United States baptism stats 1969-2015

by the comet 26 Replies latest watchtower beliefs

  • the comet
    the comet

    Whenever the new yearbooks come out, we all look at the figures and see the publisher increase never really matches up with the baptism figures. It never should match up as all newly baptized ones are already publishers, and may have been for many years. I, as an example, became an unbaptized publisher at age 11. I didn't get baptized until i was 17.

    What i wanted to do was add up all the baptism figures for the u.s in the last 70 years and see what that number would come out to. The first problem i ran into was, i couldn't find the baptism figures in the yearbooks pre the 1970 yearbook. So i started there. I went ahead and added Alaska and Hawaii to the u.s. figures, Alaska stopped reporting separate from the u.s. in the 2008 yearbook, and Hawaii in 2012.

    Yearboook #baptized

    1970------------29,954

    1971------------39,445

    1972------------40,814

    1973------------48,428

    1974------------56,190

    1975------------83,038

    1976------------72,607

    1977------------44,244

    1978------------28,276

    1979------------20,711

    1980------------27,187

    1981------------28,028

    1982------------28,715

    1983------------34,011

    1984------------36,630

    1985------------35,912

    1986------------34,677

    1987------------42,161

    1988------------39,519

    1989------------43,519

    1990------------48,769

    1991------------47,697

    1992------------44,984

    1993------------41,170

    1994-------------42,054

    1995------------39,502

    1996----------44,317

    1997-----------44,060

    1998----------45,607

    1999----------37,673

    2000----------32,871

    2001---------30,536

    2002---------27,973

    2003---------30,112

    2004---------30,584

    2005---------30,989

    2006---------28,628

    2007---------29,140

    2008---------37,509

    2009---------35,804

    2010---------34,842

    2011--------35,516

    2012---------32,953

    2013---------32,039

    2014---------32,118

    2015----------36,034

    2016----------28,353

    grand total-----1,794,385 (check my math, I probably made a calculation error)

    so in the 1970 yearbook the u.s. had 343,673 avg publishers, again no idea how many are unbaptized versus baptized. 2016 avg publisher count is1,195,081. Without figuring in death rates you have well over 500,000 people missing. My next project is, how many foreign language publishers and cong. are there in the u.s.

  • sir82
    sir82

    Without figuring in death rates you have well over 500,000 people missing.

    Why would you ignore that? Over a 45 year period, 10's or 100's of thousands of JWs would have died.

    Many of the "missing" simply died. Of course, a large number were also DF'ed or faded.

    I have no idea how you could get an accurate count of any of that.

  • the comet
    the comet
    Why didn't I factor in the death rate? The simple answer is, I don't really know how to. In 1975 83,000 were baptized. i would have to factor in the death rate for 40 years. But then as time went by the death rate would be higher and higher as they got older. I just don't know how to go about doing that.
  • Saintbertholdt
    Saintbertholdt
    Why didn't I factor in the death rate? The simple answer is, I don't really know how to.

    You could always use the annual average U.S. death rate per 1000 as a guide and proxy.

    http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0005131.html

    Is there a reason that you're using average publishers and not peak publishers in this particular instance?

  • the comet
    the comet
    i could use that chart, the only thing is it doesn't factor in age. i could do ballpark estimates using that chart. i used average because i think its a more accurate number as to the actual number of individual publishers versus number of reports.
  • redpilltwice
    redpilltwice

    1975------------83,038

    Stay alive 'til 75! LOL... but 1978-1982 were the years of karma...

    Thx comet.

  • steve2
    steve2
    Statisticians routinely apply annual death rates to population numbers. It is conservative and avoids the confusion of "floating" data that endlessly causes misunderstandings and misinformation.
  • the comet
    the comet
    When I have time I will apply death rates to the numbers so I can avoid endlessly causing misunderstandings and misinformation.
  • Crazyguy
    Crazyguy
    I would think the death rate would be small especially after 1975, because most from that point on are younger ones already in the Borg.
  • atomant
    atomant
    Does anyone know the statistics for disfellowships world wide going back decades.Would be a very interesting reveal.

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