How far will they go?
JWs have become increasingly lax in how they count publishers, counting 15 minutes, and elders filling reports on behalf of publishers. In one case the WT even admitted that a branch exaggerated the number of publishers to impress HQ!
The only extensive independent data we have on JWs comes from national censuses. For example in Canada there were 155,000 JWs in 2001 compared with 138,000 in 2011. Is that growth or decline? In Australia the census showed 83,400 JWs in 1996 compared with 82,500 in 2016. Is that growth or decline Morph?
In fact are there any census results, or other independent surveys that show JWs increasing? I would be interested to know.
Congregation numbers are an excellent way to measure the vitality of any religious community for the many reasons I have given before. That is why the decline in JW congregations is so significant.
Morpheus, KH's are being sold off everywhere in the western world especially in the UK and in most/all of Europe, they are not being replaced, new congs are not forming, there is zero growth in the UK, they do not call D2D in this neighbourhood anymore,I simply do not see it, they have a token presence a few days a week with their silly cart in my town centre that no body cares about nor is interested in, and I'm a very good judge to monitor this, so it just goes to show that their worldwide publisher figures should just be taken as like everything they boast about as pure fantasy, we all did it as publishers padding out our FS reports, branch facilities sold, KH's sold , CA halls slowly being sold,all printing downsized,Gilead almost nonexistent, DO's finished, vast CA/DC's nonexistent,everything they boasted of in the 1960's to the end of the 1990's has declined, only a fool would deny that.
I and others here have wondered at times if there is another power behind the wt.
If so and they are faced with loosing their easy come millions then anything is possible. But then I am a born again cynic.
I wouldn't put it past them to kill for the ORGANIZATION.
It really could happen. They are paranoid mofos.
I am just glad I am out, and I have truly found my freedom!
I thought I would check in, given I get a mention above.
I have done a few threads on the Aust census statistics. The following is the last one I did. (Look at the graphs on page 2, as some of those in the opening post contain an error.)
Essentially, decline in Australia is "locked-in" and inevitable, now. Because their median age has risen over the last 10 years, they are entering a stage where deaths will outnumber births, particularly as the baby boomers die off. It will be a slow process, however.
Also, someone on a separate thread about 5 months ago showed that adding up all publishers across Europe, showed a small decline. I noticed that adding in the major wealthy countries (USA, Japan etc) showed a slightly greater decline.
So decline is real, at least in the West. And this decline is unrelated to whatever financial issues Watchtower is currently suffering.
Btw, I also agree that the number of congregations is a reliable measure of growth/decline, as it is a hard one to fudge.
Back to the O.P. I don't think the Borg could stoop to murder. They are quite likely to stoop to Scientology style tactics, though.
Number of congregations declined in Germany and United States last year. That is real decline.
Number of congregations, in isolation, is not an indicator of decline, given their stated "master plan" of combining congregations so as to better utilize existing Kingdom Halls.
If 4 congregations of 90 publishers become 3 congregations of 120 publishers, there is no "decline" at all.
Gordy, I don't think that there would actually be an agreement in some office between any of the higher-ups to murder anybody. But I do feel that there are those who will not face reality. If their perception is such that they believe that any one person could jeopardize Jehovah's earthly Organization, some individual wack job might take things into his own hands.
You can see even on this thread, on an apostate website (!) that some will not even contemplate the demise of the WTS.
Sir82, why should individual publishers be the unit that defines growth or decline? I know this is an extremely difficult concept to challenge in our individualistic society, but it is difficult to justify when you really think about it. Not all individuals are equal. If you swap 100 zealous individuals for 100 who couldn’t care less, is that really equivalent?
Consider a scenario where you have a congregation of 50 publishers who are very zealous, half of them are pioneers, fifteen elders, broad range of ages, lots of ministry, over 100% attendance at meeting, Bible studies, fantastic donations and so on.
Same congregation, thirty years later, still 50 publishers (including 15 minute reports) now mostly older publishers, only 1 pioneer, 2 elders, hardly any ministry, only 70% at meetings, donations barely cover costs.
As a resul this congregation is merged with another congregation. According to your reckoning no “decline” as such has taken place here, because the publisher number is the same. Yet I think we are missing something pretty significant if we don’t observe that the merging of congregations in a scenario like this is, at a very deep and significant level, definitely an indication of “decline”. The interesting thing is, the scenario I described above is actually not far from the reality in some congregations!
The number of congregations is a much better indication of vitality, growth or decline, precisely because it measures much more than just the number of individuals involved, which frankly can be much more easily manipulated or misrepresented. It captures something of the level of commitment and direction of travel too. If you say “won’t the programme of consolidation give a false impression of decline?” My response is: the programme of consolidation is a result of massive decline.
I woke up this morning and decided to see how far the crazy train had gotten... im pleasantly surprised that no one has claimed they know of one such assassination and cant believe anyone would doubt them!
Oh stillin.... all i see on this thread are fools so desperate to see the downfall of a minor american based religion they will grasp at any straw.
As i said, everything dies. Stars. Galaxies. The very universe itself will one day collapse in on itself. The wtb&s society is no different. It absolutely will collapse, one day. Just not soon. All of your dreams otherwise dosent change the fact that there are 8,457,107 cult members.
Slims claims about over inflated numbers are, as most of his claims are, the pipe dreams of a man who sees what he want to see. There are probably many more who believe most of the cults brand of crazy. Yes cong secretaries make up time for people. I did.... as long as someone was showing up for meetings. What nobody does is make up time for people who are never at meetings. Thats insane. You would be caught quickly at that game. If you took actual meeting attendance as the measure of membership (what most religions do) there would be more like 10-12 million witnesses. They get around 16 million to come to their reject jesus ceremony.
So far i am 100% correct and slim is dead ass wrong. Woke up, the org is still here. Im betting i will be right tomorrow as well.
Also also, i noted no one has yet accepted my challange and even theorized what piece of information could meet gorbys ridiculous standard of being able to bring the org down... for all the cock sure remarks nobody can, using their wildest apostate imaginations, dream up a piece of information capable of bring the org down.
By all means, keep the crazy train rolling. Its a source of amusement... and a little shame
Slim. I use small word, make easy.
10 cult members in 1 congregation same as 10 cult members in 10 congregations. Not different. Same.