Predictions for the next decade?

by jehovaxx 42 Replies latest watchtower beliefs

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  ScenicViewer

  Slimboyfat said,

  "Number of JWs 25 years ago - 6 million

  Number of JWs now - 9 million"

  And where do you get those numbers? From Watchtower, right?

  The Organization has lied again and again, and again, especially about the last days and when they will end ... 1914, 1925, 1941, 1975, by the end of the 20th Century ... and more.

  Why in the world would you believe their numbers regarding growth? They manipulate everything they can to make their religion look great.

  The congregation that I attended for over 30 years is gone now, dissolved, and no, a new congregation was not started as some Witnesses would have you believe. Attendance got so low at that congregation, and at a second English congregation using the same hall, that they had to be combined. This is happening all over the world.

  I see pictures and videos of something at a meeting and I am constantly amazed that there might be 30 people in attendance, if that, in a Kingdom Hall that was made for 100 to 120 people. That certainly does not indicate growth!

  When I was in you had to report at least 1 hour per month to be considered a "publisher." If you put in 1/2 hour in field service you couldn't report it, rather you had to save that time an turn it in later when you had at lease 1 hour.

  Now there is no minimum at all, you simply check a box that indicates you said something to someone and you are counted.

  And consider how easy it is to check a box, even if you didn't say a word to someone about the JW religion. I believe there are many Witnesses who would do that. Yes, that would be lying, but there are many Witness who would not hesitate to lie on a monthly report. This happened in the old days when 1 hour per month was required to be a publisher. Personal experience below.

  The first time that I did not report time, after more than 20 years of doing so regularly, an elder came to me and said "I see you forgot to report your time last month. The Circuit Overseer is coming and we need to get everything caught up."

  I said, "No, I didn't have time to report." He insisted that I must have had time and that I just forgot it. We went back and forth for a few minutes, then finally he made a mark on my time slip, a 1. He gave me an hour that I didn't have. If a respected elder will lie for a publisher, how many others will also lie?

  And this opened my eyes as to how much influence a C.O. has on elders. Apparently the congregation was in decline even in those days, and another regular publisher who was now irregular would look very bad to the C.O.

  Now there is no minimum number of hours required, you simply check a box and you are a publisher. I have not seen one of these new time slips yet, but that is what I get from reading this and other sites.

  Slimboyfat, do you honestly believe there are actually 9 million Jehovah's Witnesses in the world? I would be surprised if there were half that many real JWs.
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  slimboyfat

  9 million is a very conservative estimate of the number of JWs because most other methods of counting find far higher numbers of JWs. For example Watchtower claims only 1.2 million JW publishers in the United States whereas the US religion census cited above found 3 million JW adherents in the United States. The same pattern holds in other countries where censuses regularly produce far higher numbers of JWs than the official publisher count.

  The congregation that I attended for over 30 years is gone now, dissolved, and no, a new congregation was not started as some Witnesses would have you believe. Attendance got so low at that congregation, and at a second English congregation using the same hall, that they had to be combined. This is happening all over the world.

  The number of congregations has also increased significantly since 25 years ago. There were 90,000 congregations in 2000 and 118,000 in 2024. So while some congregations may not have increased and multiplied this is the overall trend worldwide.
• 

  ScenicViewer

  "The number of congregations has also increased significantly since 25 years ago. So while some congregations may not have increased and multiplied this is the overall trend worldwide"

  25 years ago is a very long time. How about 10 years ago or so. How about since the Organization changed the "generation" of Matthew 24 from an actual generation to "2 groups of people whose lives overlap," which is a ridiculous definition? I can't remember what year that was but I think it was in the 10+ year range, give or take. That opened the eyes of lots of sincere JWs. I myself was already out by then, but if I had been in it would have been a real eye opener for me too. Even now I am stunned that they would say such a silly thing.

  Slimboyfat, do you believe that is the meaning of the "generation" of Matthew 24?

  And no, there is nothing reliable about Watchtower. I think the 9 million number is extremely high, even if you think it is reliable. Watchtower has lied WAY too much over the years to be believed. That number is simply another sales pitch that says if effect 'oh look at us, aren't we Gods people, and don't we have the Truth. Jehovah is making us grow.'

  "The number of congregations has also increased significantly since 25 years ago."

  Again you are comparing to 25 years ago, which is a very long time, and you are still using Watchtower's numbers, which are definitely unreliable.
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  slimboyfat

  Do you think the religion census is also lying when it reports finding 3 million JWs in the United States? And the censuses in Brazil, Mexico, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and elsewhere that find far higher numbers of JWs than the official Watchtower count?

  25 years is the time comparison you chose on the previous page when claiming JWs are losing badly

  There are 700 more congregations worldwide compared with 10 years ago, that’s not much growth but it is growth
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  ScenicViewer

  You failed to answer the question ...

  Slimboyfat, do you believe that is the meaning of the "generation" of Matthew 24? (referring to 2 groups of people whose lives overlap making up one generation.)

  I'd like to know if you believe that.

  As to findings of the Religious Census, where do they get their numbers? Do they ask people directly what their religion is? If so, many people who are actually ex-JWs would say they are JWs, even if they are totally inactive, because that was the last religion they were associated with. I highly doubt their numbers (Religious Census) are accurate, although they are not intentionally lying about it. Watchtower is intentionally misleading even if it is using a new way of counting that doesn't mean anything, like simply checking a box that is meaningless. And don't forget that Witnesses themselvse will lie, including the elder that I mentioned in my personal experience.

  "There are 700 more congregations worldwide compared with 10 years ago, that’s not much growth but it is growth"

  Again you are relying on Watchtower numbers. How do they define what a congregation is these days. Someone reported on this site some time ago that small groups that were NOT counted as congregations years ago, are now. This doesn't surprise me. Watchtower will use every trick in the book to appear as though it is growing.

  Did you see my remark about videos of meetings that show a very low attendance? Kingdom Halls use to be full or nearly full. There don't seem to be many like that left. I am not aware of 1, although there must be a few somewhere. Most of what I see has embarrassingly low attendance.

  "25 years is the time comparison you chose on the previous page when claiming JWs are losing badly"

  The 25 year reference was to how long, approximately, the internet has been in use. Naturally the Jehovah's Witness fade would not have started at that exact moment, but over time it would start, then increase as time went on, especially when the end of this world failed to come, and Watchtower needed to explain that away. In those days (25 years ago) Watchtower was downplaying the internet, as if it was run by Satan and couldn't be believed. When I learned that Watchtower had it's own website I was literally shocked, in fact I didn't believe it until I saw it for myself. That was an eyeopener for me. Yes 25 years ago is when I was starting to leave.
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  ScenicViewer

  FYI, I am at the library using their internet service. I am about to leave and it may be a few days until I get back here, possibly next Tuesday. If I don't reply soon, that's the reason.
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  SydBarrett

  Back in the late 90's when internet discussion forums started getting popular and even through the heyday of this forum in the early 2000's, I think many people felt there was gonna be some big moment when it was all exposed and people en masse would see it for what it was and we'd hug and make up with our jerk relatives and they'd say "i'm sorry, i was wrong".
  
  Not gonna happen.
  
  It's gonna be a slow fade into an internet version of TBN. (for non americans, that was a corny religious variety show that may or may not still be on).
  
  Eventually a century from now, they won't even be growing from reproducing, but someone or some group will own the buildings. Some now unborn group of people will close the doors the last time, sell the assets, make a little windfall, and the WT will pass into history. Maybe remembered by future religious studies Phd candidates writing a thesis on obscure american religion in the 19th century.
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  jehovaxx

  slimboyfat5 hours ago

  9 million is a very conservative estimate of the number of JWs because most other methods of counting find far higher numbers of JWs. For example Watchtower claims only 1.2 million JW publishers in the United States whereas the US religion census cited above found 3 million JW adherents in the United States. The same pattern holds in other countries where censuses regularly produce far higher numbers of JWs than the official publisher count.

  They count only active publishers
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  Anony Mous

  @jehovaxx: they used to, but nowadays they count any warm body.

  I remember back in the day when it was only baptized members with at least 8-10 hours of service for 3 consecutive months.

  Then it was all baptized members that were active (10h) in service at least that month.

  Then they included active children of baptized members (and we were so excited to turn in our own hour counting form, at least until we became older teenagers)

  Then unbaptized publishers got their reports included.

  Eventually the service hours got dropped to 2

  Then you just had to come to the meetings regularly

  Then the service hours dropped completely.

  Now I guess they count anyone that ever shows up.

  Back in the day surveys showed 2x number of people that reported being a JW vs what the WTBTS reported number of JW to be. Today it’s much closer.

  So it depends on what your definition of “growth” is. Same number of bodies, counted differently. In 1995 there was 1 Jehovah's Witness for every 294 people, but by 2023 it had fallen to 1 in 379.
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  Earnest

  Anony Mous : In 1995 there was 1 Jehovah's Witness for every 294 people, but by 2023 it had fallen to 1 in 379.

  I don't know where you get your figures from. The figures from the Yearbook/Service Year Report are :

  1995 : 1 in 274 (1996 Yearbook)

  2023 : 1 in 276 (2023 Service Year Report)

  2024 : 1 in 272 (2024 Service Year Report)

  Considering that the US population had grown by more than 75 million between 1995 and 2023, these ratios show that the growth amongst Jehovah's Witnesses in this period reflected the growth in population.

  The fact that the number of congregations grew by more than 1,500 (between 1995 and 2023) indicates this growth reflected bums on seats and not just turning up for the Memorial.