It's become clear that very few from outside the religion are joining anymore. If only the kids of the people that are already in are the one replacing the members as they die off and 50% let's say of the kids leave then how long can they realistically last before the downturn becomes obvious?
How long can this cult remain with only kids becoming members?
I think the down turn is already obvious, to outsiders.
Attendance, baptisms donations and overall growth is down.
When/if they admit this, is another story altogether.
When the bottom falls out, be ready to support the discarded.
Attrition is a steady, gradual process. In some places it happens so slowly, active ones barely notice it. Where it becomes more visible is at conventions where attendances and baptisms are down compared to earlier years.
How long did the religion remain after the Rutherfordian purges of a hundred years ago? Estimates are that they lost 75% of their membership in a couple of decades. They can survive anything except, perhaps, a leadership that runs off with the money to the Cayman islands.
It is slowly dwindling.
Unless assets are seized they can live off their property for the rest of our lives.
Last report was 85,000 properties worldwide. That's billions in assets.
It won't be obvious until they report reduced numbers and that won't even sink in immediately. Jws are so used to avoiding reality. Maybe thats when they change their message to judgement as a distraction.
@ Crazy guy,It is premature to declare that all is lost for the JW org but indeed it looks like the publisher increase is now done through breeding new JWs and not from field service.
Calling from door to door is now so unpopular that even the men at the top must be acknowledging it. Carts are not what they were hyped to be and the art of avoiding calling on people has developed in such a way that it's still possible to do next to nothing and technically call it reporting time. Of course there are those who are awake who in good conscience count time they didn't do.
The whole ritual of being a JW is becoming a hollow show of outward conformity but inner resistance...may it increase enormously!
My big hope is that the GB will realise that the Watchtower has had its day and that the internet and free information has won.
I hope that this will translate into acceptance that it is over and that the Watchtower will morph into a social club with the bar for joining lowered. Those with a flicker of intelligence will flee from its mindless paranoia.
Good post half banana.
The "pressure on numbers" has started and will build. The wackier and harsher they get, more and more will wake up.
More will leave, more will fly under the radar and seeing it for the crock of crap it all is will not shun their family like they are expected to. Imagine you are a parent with young teenage kids seeing the "don't pick up the phone/scowl at your kid when she is being disfellowshipped" video. The deluded diehards will continue but they will increasingly be the mentally and emotionally defective. More will delay their kids getting baptised.
Others will become more apathetic and depressed. The congregations - especially in the western world - will hollow out and contract from the inside. I just hope the slow drip drip will become a steady stream.
I don't see a sudden destructive force but I do see JW-ism stagnating/withering and those wanting to escape will have an increasingly good support structure to help them.
I think you're right wrt developed countries where prospective members have access to the internet. But in developing countries I think the growth rate is quite high.
Unfortunately for the WTS, those new converts in developing countries don't have the resources to keep the contribution boxes topped up.
I have a hunch that at some point they may actually try to thin the herd.
Their business consultants may point to a lowered membership as equaling a lowered overhead. Less printing,more opportunity for congregation consolidation and property selling etc etc.
They can spin it as a "cleansing" of Jehovah's house. Lol