any human exists on this planet or not. For this reason, taking an extremist or religiously apocolyptical position over this issue doesn't make much sense, and I don't understand how folks can argue that altering our activities is going to somehow change this destiny

In summary - climate has always changed, we can't do anything about it and an Ice Age is coming so why bother.

What tt2c doesn't mention along with the graph he posted is the thoughts of the author of the study. Dr Jean Robert Petit is possibly the foremost expert on ice cores and this study is one of the most cited geo-sciences paper of all time. He says:

A salient correlation between greenhouse gases and temperature suggested from the 150-kyrs record was fully confirmed for the four climatic cycles with an almost perfect covariance between temperature and CO2.

All climatic records cited above contain periodicity at orbital frequencies (typically, 100, 40 and 20 kyrs), conforming with the marine records, as well as the astronomical theory of climate (Milankovich theory).

Present-day atmospheric burdens of these two important greenhouse gases [carbon dioxide and methane] seem to have been unprecedented during the past 420,000 years.

With industrial development and anthropologic activity, massive burning of fossil carbon as well as intensification of agriculture released exponential amounts of CO2 and CH4 over the last 150 years. Present atmospheric composition well surpasses all maximum concentrations from the ice records over the last 420 kyrs (30% more CO2, 300% more CH4).

http://in-cites.com/papers/Jean-RobertPetit.html

I think it is safe to say he is one of the 97% consensus of climate scientists which tt2c denies exist.

153

IPCC Climate Change Report........

by cantleave in

.....states that there is 95% certainty climate change is man made.

people are still saying we don't need to do anything about it.. if you were told there is a 95% risk of you dying if you don't change your diet, wouldn't you change your diet?.

besty

@tt2c

I havn't seen ice core samples mentioned on here yet

Yep - change the subject without answering my question on the point you just raised.

Classy.

Let me remind you:

Where is the peer-reviewed paper showing a different figure for climate change consensus? Link please.

153

IPCC Climate Change Report........

by cantleave in

.....states that there is 95% certainty climate change is man made.

people are still saying we don't need to do anything about it.. if you were told there is a 95% risk of you dying if you don't change your diet, wouldn't you change your diet?.

besty

@SBF

You mentioned disconfirmatory evidence and referred to a Der Spiegel article purporting to show that global temperatures had not risen in accordance with IPCC predictions.

What is the other side of the story? Lets look at IPCC AR5 to see what they say about their own predictions.

IPCC AR5 Figure 1.4. Solid lines and squares represent measured average global surface temperature changes by NASA (blue), NOAA (yellow), and the UK Hadley Centre (green). The colored shading shows the projected range of surface warming in the IPCC First Assessment Report (FAR; yellow), Second (SAR; green), Third (TAR; blue), and Fourth (AR4; red).

Since 1990, global surface temperatures have warmed at a rate of about 0.15°C per decade, within the range of model projections of about 0.10 to 0.35°C per decade. As the IPCC notes,

"global climate models generally simulate global temperatures that compare well with observations over climate timescales ... The 1990–2012 data have been shown to be consistent with the [1990 IPCC report] projections, and not consistent with zero trend from 1990 ... the trend in globally-averaged surface temperatures falls within the range of the previous IPCC projections."

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2013/oct/01/ipcc-global-warming-projections-accurate

I'd like your thoughts on the Guardian article, particularly as it relates to the errors in the Der Spiegel article you cited.

153

IPCC Climate Change Report........

by cantleave in

.....states that there is 95% certainty climate change is man made.

people are still saying we don't need to do anything about it.. if you were told there is a 95% risk of you dying if you don't change your diet, wouldn't you change your diet?.

besty

You didn't mention that 66.4% of those 12,000 papers considered in the Cook study made no assertion that warming is AGW caused.

Where is the peer-reviewed paper showing a different figure for climate change consensus? Link please.

Some things are taken as a fact and don't need endless repeating.

100% of recent papers didn't mention the fact that gravity makes things fall down and the fact that the sun is in the middle of the solar sysytem.

I encourage anyone interested in the methodology of the Cook 2011 paper on the 97% consensus to read it for themselves - don't rely on me or anyone else to predigest the facts for you. (Be wary when no other contradictory evidence is presented)

http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/2/024024/article

10

Active topics seems screwy

by Simon in

i noticed a few times that the active topics list seemed a little messed up.

i'll take a look at it..

besty

asked and answered

awesome tech support you enjoy from the forum admins simon

153

IPCC Climate Change Report........

by cantleave in

.....states that there is 95% certainty climate change is man made.

people are still saying we don't need to do anything about it.. if you were told there is a 95% risk of you dying if you don't change your diet, wouldn't you change your diet?.

besty

if we don't outlaw automobiles and make people ride bicycles tomorrow we're all gonna die.

I actually haven't seen an extreme view like that as part of any policy document. It would be great to have a reasonable exchange of views on policy but step 1 is accepting there is an issue.

153

IPCC Climate Change Report........

by cantleave in

.....states that there is 95% certainty climate change is man made.

people are still saying we don't need to do anything about it.. if you were told there is a 95% risk of you dying if you don't change your diet, wouldn't you change your diet?.

besty

I think global warming is more likely true than not, I just have growing reservations

Its just bizarre to me that your thought process is moving in the opposite direction to science which was settled a long time back, as far as the 1970's, on the net effect of adding signiifcantly more CO2 to the system.

For a traditionally conservative group (scientists) to persuade almost every government on the planet to sign off on a document that agrees with 95% confidence in their assessment is quite an achievement.

153

IPCC Climate Change Report........

by cantleave in

.....states that there is 95% certainty climate change is man made.

people are still saying we don't need to do anything about it.. if you were told there is a 95% risk of you dying if you don't change your diet, wouldn't you change your diet?.

besty

the recent disconfirmatory data

Assuming you mean the single datapoint of surface temperatures within a cherrypicked timeframe not rising fast enough in a straight line of your choice, what do you make of all the confirmatory datapoints?

air temperature over land

sea-surface temperature

air temperature over oceans

sea level

ocean heat

humidity and tropospheric temperature in the “active-weather” layer of the atmosphere closest to the Earth’s surface.

declining Arctic sea ice

retreating glaciers

spring snow cover in the Northern hemisphere

Do you need me to provide recent references for each of these which indicate human activity is having a detrimental effect on observable evidence?

Or are you ready to accept the science?

153

IPCC Climate Change Report........

by cantleave in

.....states that there is 95% certainty climate change is man made.

people are still saying we don't need to do anything about it.. if you were told there is a 95% risk of you dying if you don't change your diet, wouldn't you change your diet?.

besty

@SBF

the article you quote pretty much sums up my position on this:

I've decided who to trust, and it's mainstream scientific opinion: the Royal Society, the Royal Institution, Nasa, the US National Academy of Sciences, the US Geological Survey, the IPCC, the national science bodies of 30 or so other countries. And that gives me a possible route out of the confirmation-bias trap: I have, in advance, outsourced my judgment to expert bodies. If several of them changed their position, I would change mine. It's far from perfect, but short of becoming a climate scientist myself, it's the only option I have; otherwise my reasonable belief that the climate is changing due to human behaviour becomes an article of faith. As it is, although it is mediated through authority, it's still, I hope, based on empirical data, on the scientific method.

I'm unclear why you (and other deniers on JWD) have chosen an alternative position.