Taking bets on how long this cult will last and what will happen to it

by macys 47 Replies latest watchtower beliefs

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  macys

  I wanna make a poll here. How many years do you think the JDub cult will exist as is and what will happen to it?

  I say the growth stops this year and starts to decline. I give it 10 years before the numbers are cut in half, that means 4 million publishers and in 15 years there will not be anymore JDub org. Just a shell of die hards and others from 3rd world countries. But once they get internet access even that growth will end.
  

  I visit other apostate sites during the day when I am bored and I see more and more members joining. The numbers of X-JDubs are growing exponentially. The org is bleeding and getting old. I remember when I was still going to my meeting 90% were old people all in their 70's and 80;s. No new blood. When they die, that is it!

  Knowledge is power!

  XOXO
  
• 

  sir82

  JWs will continue to exist long after all of us on this board have returned to dust.

  There will always be several million people willing to buy what they sell, especially in 3rd world countries where any sort of hope, even pipe dreams based on Biblical hopscotch, is better than what they've got.

  That said, I also think the decline will start within a few years, but it will be slow and gradual.

  The WTS will slowly, slowly fizzle into (even further) insignificance.

  In some ways, I think, that will be even more satisfying than a grand implosion.
  
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  Simon

  I predict that in 10 years time people will be predicting that the WTS will be seriously declining in 10 years time :D

  They are a religion of churn, they always have been and they are not unique in their beliefs or practices. Even if the WTS disappeared tomorrow, the people who currently attend would find or invent the equivalent IMO. It seems there will always be a certain segment of the population that certain types of religions appeal to which kind of makes trying to destroy them pointless - it's whack-a-mole and another will spring up if one is killed off to satisfy the market demand.

  Only the long term but more gradual societal change away from religion in general will bring lasting change but I think that is multiple (overlapping, ha) generations.

  We'd love them to vanish but I think it's just wishful thinking. Of course they won't be the religion they are today just as they are no longer the religion of a decade ago.
• 

  macys

  I know what you are saying and you are right about the churn but you are forgetting one big thing. You are forgetting that if this cult is supposedly being blessed by Jehovah then there should be growth. A lot of growth, especially if we are living in the last days LOL and this will help them to wake up and leave even more. Once that begins there will be no stopping it. .
  
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  OnTheWayOut

  "I say the growth stops this year and starts to decline. I give it 10 years before the numbers are cut in half, that means 4 million publishers and in 15 years there will not be anymore JDub org. "

  Watchtower will not be around forever. As to your prediction above, I tend to go along with the growth part and say they may have already peaked and are using manipulated numbers (not necessarily lies, but inaccuracies based on little slips of paper from congregations around the world turned in all at once to raise 'peak' numbers). I can even sort of go along with your 10-years thought to cut numbers in half- give or take. The members are mostly over 40 years old, much higher on the over-70 crowd. Their only growth is in small percentages of children of JW's.

  I don't go along with them being gone 5 years after that, or even slightly longer. As Watchtower shrinks to 2 or even 1 million members, they will adapt. They will retain and recruit enough to stay alive for some more time. But I hope I am wrong.
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  cappytan

  I'm putting my money on negative growth within 10 years, but a 50% decline is a bit optimistic, in my opinion. Remember that they're seeing tremendous growth in the latino populations and countries in Africa. (If we are to believe the numbers.)

  But I could see that within the next 10 years numbers in the US fall in the hundreds of thousands.
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  sir82

  You are forgetting that if this cult is supposedly being blessed by Jehovah then there should be growth. A lot of growth, especially if we are living in the last days

  There hasn't been growth above the rate of increase of the general population for 20+ years.

  Growth has been slowing for the past 2 decades, but it is still growth.
  
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  Stealth

  Many thought the same thing like 15 years ago when the WT was exposed as being a NGO in the UN. Didn't happen.
  

  I will take your bet that the numbers will decline to 50% in 15 years. How much $$ are you willing to to put up.
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  OneEyedJoe

  I guess it depends on how you measure it. If you're measuring it the way the GB probably is - in dollars and cents - they've probably already peaked. Areas in Europe (UK and Germany) are already showing decline, as is Japan and I suspect Australia has seen their peak. Areas where people have money are not growing. The US has probably peaked too, but they're putting extra effort (the US is now the US branch territory and includes other areas that have some growth yet) into fudging the numbers and picking up immigrants to hide the decline since the US is their crown jewel. They may grow in the 3rd world for some time, but they won't have the economic support that they once had.

  I expect them to stop reporting the full stats in the next few years to a decade as they run out of ways to hide the decline without waking up more bethelites with overly dishonest tactics. Honestly, though, I suspect that most of the attrition of the next 10-20 years will be the older generation dying off. The average member's age is way too high for a healthy business, and they'll be forced to reorganize into a leaner cult. The thing that I think will be most interesting to see is if, as the older ones die off, we see an exodus of the next generation as they discover their reason for staying in (often the approval of their parents, it seems) evaporates.
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  macys

  I am a student on a tight budget so right now $5 is all I got!