In order to know whether the last three months are likely to produce figures above, equal or below last year, it may be helpful if the figures from the previous year are compared with those from this year already given.
Estimated 2004/5 Annual Service Report
by TheListener 21 Replies latest jw friends
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blondie
** w87 9/15 p. 13 Breathing This World’s "Air" Is Death-Dealing! ***
Unfortunately, during the 1986 service year, 37,426 had to be disfellowshipped from the Christian congregation, the greater number of them for practicing sexual immorality. And this does not include the even higher number reproved for immorality but not disfellowshipped because they were sincerely repentant.—Proverbs 28:13.
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w86 1/1 p. 13 Days Like "the Days of Noah" ***It is to be noted, also, that during the past year, 36,638 individuals had to be disfellowshipped from the Christian congregation, the greater number of them for practicing immorality.
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w94 4/1 p. 16 Are You Resisting the Spirit of the World? ***All Christians are familiar with Jehovah’s standards of morality and would never agree that such unclean practices as adultery, fornication, and homosexuality are acceptable. Yet, each year about 40,000 individuals are disfellowshipped from Jehovah’s organization. Why? In many cases because of these selfsame unclean practices.
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w89 4/1 p. 13 Hear What the Spirit Says to the Congregations ***Has Satan tried to introduce a Balaam or a Jezebel influence into the Christian congregation today? He certainly has, to the extent that almost 40,000 a year are disfellowshipped, most because of immorality.
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TheListener
You're right slimboy. I need to get the Jun-Aug numbers for '03 and '02 to get a more clear picture of what to expect will be reported this summer.
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TheListener
Society changes reporting periods for monthly service reports. See below in bold.
I reviewed the '02 and '03 baptism numbers for 2002 and 2003. They're on the CDRom under the KMs. Without posting the exact numbers, because I misplaced my notes, the rough numbers are as follows:
June '02 and '03 - around 5,000 baptized
July '02 and '03 - around 5,000 baptized
June and July have been the highest baptism months historically for all the years I reviewed on the CDRom.
August '02 and '03 - around 1,800 baptized (very approximate) I remember for sure that August was a sucky month for baptism numbers for many many years that I checked. Which surprised me since a lot of DCs are still occurring in August. Must be the loser districts that are assigned in August. :) I still believe based on my estimates that approximately 30,000 will be baptized this year. If I'm wrong do not resurrect this thread when the numbers come out. I'll deny deny deny. By the way these are God's numbers not men's I couldn't change them if I wanted to. :)
I was hoping to have the actual June baptism number this month from the September KM but the society has changed their reporting schedule. As reported in the September KM they will be pushing the reporting of the service reports back one month. Therefore June's report will be in the October KM instead of the September. Bummer.
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vitty
Its a revolving door, 40,000 getting baptized each year and the same number disfellowshipped. Does this number include DAs ppl. Id love to know the number who just walk away!
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TheListener
Vitty, no it doesn't include anyone leaving. Just an estimate of number baptized over the last service year. Last year there was 30,000 baptized and 0% growth. So 30,000 dies/df'd/da'd. HOpefully this year more will leave due to df'd/da'd (less from dying). Perhaps we can get a negative growth number; that would be nice.
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confusedjw
And if you don't turn in time for a month you become "irregular"
but if you don't turn in time for 6 months (I *think* that's the number) you become "inactive"
Do they stop counting "inactive" ones as JW's for these reports?
(Could anyone reading this from Bethel please comment? ~ Thanks)
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TheListener
Inactive ones are not counted. Only regular god fearing publishers.
Irregularity is the reason the total publishers can vary so much from month to month. One month they're crowing about a peak in the publisher count and the next month they're down by 20-40,000 again. Irregularity can be a barometer of discontent within the organization (imho).
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sir82
Another reason for the variation is the sometimes high number of people who forget to turn in reports for a month, then turn them in the next month.
So, you might have a situation like this:
100 publishers in congregation
In June, 95 publishers actually went out in service, but only 85 reports were made. So the congregation report for June shows 85 publishers.
In July, 92 publishers went out. 90 of them turned in a report, plus the 10 previously "missing" reports (95 - 85) from June. So, the July report sent to the Society shows 90 + 10 = 100 publishers (woo-hoo! it looks like 100% participation, but of course it isn't). And the cycle continues.
Pioneers at times fail to report also--so you should always take reports of "a new peak in pioneers!" with a grain of salt--perhaps several hundred of those "reporting" pioneers are making up reports from earlier months.
As secretary in a congregation a while back, there were sometimes 10-15 late reports per month.
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TheListener
Sir82 is right on. That's why in any number crunching with the society's figures you must use average numbers not peaks. The average numbers are rubbish but the peak numbers are worse.