2004 Service Report - Analysis and trends for 2005

by truthseeker 30 Replies latest jw friends

  • steve2
    steve2

    Looking back, there is a creatively "lighter" side to the time keeping that helps keep those end-of-year figures "inflated":

    Back in the late 1970s in my old congregation, one of the long-time pioneers was known to spend her time in cafes drinking coffee for hours on end. Alone. She was also a full-time wife and mother. Where did she find the time to do it all, we wondered. Yet, she always managed to get her hours in by month's end. The JW congregation gossip mill was rife with speculation about how she managed to do this. No one ever quite came out and directly said she was probably faking the time spent in the field. Heaven forbid that the most obvious conclusion be put into words. This woman was a pioneer - a fine example, brothers!

    I also knew of an elderly brother who routinely ordered a roll of about 50 Awakes every issue, yet seldom door-knocked. A sister who knew him, told me (before I was disfellowshipped, of course!) that when he moved house several years later, a couple of the brothers helping him move found scores of unopened rolls of mint copy Awakes stacked away against the back wall of his garage.

    I never did ask whether the poor old guy was reproved, confronted with the weighty evidence or commended for supporting the huge worldwide printing empire!

    Perhaps his sneakiness even inspired others to follow suit: It's much less arduous buying as many magazines as you can and promptly stacking them away out of sight than buying just a few and spending hours vainly trying to get rid of them door-to-door. And as for spending time in a cafe versus witnessing door-to-door: I think that pioneer sister was way ahead of her time and should have been commended: She was taking care of herself...although I did worry about all that caffeine consumption! Sometimes, you just have to take creative risks when you're trying to survive within the confines of a repressive organisation.

    steve2

  • Realist
    Realist

    the number of idiots on this planet is certainly not decreasing and thus the number of witnesses is increasing or at least beeing constant. how this is good news i don't know.

  • truthseeker
    truthseeker

    Steve2, glad to be of help! :)

    Seattleniceguy

    However, when I look at the chart, it appears that the 2003/2004 averages for Japan are, respectively, 217,020 and 217,097. That looks like a gain of 77. Meager, yes. But what was your -6000 figure based on?

    This was because Japan baptized slightly in excess of 6,000 publishers this year, so the 77 increase in pubs came at the expense of just under 6000 publishers.

    By the way, the whole world wide report for the number of hours is fake!

    I inflated all my service reports for the entire year!

  • steve2
    steve2

    Hey Battman Post 314:

    I appreciate your comments. I agree with you about the negative effect on the organisation of the growing pool of non-door-knocking "hangers-on".

    IMO the biggest threat the Watchtower faces is not apostasy but apathy. Even my poor old grandfather - a convert in the 1930s - became disillusioned with the organisation in the late 1960s when the Watchtower magazine intoned about 'those who have slowed down'. He never left the organisation or said a bad word about it, but he "left" the door-knocking years before he died.

    steve2

  • Mary
    Mary

    Mary's figures about 1 million leaving since 1997 is wrong...a 1% death rate for all the seven year since 1997 combined is far too small. It should be more like 1% per year, possibly higher.
    OK, if you do 1% per year, it still indicates that about 3/4 of a million people have left the Organization in the last 7 years.

    I would be surprised if even half a million have left since 1997. Of those some were disfellowshipped, others became inactive for various reasons and a few have disassociated.
    Uh, ya, exactly.........people are leaving on their own, they're getting disfellowshipped for not believing the insane doctrines, they're not going out in service anymore because they realize it's an exercise in futility...........

    So the number who made a pricipled stand to leave will be even fewer still. I can't imagine more than a few thousand since 1997.
    Bullshit........look at the FIGURES......if there were only "a few thousand" who've left in the last 7 years, they'd hardly be having every frigging WT study and assembly on "apostates". People are leaving by the droves............4 years ago, we had over 110 at the Sunday meetings on average; today, they're lucky if they can fill the Hall with 50 or 60 people.

  • JustTickledPink
    JustTickledPink

    You notice too that it's the same people who are pioneering, it's still the older "faithful" sisters or people who are out there. It's not a mass entrance of young people who are signing up. At least that is what I remembered. A lot of younger kids were encouraged during the summer to aux pioneer, but they did it as a joke, mostly coffee breaks in between a few "house calls" and such.

    There is also the fact that 6 people will ride in a van and all count their time... and they might only get to a few "house calls" but say in 4 hours they have accumulated 24 HOURS of TIME!!! It was so unproductive.

  • Preston
    Preston

    If these trends continue.............

    alt

    Heyyy!

    (Obscure Simpsons Humor reference)

  • ozziepost
    ozziepost
    So the number who made a pricipled stand to leave will be even fewer still. I can't imagine more than a few thousand since 1997.

    Like Mary, I must disagree with this.

    I think you are right to caution against over-emphasising or running away with the figures but the conclusion you make is just as broad as the one you refute i.e. you can't imagiine more than a few thousand leaving for doctrinal reasons since 1997.

    My own anecdotal evidence tells me that isn't true. For example, the fallout in dubs departing just from the "Sunday" program we know, because we've been in contact, has been substantial downunder. Australia shows a nil growth and has been flat these past few years. If the people didn't run with their feet, so to speak, what happened to them? Each year thousands are baptised, so where did the others go? Surely they're not all dying or being DF?

  • justhuman
    justhuman

    wait another 10 years and see what report they will have

  • jgnat
    jgnat

    This is the weekend that Witnesses comment on the annual report. I did a bit of analysis of my own. I added information on population increase by country (CIA World Factbook), and the United Nations Human Development reports. The Human Development Index (HDI) rankings give a balanced view of the relative contentment of people around the world. The following table (I hope it comes out OK) is ordered by HDI rank.

    Not surprising, the Jehovah's Witnesses is the religion for the unhappy. Unfortunately for the Watchtower society, unhappy people are also poor. In the top ten HDI countries, all but one country are experiencing decline when adjusted for population increase. That means less income for the society, even when it experiences mild growth in the third world.

    Countries with a population over 30 million who also experienced higher than 2% growth rate in average publishers in 2004. (World average population growth rate is 1.14%)

    Country HDI Rank Population Av Pub % Incr Pop.Growth AdjustIncr. GDP per cap
    Mexico 53 105,441,657 581,651 5% 1.18% 3.8% 8,970
    Russia 57 143,782,338 132,978 5% -0.45% 5.5% 8,230
    Ukraine 70 47,441,000 127,761 3% -0.66% 3.7% 4,870
    Brazil 72 181,586,030 596,355 4% 1.11% 2.9% 7,770
    Thailand 76 64,870,000 2,122 3% 0.91% 2.1% 7,010
    Turkey 88 67,804 1,697 3% 1.13% 1.9% 6,390
    Indonesia 111 215,768,324 17,564 5% 1.49% 3.5% 3,230
    India 127 1,070,471,400 23,583 3% 1.44% 1.6% 2,670
    Bangladesh 138 141,340,476 99 4% 2.08% 1.9% 1,700
    Pakistan 142 159,196,336 692 6% 1.98% 4.0% 1,940
    Kenya 148 32,000,000 18,044 5% 1.14% 3.9% 1,020
    Tanzania 162 36,510,219 12,049 7% 1.95% 5.1% 580
    Congo, Dem. 168 53,400,000 122,976 5% 2.99% 2.0% 650
    Ethiopia 170 70,000,000 7,191 5% 1.89% 3.1% 780
    TOTAL 1,644,762

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