Estimated 2004/5 Annual Service Report

TheListener

2004-2005 SERVICE YEAR BAPTISMS

(as reported in the U.S. KM)

Sept ’04 1,791

Oct ’04 2,680

Nov ’04 2,331

Dec ’04 1,923

Jan ’05 1,419

Feb ’05 1,441

Mar ’05 2,056

Apr ’05 2,543

May ’05 2,009

Jun ’05 ????(Jun ’04- 3,253)

Jul ’05 ????(Jul ’04- 5,536)

Aug ’05 ????(Aug’04-2,624)

TOTAL SO FAR FOR 2004/5 18,193

ADD 2004 FOR JUN-AUG 11,413 (using last year’s data)

ESTIMATED TOTAL BAPTIZED FOR U.S. BRANCH – 29,606

Obviously summer is the big membership drive due to the conventions.

The society could be in line for another year of 30,000 baptisms. Depending on how many leave we may have another zero growth year or maybe even a negative.

I’ve reviewed the District Convention baptism thread and it appears that the number baptized remains similar to last years conventions. Time will tell ; but if so about 30,000 baptized for the year is about right.

upside/down

I'm curious...

What is the natural average birthrate in the US?

Is there any "real" growth in the bOrg? I would think those numbers would be larger with just the raising and baptising of their "own" prodigy.

For as much damn work, that they "claim" to put into preaching...these are truly PATHETIC results.

For all the comparisons to a "sales force"... they should all be fired... If any company put as much into a new "client" as them and got the same return...they'd be bankrupt.

How long can they keep the cherade up?

u/d (of the actuarial class)

MidwichCuckoo

All the half-hearted and pseudo-dubs keep the stastics looking pretty reaonable. Not to mention the enhanced ministry hours.

ozziepost

They give the ratio of pubs to population in their annual report - well, estimated population at least.

ezekiel3

Considering that there were 40,000 a year leaving per year about 20 years ago, what does that say?

Negative net gain.

upside/down

Actually wasn't it 40K are getting DF'd...the far majority for "immorality"...(pent up little buggers)...

I wonder how many actually "leave"...

Can't someone extrapolate the numbers using morbidity tables and birthrates...for example we know how many have joined (baptismal counts)...we know approx. how many have been born into it (avg.)...we know how many people die on average...we have a starting point...and know how many there are right now.

There has to be a discrepency somewhere...you can't lose large numbers and not have some idea what that number is...can you?

So any mathematicians out there that can give us a good guesstimate of how many "leave" and don't go back?

My algebra isn't so hot these days...

u/d(of the numerically challenged class)

vitty

These numbers might sound pathetic, but each one is on a road to ruin not to mention the families of those who arent in the org ) it just makes me feel so sad !!

TheListener

I remember the 40k getting df'd for immorality, but was that U.S. only or international? And isn't that number pretty old? I mean they must be kicking out more than that by now; heeheeehee.

Just reviewing the total baptisms for 2003 and 2004 you get a sense that there is a steady influx of 30,000 baptized each year but the number leaving is what is changing. If the same number die/leave/kicked out as last year there should be 0 or negative growth this year.

I made this up:( I don't have the 2001-2004 numbers available. If someone can pm them to me I will update this sheet):

U.S. only 1989-2000
Year	Baptized	Avg. Pubs.	Avg. Pubs. Should be	Missing Pubs.
1989	48,358.00	788,709.00	---	---
1990	47,234.00	816,417.00	835,943.00	19,526.00
1991	44,583.00	846,028.00	861,000.00	14,972.00
1992	40,716.00	866,362.00	886,744.00	20,382.00
1993	41,581.00	878,841.00	907,943.00	29,102.00
1994	39,106.00	889,570.00	917,947.00	28,377.00
1995	43,909.00	912,002.00	933,479.00	21,477.00
1996	43,663.00	921,123.00	955,665.00	34,542.00
1997	45,220.00	929,471.00	966,343.00	36,872.00
1998	37,351.00	944,218.00	966,822.00	22,604.00
1999	32,585.00	940,650.00	976,803.00	36,153.00
2000	30,290.00	945,000.00	970,940.00	25,940.00

TheListener

Does anyone have the U.S. average pubs. and number baptized for 2001-2004?

blondie

I remember the 40k getting df'd for immorality, but was that U.S. only or international

international; the WTS numbers tend to be about 1% of the active publishers at the moment

Estimated 2004/5 Annual Service Report

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