The WT in 10 years time
In 10 years they will be bigger, if only merely due to reproduction and baptizing the youngsters. Also, they will continue evolving to the point that they will seem like a completely different religion.
The paperless movement will be complete and, where available, anyone not using a wireless device will be frowned upon. Already here in the USA anyone that can and does not use a tablet is somewhat ridiculed; our last CO told all elders and their wives that we must set the example in using an iPad or another wireless device during meetings and service.
who, DO they actually count as members? do they still count inactive people? DF people?,
Not far from my locality is an old Christadelphian Hall - it sports a sign that advertsies their Sunday talk - usually about some aspect of living in the end times.
I have never been inside that Hall but most Sundays, there are a number of vehicles parked on the Hall grounds suggesting a good sized attendance.
This old Millenialist group which started in the 1840s is long past its heyday. It was very active in spreading its message several decades ago and does not have a strong presence with New Zealand census records showing a decline in those identifying as being Christadelphians. Yet well over 170 years since its first inklings in the USA, it still attracts a following in far-flung countries.
There will always be suckers of one kind or another who are attracted to religious promsies of one kind or another.
We ought not conclude that religious belief is the domain that champions reason, evidence and commonsense.
To the contrary, religions meet people's needs for spiritual certainty and reassurance. As long as humans prioritize spiritual certainty over reason, evidence and commonsense, religions will attract followers, jw organization included.
Of course, that is not to say that currently well-attended groups will continue to flourish, but in one form or another, these groups will outlast the steadily increasing blasts of reason, evidence and commonsense .
A. In 2026 in what state do you think the Organization will be?
4.) Roughly half the number of members as today
which will happen because it will be
5.) Split or dissolved.
B. In 2026 do you think amount of literature printed in other languages (not English) will be:
3.) Less than today
C. In 2026 do you think the amount of literature printed in English will be:
3.) Less than today
D. In 2026 do you think the number of countries that have Bethel facilities will be:
4.) Only in one country (maybe one in each continent)
I find that difficult. A year ago I would have said bigger, around 10 to 12 million.
Now I think smaller, or possibly split or dissolved.
Either way I think printing is done. They might still print Bibles, or else pay someone else to do it.
Branches will continue to close in any scenario.
Ask the same question in a year or two, we will be in a better position to judge. The next year or two look to be crucial one way or another.
Probably all public talks and demonstrations streamlined through the internet and broadcasted at KHs. Yeah, could be only bibles printed. Those could eventually be done away with too.
All bethels likely a thing of the past. Only a single ivory tower headquarters in that of Warwick upstate NY.
Ten years from now they will be out of their minds.. Ten years from now there will be only
one GB member . In the middle eastern countries they will bring back the killing of Christians
in the arenas, only JW's this time. Better yet they will all move to upstate NY, a state of their own.
Single page tracts for printing(once they have got rid of all the old books,just this week i have disposed of 5 books from the trolleys that were printed in 2006)
very few kingdom halls
I don't think the ¨having babies¨ strategy is going to work. Less than 1/3 of JW children stick with the religion. And - in the US at least - witness couples average less than 2 children.
Or, another way of putting it, every 10 JWs results in less than 3 kids that will stick with the religion into their twenties. This is not a sustainable model.
A: 2. (Roughly the same amount of members as today)
B: 3. (Less printed literature in other languages) Reason: There is less need of printed literature generally, and more and more of the world's population that can read, read English.
C: 3 (Less printed literature in English) or possibly 4. The traditional "colportage" business model was weakened in 1990 and has since been broken by the internet. Printed literature has turned from being the primary income earner for WBT$, to just a drain on the business.
D: 3 (Less Bethel's than today)
I think the biggest threat is not membership. It is the finances. WBT$ now has to rely more on member donations and bequests than ever before. I am sure that they will survive, but they will have to make changes. I predict less emphasis on field service and more closed cult behaviour.
Witness carts may be a smart move, because their use hides less emphasis on field service. The fact that carts achieve very little is irrelevant.
If they are smart, they will water down the discouragement of higher education, and go to greater lenghts to retain members.
Looking further into the future (beyond 10 years), they will have the following problems:- the "immenent Armageddon" card will lose more credibility as time goes by;- the lucky guess of 1914 will seem less impressive as it will be just another date in history;- recruiting will become more difficult in wealther countries, as JW's only seem to be able to recruit fellow Christians, and the percentage of the population that believe in God in such countries is on a steady decline.