I think JWs may be approaching a collapse in numbers or at least a significant decline. Because while JWs in some respects seem to be carrying on as before, with smaller increases, beneath the surface the core of the JW community has been steadily eroded. So that what appears as a solid structure, may have been reduced to an empty shell, awaiting a shock that will trigger collapse.
For years now we've had:
No book studies in homes to promote sense of community.
Special pioneers laid off, no longer providing backbone to many congregations.
Gilead missionaries no longer sent to promote growth in expanding territories.
Office of district overseer scrapped, so circuit overseers now have little prospect of "promotion".
Traditional form of door to door ministry undermined by being replaced by ineffective and disheartening cart witnessing.
Weird overlapping doctrines that don't even make sense on their own terms any more.
A growing realisation among many JWs that the organisation does have at least some problems with handling abuse, and the media are not totally lying about the subject.
Young JWs are choosing not to get baptised.
Instead many are choosing to get an education despite "counsel" to avoid.
The stance of JWs on gay people is now so out of step with mainstream society it is beginning to cause serious embarrassment, in particular for young JWs.
The average age of JWs is increasing. (Always a strong predictor of religious decline as shepherdless pointed out)
There is so little substance to the Watchtower literature these days there is little to keep JWs intellectually occupied.
Hardly anyone is converted to JWs through the ministry these days.
As print literature is abandoned, even the sense of achievement of "placing" physical literature is removed.
The idea that 1914 is any kind of anchor for the end times looks increasingly ridiculous.
Thousands of former bethelites have been reassigned, disheartened and disillusioned to local congregations.
Bethel service is a less realistic goal for young JWs as printing is being abandoned.
Decline breeds decline. The numbers have already turned south in many western countries, and declines have a tendency to reinforce further decline.
All these developments, and more, haven't produced significant declines yet. But they may have undermined the coherence and integrity of the JW edifice, such that it is now very vulnerable to any shock or trigger it may encounter.