by gsark 14 Replies latest jw friends
At the DC this weekend, they released Memorial attendance figures for the US. Funny thing
2001 2, 163, 602 (announced at DC, if I wrote tham down correctly)
2000 2, 153, 268 (2001 yearbook of JW's)
but in 2000 US baptisms were 30,290.
Does anyone see a problem with these figures except me.
Life is a roller coaster. Get in, sit down, shut up and hang on!
I'm sure they could make sense of it for you if you ask. Write the society and let us know what they say. HA!
YERUSALYIM
"Vanity! It's my favorite sin!"
[Al Pacino as Satan, in "DEVIL'S ADVOCATE"]
Just keep in mind that Memorial Attendance does not mean baptized JW. But the declining numbers have been a trend in Memorial Attendance and Active Publishers in recent years. Something that they don't like to admit. I'd like to think that if I were still an active JW, there would be something in my head going, "Huuuulllllooooo???" It's great that you're noticing details like this. You are much quicker than I was!
Billygoat
Does anyone see a problem with these figures except me.
Not particularly. I've noticed that memorial attendance and publishers/baptisms are mostly uncorrelated, at least in Europe in the last 10-15 years. Memorial attendance went down a little and up a little, while publishers and baptims decreased steadily at the same time.
Some people have suggested that memorial attendance is defined as "the number of primates, dogs and larger cats within a radius of 100 meters around the KH that might possibly attend the memorial". If the KH is next to a graveyard, skeletons are counted, too. If it's adjacent to the shopping mall's parking lot, each car is counted as five persons.
f.
edited for grammar
Hi Gsark,
If your 2001 attendance figure is correct, there sure isn't much growth happening, eh?
Usually the increase in Memorial attendance would be more tied to the growth in the number of Bible Studies (than to the growth in publishers). But taking your figures as they are, there was an increase of about 10,000 in Memorial attendance in the year 2001.
Now out of the 2.15 million attenders in 2000, we can assume that at least 1% died in the past year, so subtract 21,500 from 2.15 million and you'd get 2,128,500 who attended the Memorial in 2000 who would still be alive in 2001 and have a chance to attend. Then add to that 2,128,500 the 30,000 newly baptized, and you reach 2,158,800, which is within about 5,000 of the 2001 Memorial attendance figure.
So they must be having trouble starting new Bible studies to generate any increase in Memorial attendance.
GopherEven if you're on the right track, you'll get run over if you just sit there.
Will Rogers (1879-1935)
Is 21,500 'publishers' the same as 21,500 memorial attenders? I guess we'll never know. Too bad. I only just realized that these figures aren't available on the WT CD-ROM. It says 'see publication'.
And I sincerely doubt that the Witnesses have anything near a loss rate of 1% of publishers in death. There aren't any wars, famine etc. inside the WT (whatever other faults I may find with them)and if the District Convention I just attended is any indicator, the average age of publishers is much younger than the norm . Congregations I have known of don't lose a Witness once in several years, and I'll betcha many of the ones they do lose are not active publishers possibly because of long illnesses. I think 1% is being overgenerous (is that the right word, LOL). Again, we'll never know.
And in addition to that, the number of baptized publishers total is taken at the end of the year, and the Memorial attendance figures are for one night only a few months later.
You brought up a good point, I think . At Memorial attendance, everybody and the kitchen sink is counted. Whereas a 'publisher' is a 'publisher'. In that case, I think the loss of active publishers may be quite higher than even those numbers take account of. On the other hand, those numbers could refer to the increase of smaller sized families. People are having fewer children, Winesses are having fewer children, and so are their children, and so are their converts, and so on and so on. (this could affect the ultimate numbers of both publishers and memorial attendees) On the other hand (tired hands!) I understand that now a 'publisher' is not just a baptized person, but an approved associate going out in field service. In other words maybe there were only 30,00 newly baptized ones, but there may have been say, 40,00 new publishers total. That should have been reflected in Memorial attendance figures.
Or maybe the annual observance of the Lord's Evening Meal just isn't the family event that it used to be. (I want my MTV...)
the constant DF'ing and DA'ing must take their toll on their numbers as well, I"m saddened to think.
Life is a roller coaster. Get in, sit down, shut up and hang on!
Yes, I too have noticed that baptisms (at least in the U.S.) have been down significantly in recent years. The 2000 figure of 30,290 baptisms is the lowest number in many, many years. I have the yearbooks going only as far back as 1985. In that year, there were 34,348 baptisms. Other years, such as 1990, showed over 47,000 baptisms.
In fact, to make a long story short, baptisms in the U.S. have dropped significantly for each of the last three years, from 45 thousand in 1997 down to the current figure.
Reasons? I don't want to rehash the fine possible explanations already given. Who knows?
all this talk of not admitting a slowdown in growth...........this is all we here at meetings and especially when the c.o. comes around..so is there no growth.yes.and the society is more than willing to admit it...........ooops.......did i say society
all this talk of not admitting a slowdown in growth is important becasuse for years the Borg have pointed to their increases as evidence of Divine blessing.
Figure it out.
Cheers,
Ozzie
"You can know the law by heart, without knowing the heart of it"
Philip Yancey, What's So Amazing About Grace?
theres no point trying to get much out of memorial attendance figures for 2 consecutive years. those figures fluctuate wildly from year to year, i would guess due to which day of the week it lands on, how convenient it is for visitors to drop by.
mox
