Taking bets on how long this cult will last and what will happen to it

by macys 47 Replies latest watchtower beliefs

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  mrmagic

  It's hard to say how long Watchtower will be around. When you're talking about an organization like the Watchtower, you're talking about a system that is comprised of many smaller systems within it.

  Additionally, you have ever changing uncertainty to deal with, as well as emergence of larger forces due to all those smaller variables.

  You also have unexpected consequences to deal with and couple that with exponentially increasing computer/technology power and you have a recipe for some interesting probabilities.
  
  Technology is the equalizer. It equalizes the power and the playing field. Now the average person can cause a ripple effect of positive change.
  
  Most people don't really understand Moore's Law of exponential returns. Computer technology does hot advance the same tomorrow as it did today. It doubles the doubling of the doubling that was doubled by the previous doubling. (Example: So what used to take 20 years of progress in technology now takes a day. Tomorrow that same 20 years of progress will only take 12 hours. The day after that 6 hours. ) (The Age of Spiritual Machines. by Ray Kurzweil)
  
  Everything has a life cycle and that includes religions/cults. One thing for sure...the organization has been forced to make change. Change is the crucial key. Although many of the changes have ranged from ridiculously lame to completely bizarre....it is still *change* that the organization has been forced to make. There is an interruption to their status quo and now it seems like they are in hot water financially.
  
  I personally don't think it will even take 5 years for them to completely die out as they are now. There may be things within the organization that none of us know yet, that if we knew would change our opinion about the time frame to Watchtower's self-Armageddon. However, this is just my guess in the dark with absolutely no concrete evidence to support my theory/opinion
  
  
  
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  RubaDub

  Their end is soon ... very soon ... just around corner.

  Rub a Dub
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  poopsiecakes

  In my opinion (which isn't worth much hahaha) once someone in a position of power - like a President or Prime Minister of a developed country - has the balls to start looking at taxing religious organizations and actually doing it, there will be a cascade effect that will reduce the WT to a squishy rubble. Right now, the federal tax agencies in various countries don't want to poke at the 'prove you're being charitable' pinata, but eventually it'll happen. Fringe religions like the WT who use roughly zero dollars for anything remotely charitable will be the first to feel it.
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  DesirousOfChange

  We talk about the collapse of the WT, but is there a precedent where certain religion has ceased to exist?

  United Society of Believers in Christ's 2nd Coming (aka the Shakers)

  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shakers

  Doc
  
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  Vidiot

  Regardless of what anyone thinks, I'm pretty sure the odds of the WTS going extinct are a lot better than the odds of the WTS's Armageddon actually happening. :smirk:
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  done4good

  mrmagic, nice extrapolation of the principle of Moore's Law, and the potential this could have on the organization. Information is power, and ultimately this power is released due to the sub-processes at work beneath Moore's law, (which are really laws of physics). While Moore's law in of itself is not a law of physics, it is those very laws, (especially in the quantum realm), that serve to govern what can be done with chip and processing technology, since electrons are as small as they are and travel at the speeds they do.

  A 19th century end-times movement is no match for this long term.

  d4g
  
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  steve2

  Excellent thread . Marked so I can read the individual posts carefully later today.
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  steve2

  This thread stands out as a solidly focused discussion around the future of jw.org, with minimal sniping/quipping and plainly sound attempts by individual's to back up their predictions. The calibre of reasoning is impressive, given the spread of views.

  Here are the main points, identified by the posters, from start to this point (I hope I do not misrepresent what posters have said):

  Macy:

  I wanna make a poll here. How many years do you think the JDub cult will exist as is and what will happen to it?

  I say the growth stops this year and starts to decline. I give it 10 years before the numbers are cut in half, that means 4 million publishers and in 15 years there will not be anymore JDub org. Just a shell of die hards and others from 3rd world countries. But once they get internet access even that growth will end.

  sir82:

  JWs will contine to exist long after all of us on this board have returned to dust. There will always be several million willing to buy what they sell. I also think the decline will start in a few yeears.

  Simon:

  I predict that in 10 years time people will be predicting that the WTS will be seriously declining in 10 years time. Even if they disappeared tomorrow, the people who currently attend would find or invent the equivalent.

  OneEyeJoe:

  I expect them to stop reporting full stats in the next few years to a decade to hide the decline.

  DesirousofChange:

  It will be here under new and incredible leadeship (again) when we are gone.

  Sofia Lose:

  I bet it will outlive all of us.

  WireRider:

  Religion as a whole has been in a decline for years, and they (JWs) will probably get hit hardest.

  never a jw:

  There will never be a dramatic decline, but the gradual downward trend is clear and in start contrast to the upward trend of just 20 years ago.

  SlimBoyFat:

  I predict there will be well over 10 million [publishers] in 10 years time and around 30 million at the memorial.

  freddo:

  Memorial atendance has hovered around 20 million for the past five years. I believe 2015.2016 will show peak publishers give or take 1% for the next few years. Baptisms are down on the peaks of 300,000.

  doneforgood:

  The rate of change in the roganization has rapidly acelerated. I did not forsee any of the desperate cahnges 10 years ago.

  Vidiot:

  ...a lot of us predicted the collapse of the Tower because we need to believe it will eventually happen for peace of mind.

  Finkelstein:

  Religious institutions like this are run and built upon human ignorance, fear and insecurity.

  Crazy guy:

  The internet is killing the Christian religion.

  LongHairGal:

  The only thing I care about is that the religionis exposed and the general public are enlightened.

  LoveUniHateExams:

  The WTS will be around for a very long time...there's one thing the organization excels in: its ability to survive.

  mrmagic:

  Everything has a lifer cycle and that includes religions/cults. I personally don't think it will even take five years for them to completely die out as they are now.

  RubaDub:

  Their end is soon...very soon..just around the corner.