Posts by slimboyfat

109

Why disfellowship must be eliminated for the survival of the WT itself

by TheScientist in

this topic i digress about why the watchtower relaxing the rules of disfellowship is essential for its survival.

many things i'm going to say are not my ideas, some are, the point is, i'm condensing everything in a logical and concise way.. the first thing we have to keep in mind is that the wt's main objective in instituting disfellowship has always been not to lose members because of the damage that a dissident could do, or to avoid gaining new members because of the bad reputation of a confessed sinner in the his/her region.

in the end, the more active members, the more money to the coffers.. in this case of disfellowship due to apostasy, to avoid any spark, texts were sought out of context that even prohibited saying "hi".

slimboyfat

The Scientist

You are aware that JWs consistently number far higher in national censuses compared with their own statistics? This is in contrast with other religious groups.

As one example the 2010 census in Brazil showed that 1.4 million self-identified as JW. This is hundreds of thousands higher than the publisher figure given by Watchtower.

By contrast the same census found only 226,000 identified themselves as Mormons. This was far lower than the 1.17:million members claimed by the Mormon church.

Mormons exaggerated their numbers by over 400% whereas Watchtower underestimated JW numbers by more than 50% compared with the census figure of self-identified JWs.

This pattern is repeated across all countries that count religion in the census: far more describe themselves as Jehovah’s Witnesses than are claimed as publishers by Watchtower.

109

Why disfellowship must be eliminated for the survival of the WT itself

by TheScientist in

this topic i digress about why the watchtower relaxing the rules of disfellowship is essential for its survival.

many things i'm going to say are not my ideas, some are, the point is, i'm condensing everything in a logical and concise way.. the first thing we have to keep in mind is that the wt's main objective in instituting disfellowship has always been not to lose members because of the damage that a dissident could do, or to avoid gaining new members because of the bad reputation of a confessed sinner in the his/her region.

in the end, the more active members, the more money to the coffers.. in this case of disfellowship due to apostasy, to avoid any spark, texts were sought out of context that even prohibited saying "hi".

slimboyfat

Well as usual my views don’t seem to be particularly popular here lol.

But sorry, I do think it is faintly ridiculous to be talking about Watchtower battling for “survival” at this point, when compared with most other churches in western countries they are in rude health to put it mildly.

I went through a phase on this forum when I thought JWs were in real difficulty, especially financially, because of the statements they were making about cash flow, and because I personally knew people who had left, and the rest were all getting older.

https://www.jehovahs-witness.com/topic/6278706236489728/watchtower-organisation-all-over-bar-shouting

What changed between writing that thread and now? Two things. Firstly, I’ve since visited dozens of other churches and have witnesses first hand what real decline actually looks like. It is miles away, and much worse than any ‘decline’ at the KH. Secondly, despite everything I said in that thread, JWs have still managed to keep growing. At what point do you allow facts to alter your perception? Six years ago I thought JWs would start declining rapidly soon. Six years later they are more numerous than ever. It’s not what I expected but it is a fact.

Six year years ago when I made that thread, average publishers that year was 8,248,982. Now it’s 8,514,983. That up by quarter of a million. Compared to past growth it’s pretty poor, but clearly it’s not a decline, never mind anything like struggling for “survival”. Most other churches would be absolutely delighted with those numbers. In Britain the Methodist church for example loses around 4% of their membership annually. They have declined by a half in under 20 years. They are indeed struggling for “survival”; JWs are not.

Check out this website for some perspective on churches that are genuinely in decline.

https://churchmodel.org.uk/church-growth-models/limited-enthusiasm/demographics-2/methodist-church-2000-2020/

54

Is AI going to change the world?

by Reasonfirst in

jw
friends

had lunch with a friend, whose a lecturer in the accounting dept.

of one of australia's best universities.

he told me he expects to lose his job at some point in the next 5 years, as the accounting dept, will disappear, as all accounting will be done by ai programs, so why teach it.. if his fears are correct, that means that any profession that involves the mind, may one day face the same future.

slimboyfat

If you can get past the terrible screechy voice I think this debate was excellent. The woman made many great points and the guy was utterly clueless. He got completely sidetracked by whether AI can be conscious (it can’t) and whether it will ever work the same way as a human brain (it won’t). It doesn’t need to be conscious or like a human brain in order to be dangerous, quite the reverse. If anything I think the woman wasn’t strident enough in laying out the dangers. Our situation is probably significantly worse than even she was arguing. Maybe she didn’t want to be too pessimistic for the audience.

https://www.youtube.com/live/1rnam1w8ztM?si=vMcvnYTU-_J81t5t

3150

It's been a long 9 years Lloyd Evans / John Cedars (continued)

by Simon in

jw
friends

uh oh, looks like the mega thread gave up the ghost, so while i investigate / fix it just continue the discussion here .... it's been a long 9 years lloyd evans / john cedars.

slimboyfat

“When I’m on my death bed the biggest regret I’ll have is knowing that I had a job every person in the world fucking would kill for and I fucked it up”

Boogie - a YouTuber brought down by addiction to prostitutes and generally being a nasty person

https://youtu.be/_QgDx0RIWY8?si=jgc5rQ0tXiArQh9j

109

Why disfellowship must be eliminated for the survival of the WT itself

by TheScientist in

this topic i digress about why the watchtower relaxing the rules of disfellowship is essential for its survival.

many things i'm going to say are not my ideas, some are, the point is, i'm condensing everything in a logical and concise way.. the first thing we have to keep in mind is that the wt's main objective in instituting disfellowship has always been not to lose members because of the damage that a dissident could do, or to avoid gaining new members because of the bad reputation of a confessed sinner in the his/her region.

in the end, the more active members, the more money to the coffers.. in this case of disfellowship due to apostasy, to avoid any spark, texts were sought out of context that even prohibited saying "hi".

slimboyfat

There were 269,000 baptised in 2022/3 apparently. Baptisms were lower between 2018 and 2023, yet they have still grown throughout the period.

Since JWs are still growing, “at current trends” they will never disappear, but keep on growing slowly.

Slow growth + time ≠ decline

The only way they will disappear is if trends worsen, not stay the same.

For what it’s worth I think they probably will start declining at some point. But it hasn’t happened yet.

7

Will Self on JWs

by Slidin Fast in

jw
friends

will self is a well known thinker, journalist and writer here in the uk.

i think this article is absolutely on the money.

in any case, well worth a read.

slimboyfat

The photo is excellent, apart from anything else.

As for Will Self and the JWs, as a bystander it sometimes appears that people who are drawn to one another deserve each other, in this case it appears the perfect marriage of ignorance and arrogance.

109

Why disfellowship must be eliminated for the survival of the WT itself

by TheScientist in

this topic i digress about why the watchtower relaxing the rules of disfellowship is essential for its survival.

many things i'm going to say are not my ideas, some are, the point is, i'm condensing everything in a logical and concise way.. the first thing we have to keep in mind is that the wt's main objective in instituting disfellowship has always been not to lose members because of the damage that a dissident could do, or to avoid gaining new members because of the bad reputation of a confessed sinner in the his/her region.

in the end, the more active members, the more money to the coffers.. in this case of disfellowship due to apostasy, to avoid any spark, texts were sought out of context that even prohibited saying "hi".

slimboyfat

The number of baptisms has declined significantly as a percentage of members since the mid 1990s. The growth rate has declined significantly during this period as well. This is different than a decline in membership.

You can easily tell when JWs begin declining overall because the it’s when the number of members gets smaller year on year. So far this hasn’t happened apart from one year following 1975 and one year during the pandemic.

I very much agree that the number of congregations is a crucial statistic and there has indeed been a small decline in the number of congregations in recent years. It will be interesting to see if that continues. The number of publishers has also shown a decrease in Latin America in the past few years. JWs didn’t seem to bounce back in Latin America after the pandemic as they did elsewhere. It will be interesting to see what happens here too.

In contrast with JWs, most Protestant denominations are in steep decline in most western countries: not simply slow growth or few baptisms/converts, but actual, rapid decline in membership.

3150

It's been a long 9 years Lloyd Evans / John Cedars (continued)

by Simon in

jw
friends

uh oh, looks like the mega thread gave up the ghost, so while i investigate / fix it just continue the discussion here .... it's been a long 9 years lloyd evans / john cedars.

slimboyfat

He needs to fall somewhat below 387 to match his lowest level last year because that was before he added paid YouTube supporters (or whatever you call them) that he claimed amounted to 100 at one point. If it’s down to around 50 by now, as they were new supporters who perhaps dropped off at a quicker rate, then he’d need to fall below around 840 to match his lowest level last year.

The level of support he’s got at the moment must create huge indecision for him. It’s a lot of free money to simply walk away from, at the same time it’s galling for him that he enjoyed support from 900 patrons barely two years ago, and now has to cut his cloth each month on a level half that, and declining. He’ll probably ride it all the way down to 100s doing as little as he can along the way, and mess around wondering what to do next. Maybe he’ll become a vocal proponent of universal basic income.

109

Why disfellowship must be eliminated for the survival of the WT itself

by TheScientist in

this topic i digress about why the watchtower relaxing the rules of disfellowship is essential for its survival.

many things i'm going to say are not my ideas, some are, the point is, i'm condensing everything in a logical and concise way.. the first thing we have to keep in mind is that the wt's main objective in instituting disfellowship has always been not to lose members because of the damage that a dissident could do, or to avoid gaining new members because of the bad reputation of a confessed sinner in the his/her region.

in the end, the more active members, the more money to the coffers.. in this case of disfellowship due to apostasy, to avoid any spark, texts were sought out of context that even prohibited saying "hi".

slimboyfat

There’s a difference between lower baptism numbers (true) and decline in membership (not happened yet).

I agree with Phizzy that the criteria for DFing may change. Unofficially, it already has in my observation, because DFing is nowhere near as common now as it used to be. Back in the 80s and 90s it was a fairly regular occurrence, as was reinstatement. These days it hardly ever seems to happen. Why is that? Maybe people have got more savvy about avoiding getting DFed because of online advice and support. Maybe elders have become more reluctant to resort DFing for various reasons: aware that it looks bad to outsiders, don’t believe in it themselves. I think it’s a combination of these factors.

109

Why disfellowship must be eliminated for the survival of the WT itself

by TheScientist in

this topic i digress about why the watchtower relaxing the rules of disfellowship is essential for its survival.

many things i'm going to say are not my ideas, some are, the point is, i'm condensing everything in a logical and concise way.. the first thing we have to keep in mind is that the wt's main objective in instituting disfellowship has always been not to lose members because of the damage that a dissident could do, or to avoid gaining new members because of the bad reputation of a confessed sinner in the his/her region.

in the end, the more active members, the more money to the coffers.. in this case of disfellowship due to apostasy, to avoid any spark, texts were sought out of context that even prohibited saying "hi".

slimboyfat

the numbers continue to decline …

They have to begin declining before they can continue declining. Unlike the vast majority of churches JWs are holding their own in western countries and continuing to grow in many others. They suffered one year of decline during the pandemic, under 1%, and quickly recovered. Other churches lost huge numbers of members in the UK during the pandemic. Attendance at the Church of England is down by 20% and this may actually turn out to be an underestimate. The Church of Scotland needs to close hundreds of churches in the next few years to cope with the decline.

I have argued in the past that the Internet is a net benefit for WT in terms of dealing with dissidents. In the past when people discovered “it’s not the truth” there was not the easy option of joining a like minded group of people online. Instead they took their issues to their families and friends in the congregation to have it out. This was majorly disruptive in some cases, such as in Calgary where reportedly over 100 JWs left the organisation in the fallout from Jim Penton’s defection. These days that doesn’t happen because people choose to leave quietly instead, make contacts with other ex members, and don’t cause all that much trouble in their congregations.