2004 Service Report - Analysis and trends for 2005

truthseeker

By now, most of you will have seen the scanned images of the Watchtower's service report for 2004. I do not have the Feb 1st magazines, so I cannot speculate further on the reason for not issuing the report in the January 1st 2005 WT.

Looking at the figures, there are some trends that should be considered very disturbing to the WT leadership.

Although baptisms increased marginally by 3,571, the difference between the average number of publishers and the number of baptisms is eye-popping indeed.

Year Avg pubs Avg.pubs prev.year Baptisms % Inc Inc of pubs Deficit

2004 6,308,341 6,184,046 262,416 2.0 124,295 138,121

2003 6,184,046 6,048,600 258,845 2.2 135,446 123,399

2002 6,048,600 5,881,776 265,469 2.8 166,824 98,645

2001 5,881,776 5,783,003 263,341 1.7 98,773 164,568

2000 5,783,003 5,653,987 288,907 2.3 129,016 159,891

1999 5,653,987 5,544,059 323,439 2.0 109,929 213,510

1998 5,544,059 5,353,078 316,092 3.6 190,981 125,111

1997 5,353,078 5,167,258 375,293 3.6 185,820 189,473

From these figures, it can be seen, that the deficit of witnesses is increasing once again. The deficit increased markedly from 1997 onwards; most likely due to the change in the Generation Doctrine.

Growth is down 0.2% from the previous year, which was 2.2%. The days of the Society achieving an annual growth rate of 3,4,5 of even 6% are long gone.

The Society is haemorraging brothers. No doubt, disappointment that Armaggedon still has not come and the fact that there is renewed interest in religion is dampening their zeal.

An interesting indicator of a country's spiritual prosperity is in the number of congregations they have. Usually, growth means more congregations, consolidation means members are leaving.

Country Year Congregations Gain/Loss Prev. Yr. Cum. Total

Canada 2004 1,325 -7 -57

2003 1,332 -8 -52

2002 1,340 -3 -44

2001 1,343 -19 -41

2000 1,362 -18 -22

1999 1,384 +1 -4

1998 1,383 -5 -5

1997 1,388 0 0

Japan 2004 3,163 0 -608

2003 3,163 -50 -608

2002 3,213 -92 -558

2001 3,305 -233 -466

2000 3,538 -194 -233

1999 3,732 -70 -39

1998 3,802 +31 +31

1997 3,771 0 0

The number of congregations in Canada and Japan have decreased markedly, although Japan held its own this year. But over the last several years, Japan has lost more than 608 congregations, and Canada has lost 57 congregations.

Japan this year lost close to 6,000 publishers, even after baptisms were taken into account.

Could it be, that these publishers are finding things published by the "faithful and discreet slave" hard to grasp?

slimboyfat

Very interesting compilation Truthseeker.

In the countries you mention the decline in publishers coincides with a smaller decline in congregations.

But take a look at Mexico over the past few years and compare the trend in publishers and the trend in congregations - very strange indeed!

Do the same with the Congo - same pattern!

Something weird is going on.

Perry

What were the figures for the USA?

Mary

OK, here's another way of looking at it. If you take the average number of publishers in 1997, which was 5,167,258 and you add all the baptism numbers from 1997 to 2004, it shows there should be a total of 7,521,060 publishers as of the end of 2004. Let's deduct the 1% for those that have passed on, you're still left with a total of 7,445,849. That's approximately how many publishers there should be.

If you take away the actual number of publishers 6,308,341 that there were in 2004 from how many there SHOULD be, and it indicates that approximately 1,137,508 people have left the Organization since 1997!!

This is quite shocking when you think about it and it spells potential disaster if they keep on this trend. Perhaps the WTB&TS should seriously consider renaming the Organization: Truth or Consequences.

lv4fer

I think they will stop printing this number crap soon. It makes them look bad. It was fine when they were prospering, but anyone with half a brain can do the math. Unfortunately those who are in will read whatever they say and will not do the math themselves. They will tell them the reason for the lack of growth is because the end is so near and Jehovah is allowing enough time for the last few to trickle in. Which is why we must preach ever harder so the end can come!!!!

blondie

Back in the olden days, there used to be a chart with the congregation's monthly totals and averages posted in a easily seen spot in the KH:

Publishers

Pioneers

Hours

Magazines

Return Visits (Back Calls back then)

Booklets

Books

Some were large 4 x 6 feet and stacked on an easel at the front of the KH.

Congregations started getting too competitve and finally in the 70's the monthly quota of 10 hours monthly per publisher was dropped officially and the charts disappeared. I found an old one stored away in a closet in one KH when I was doing spring cleaning.

Maybe this will go the same way.

I also remember that in one congregation the list on the information board with the meeting attendance disappeared...out of 95 publishers only 50 were attending on a regular basis.

Blondie

steve2

Many thanks for the trends analysis Truthseeker.

I've noticed that some people have concluded that because numbers of active witnesses are decreasing that the now inactive ones have "left" the organisation. I guess that could be true in some cases. But I think it is equally plausible that growing numbers of inactive witnesses simply "hang around" the organisation in one form or another, unable to leave it, but also unable to re-commit to the door-knocking activity.

In that regard, the Witnesses may be experiencing a phenomenon commonly seen in older end-of-the-world sects and religions: Once the zeal dies down, you're left with a growing number of nominal members, rather than an actual clearcut exodus.

The memorial figures may be a better indication of the numbers who are in some way still affiliated with the Watchtower Society.

Whatever the case, I appreciate your work Truthseeker.

steve

JustTickledPink

and thinking of the congregations that are still there, many of them share a KH. I remember our hall had 3 congregations sharing the hall, 1 south, 1 north, and 1 spanish speaking. So actual building are fewer that that number.

When I think of the mortgage that each hall carries it takes some really dedicated people to keep paying the bills. I know a time when my mom and I lived in a 5 thousand dollar trailer and the KH at the time was something like a 200k hall. Where we didn't have A/C at home, my mom continued to contribute towards the power bill and such.

As people leave, so does their money. Money losses mean that fewer buildings will be around. The Society never pays the local KH's mortgage or power, water, phone bills.

minimus

How many JWs exist today??? How many are DFd??? Howmany are inactive JWS???

NewYork44M

If you take away the actual number of publishers 6,308,341 that there were in 2004 from how many there SHOULD be, and it indicates that approximately 1,137,508 people have left the Organization since 1997!!

Great observation. So, well over 1M people have left the organization. As we are aware you also need to keep in mind that most of the baptisms are coming from children of witnesses and most of these eventually fade away. In addition, there are significant numbers who hang around only because of family or emotional ties. If I was on the inside I would be scared "sh*tless." These are terrible numbers. And for an organiztion that lives for numbers it has to hurt.
I remember when I was a true believer I did similar statistics for the period around 1975 and was astounded at the high number of witness vanishings. However, after about 1979-1981 the vanishings decreased substantially. A person could justify staying around because we still had the "generation" to hang our hat on.
What is the case now. The "generation" crap no longer exists and the lawyers who run the organization won't allow another 1975 situation, thus no more date setting. So the R&F have nothing. Those that have any independent thinking have left and the remaining are only a "shell" of what was in the organization in years-gone-by.
But that is only my opinion. Thanks fo listening.

2004 Service Report - Analysis and trends for 2005

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