I don't think anyone else has raised this point. Below I set out the case that the JW demographic in USA has a steadily decreasing combined income, and as a consequence, has less money to donate. Not only is the flock not growing, the flock is producing less wool for the Borg to fleece. Further, the decrease is significant, and likely to continue.
I am concentrating on USA, because what happens in the USA is far more important to the global health of the Borg, than in any other country. The same argument probably applies to a number of countries. I am cross-referencing to data I previously extracted from the Australian 2016 census, because:
(a) the similarity in that data leads me to conclude very similar things are happening in USA; and
(b) there is much more data available from the Aust census.
Key Pew Findings:
The complete Pew Report in pdf is here:
Page 50 of the Pew Report shows that in USA from 2007 to 2014, the median age (of adults) went from 45 to 50. None of the other religions listed on that page show such an increase.
Page 58 of the report shows that in 2007 JWs have lower incomes than most other religions, and that their incomes further deteriorated in 2014.
Page 60 of the report shows that the demographics of the religion is becoming more feminine. In 2007, the ratio of men to women was 40:60. In 2014, the ratio was 35:65. JWism is easily the most imbalanced religion listed.
Weaknesses in the Pew Report are that, as a survey:
- Only 245 JWs completed the survey (see Appendix A page 89); and
- Only those 18 or older were allowed to complete the survey.
The Aust censuses of 2006, 2011 and 2016 were effectively surveys of 80,000 JWs. On the following thread, I showed that the Aust JW median age was also going through a substantial increase in median age.
The increase in median age was not quite as dramatic (5 year increase over a 10 year period in Aust, with the same increase in USA occuring in just 7 years) but it shows a pattern. Actually, because the Aust data includes minors, the 43.9 median age in 2016 in Australia would be equivalent to 43.9 + 9 = 53.9, so actually the Aust JWs are typically 4 years older than their US "brothers and sisters". If you look closely at the numbers, you can see that further increase is inevitable.
On the following thread, I showed that Aust JWs were also earning less, compared to the overall population, and from 2011 to 2016, they appeared to be falling further behind:
However, if you read the detail of the thread, you will see that the reason they appear to be falling further behind is that they are becoming older and past their prime income earning age. It is a by-product of the increase in median age.
Less money for the Borg in Aust:
What I didn't spell out in my second thread above, is that, in effect the total JW community in Aust in:
- 2011 had a combined weekly income of $411 x 85,498 = $35,139,678 ; and
- 2016 had a combined weekly income of $420 x 82,512 = $34,655,040
In other words, if every JW in Aust was donating one week's pay per year to the Borg, the Borg would be getting 1.5% less income in 2016 than it did in 2011. But this is a period where statistically incomes increased over 14%. So the Borg is actually 15% worse off. One could characterize it as a 3% drop per annum, in real terms.
Of course, one may argue that older people have less expenses etc (although I am not sure that that is true), but it is clear that there is less wool to fleece from the flock.
Relating back to USA:
If you have read this far, you will notice the similar increase in median age and the similar decrease in incomes in Aust and USA. I won't go into detail, but the gender gap is similar as well.
Detailed statistics would be needed to prove the point conclusively, but from the above, it is reasonable to conclude that JWs in USA as a demographic, have less money to donate than they used to, and will have even less money to donate in the future. Further, there is likely that this rate of decrease is of the order of 3% decrease per annum, in real terms. That has to be painful for the Borg.
As I said, not only is the flock not growing, the flock is producing less wool for the Borg to fleece.