minimus,
Great thread. I have to admit I didn't expect much out of it. Glad I was wrong.
YOR,
Great comments. At Bethel, my job, my attendance at the Brooklyn Heights congo and a couple of friendships put me in close contact with a few on the GB. But it became routine, and I began to respect them less and less, the better I knew them. Also had an uncle in Circuit work, and my father always worked closely with COs and DOs. (Even my own father admitted that the Apostle Paul would throw a fit over the issue of "turning in our time.")
I just mainly wanted to add that I just spoke last week with two very knowledgable old friends from Bethel (both worked in Writing for many years). One friend especially talked about the aging of the GB, the subtle changes to doctrine for PR and legal purposes, the possibility of JW reform and mainstreaming the religion for survival. He sees very serious trouble. He mentioned the fact that the increases are now only coming from poorer areas that are not able to sustain monetary contributions. He sees money as a factor in their survival.
The problem is that JWs could still survive a good shaking. With Memorial attendance worldwide near 15,000,000, relaxed membership standards could allow them to count perhaps 10,000,000. Using that number, even a 5% drop per year would still leave them with 1,000,000 members in 45 years. I still remember when there were less than a million in my lifetime. Of course, a sustained drop will create a vicious morale cycle that would decimate them more quickly, but my point is that they would still have time (and breathing room) to start over, even if a few early attempts at reform don't work out.
I agree with the idea that JWs currently have a critical mass of problems, but they also have a critical mass of people (in more than one sense of the phrase). They could still turn it around and survive with numbers quite similar to those of Seventh Day Adventists, Mormoms, and many other "household name" religions.
I'd love to talk further about this.
Gamaliel