by jw-verite 69 Replies latest watchtower beliefs
By 2025, ......the world would have 11 billion people, double its number today. Another doubling would take only a bit more than 25 years, as the faster- growing segments of the population become a larger proportion of the total. .....in 2076, the human population would have more than doubled again, passing 46 billion. By 2150 there would be 694,213,000,000 of us, a little over 125 times our present population.
http://discovermagazine.com/1992/nov/howmanypeoplecan152
Just a quick "back of the envelope" number analysis:
1,195, 081 (2015 average) - 9,844 (assumed 0.8237% mortality rate based on CDC 2014 estimates) + 28,588 (2016 baptisms) = 1,213,825 (projected 2016 average) - 1,198,026 (2016 actual average) = 15,799 (missing -- DF'd, DA, faded)
So for 2016:
So for each of the 14,000 (and change) congregations in the US - approximately 2 got dunked (both born in and not), 1 died, and 1 left.
Yes!
What is really important is the actual numbers who woke up and LEFT!
perhaps they are less picky these days? Don't mean to disparage this fellow but... this is Mickey Garcia. DJ, music producer. He tweeted yesterday how proud he was to be a baptized JW as of 171202. Same picture on his twitter profile.
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCqxn547buomkqXm8Acw-15g/featured?disable_polymer=1
"This is JW Mickey Garcia, DJ, music producer, critical thinker."
Which one of these is out of place?
How many are leaving every year these days? Are total numbers still growing?
How many are leaving every year these days?
Very difficult to know. Those calculated as leaving the JW's are not purely those who are voluntarily leaving, but also includes those who are hounded and kicked out (disfellowshipped and shunned) by JW's themselves.
Are total numbers still growing?
Total Peak numbers and Total Average numbers are increasing year on year. To show a decline, however, you need to do quite a few calculations and may be separate the african countries from the western/european countries.
I remember a couple of years ago someone ran the numbers going back several decades and listed the year over year of the ones missing in their Statistics. According to the numbers over a million people have left or died per decade in the last couple of decades . I think these numbers didn’t include those that never got baptized. It’s probably very accurate that for every person getting baptized their realistically loosing as many if not more . I think more. I think the PEW surveys are very accurate, they really are loosing close to 70% of their members and to hide this they have lied about their numbers probably since the late 1970s.
Conspiracy theories rely on untold numbers of silent confederates to hold the story together - and the one about JW statistics being fudged is no different.
To lie about the stats for specific countries would involve the cooperation of numerous high-ranking JWs. Each one of them would realize the official correct number they submitted to headquarters for their respective countries was subsequently changed for publication.
All you’d need is just one to spill the beans about the numbers being fudged - but instead, no whistleblower has emerged. Until evidence of fudging emerges, we have to conclude that JW organization may present their stats in as positive way as possible - but fudging (falsifying) does not occur.
To lie about the stats for specific countries would involve the cooperation of numerous high-ranking JWs
True. Each country compiles its numbers on Sep 28th and sends it to the HQ by Sep end for the entire service year. Locally, Three service desk secretaries compile the number which then gets reviewed by the the Desk overseer and the subsequent branch committee member who is responsible for the Service Department.
So if the number is fudged by half a million, it would take a dozen or so branches to fudge these and many individuals from one branch will know of it when the fudged numbers get published in the yearbook. This is true for the partakers too- if they are increasing, they have to report it truthfully.
