Some recent baptism figures in the UK - is there a "bounce back"?

by freddo 35 Replies latest jw friends

  • Hernandez
    Hernandez

    IMHO, a "mature" religion that is still alive doesn't plateau, especially since the "statistics" have played a significant part in the JW doctrine.

    First, consider the "mature" Roman Catholic Church. Not a favorite in the UK, and definitely not unaffected by the general turn from religion occurring across the globe, it is still growing at about the same rate as the population growth, at around 17% in the current figures. In the UK the growth is at 2% whereas a much larger surge in growth is currently occurring in Europe and also in the USA. Around 300,000 new adult Catholics enter the Catholic Church each month on average, and the numbers on growth are measured against deaths and members who leave as the Church keeps track of these things (unlike the Watchtower).

    People aren't "storming the doors" to become Catholic, but for a 2000+ year-old religion that began the 21st century by being rocked by a very public horrific child abuse scandal and currently facing an international decline and distrust in religion, it is doing quite well. That is what "maturity" looks like in a religion.

    Nobody really cares that much about the child abuse scandal in the JW religion (which is unfortunate for the victims). It is a tiny relgious movement, an annoying cult, and people in general expect cults to have sexual predators and perverse dealings (look how long the sexual abuse in Reform LDS stayed in the news and remains in people's minds now...not at all). The JWs have never been taken seriously on a world scale. Nobody considers them the seat of Christian Faith like they do Catholicism, so nobody cares what is happening to them. No one outside the JWs has really bothered to notice they are still here past their "due date," so to speak. And after the Watchtower sign comes down in Brooklyn Heights, people are going to say: "Oh yeah. Whatever happened to those weirdos?"

    So it's not the world causing them to slow down. It's not the sign of maturing and becoming a common fixture on the relgious scene. No, this is what failure looks like.

    We used to have JW assemblies in the same meeting complex at the same time the Worldwide Church of God had them. One day they stopped having their assemblies in the same place. Why? Because of what we are seeing with the JWs. This is the same thing that happened to them after Armstrong died and the world didn't end. The money, the consolidation, the lack of growth. It happened just like this. The next step is for them to do what the leadership of the WCG did, announce to their members that "yes, we have been in a cult." And boy, that ended it all for them, right quick.

    The end did not come. They won't be able to keep it going much longer no matter what, because the end didn't come and it is all based on this being the end. The JWs can't exist if this isn't the end ("true religion" will only be restored for the generation before the end of the world, according to the JW theology) and the end never came when "Jehovah told them" it would. The "growth" numbers didn't mean what "Jehovah told them" it meant. None of it came true on time, and that time was over a long time ago.

    The sad thing is denial can last a long time. When it is all finally over, the world will notice as much as they did when the WCG went belly-up, which is not at all. What a waste this will all have been. No one will even care about the years or time I wasted either, how sorry a lot is that?

  • darkspilver
    darkspilver

    Sorry, I was thinking while typing, rather then presenting an 'idea' as complete.

    Firstly I think there is always going to be a natural plateau with anything - a 'maximum reach' - religion included. What would be interesting would be when that plateau starts to fall.

    (In product marketing, with a saturdated market where you've plateaued on you maximum market reach you look to use the brand name to expand the product range, sometimes into quite seemingly unrelated areas - actually an argument could be made for JW Broadcasting being that expanision - anyway, back to the main point)

    While I thought initially that the maturity of the religion in those countries it has been active in the longest will have reached a plateau, you would still expect ongoing growth in those countries it hasn't been active in for as long.

    But as my global increase figures, that doesn't really seem to be the case.

    Excluding the anomalies of very low publisher numbers and high ratio countries... It seems interesting there's really only three significant countries reporting similiar increases to Britain back in the 1980's, namely

    Angola 1:210, 111,123 publishers, 8% increase

    Philippines 1:499, 199,551 publishers, 5% increase

    Russia 1:832, 172,977 publishers, 5% increase


  • Hernandez
    Hernandez

    The numbers don't really matter except for impressing members of insignificant and ignorant groups like the JWs. It makes them believe they are accomplishing things because people don't generally have an idea of what real results look like. Other cults do the same.

    For instance, all the hype among the JWs about the NWT being published, now up to 208 million copies and available in whole or in part in more than 130 languages. Sounds great for a Bible released in 1950 up to today, right?

    The United Bible Societies publishes and distributes around 400 million Bibles every year in every language you can think of. Every single year!

    The NWT was released in 1950, and they've only published 208 million by 2016? Pathetic.

    The same has been true about all the other numbers and figures the Watchtower tried to impress us with. They are part of the illusion, and now an old trick, the pieces of which are broken and worn. They didn't really mean anything in the past, and they definitely mean even less now.

  • blondie
    blondie

    darkspilver:

    Quick figures from Britain:

    Yearbook -

    Increase -

    Average Publishers -

    Baptized

    1983

    5%

    87,732

    5,154

    1984

    6%

    92,616

    5,166

    1985

    5%

    97,370

    5,280

    2016

    0%

    134,491

    2,286

    --------Now if that doesn't show how it has dropped into the toilet....and no increase of 25 or 35 counts. 1983 87,732 pubs generated 5,154 new people, why did 134,491 pubs only generate 2,286?

  • Arthur Others
    Arthur Others

    Last one day assembly I went to there were about 1000 in attendance and 10 baptized.

  • darkspilver
    darkspilver

    I didn't start this thread using single digit figures

    And I agree with regards to figures, after all there's lies, damned lies, and statistics

    BTW, if you don't all ready know about it, you might be interested in the British Religion In Numbers website from Bristol University - http://www.brin.ac.uk

    http://www.brin.ac.uk/figures/catholic-community-estimates/


  • darkspilver
    darkspilver

    Hi blondie

    Now if that doesn't show how it has dropped into the toilet....and no increase of 25 or 35 counts. 1983 87,732 pubs generated 5,154 new people, why did 134,491 pubs only generate 2,286?

    Because the WT has passed it's 'honeymoon' period, has entered it's plateau phrase and is likely to be entering it's downward phrase....

  • Finkelstein
    Finkelstein

    If you take in consideration of the long standing core doctrine of this faith particularly concerning 1914, it would be logically assuming that this religion would plateau itself in the long run.

    The WTS should have reeled that dating year in a long time ago and quit lamenting that mankind was living in the last days, Armageddon soon proclamations.

    The Watchtower Publishing house was always running and orchestrating this religion though, as well influencing its most alluring doctrines.

  • blondie
    blondie

    darkspilver, that was a rhetorical question.....the only way the WTS can get it going again is pick another date to shoot for....2034 perhaps (just kidding).

  • shepherdless
    shepherdless
    Darkspilver: Excluding the anomalies of very low publisher numbers and high ratio countries... It seems interesting there's really only three significant countries reporting similiar increases to Britain back in the 1980's, namely
    Angola 1:210, 111,123 publishers, 8% increase
    Philippines 1:499, 199,551 publishers, 5% increase
    Russia 1:832, 172,977 publishers, 5% increase

    I think the most likely reason for the supposed increase in Russia is the annexation of Crimea. If you look at the corresponding drop in Ukraine and do a back-of-envelope calc using Crimea's population, it seems to explain both the drop in Ukraine and the increase in Russia.

    Angola's numbers are strange, especially when compared to some neighboring countries (the 2 Congos, Malawi). Also note that the increase in Angola is way above the number of baptisms.

    In relation to Philippines, Watchtower seems to have more success in poorer Catholic countries, and perhaps this is an example of that. The ratio of publisher to population suggests there will be a lot more increase before there is a plateau.

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