Extraordinary increase...?

by MacHislopp 24 Replies latest jw friends

• 

  Francois

  This is all so silly. If the number of "believers" in a particular religion is proof of God's support, then JWs are way, way down on the list - way after a billion Budhists and Hindus, way after almost that many Catholics, and the Islamists in their hundreds of millions. And even after the Southern Baptists, twenty million strong. And Methodists, Presbyterians, Lutherans, Episcopalians and Holy Rollers must too be considered, vastly outnumbering the pitifully few JWs. And when you subtract the JWs that are there for appearance sake, who are there to maintain their families intact but who no longer believe, who are 15-minute ministers, the numbers become even more paltry. The society attempts to make a silk purse from a sow's ear.

  Careful analysis of the JWs own numbers reveals a revolving door, with as many flying out the back door as creep in the front. The JWs have got that old book, "How to Lie With Statistics" memorized and use it liberally.

  Under the searching light of Truth, all the flaws and falts and lies and venality and mendacity of Jehovah's Witnesses jumps into clear, crisp focus. And the sight of illuminated Truth is revolting. Like turning over a dead body to reveal a nest of crawling maggots.

  I feverently hope and pray that the organization of Jehovah's Witnesses is about to live out its well-deserved karma.

  Francois
• 

  MacHislopp

  Hello Everyone,

  thanks for the comments.

  From Nicoloau :

  « And when you subtract the JWs that are there for appearance sake, who are there to maintain their families intact but who no longer believe, who are 15-minute ministers, the numbers become even more paltry. The society attempts to make a silk purse from a sow's ear. »

  Great and really nicely worded. So now, what’s lefts really ?

  From OldHippie :

  « So there is no mystery about these figures, it's just plain demography and statistics. As to some other figures, there are mysteries, I'll try to calculate those ones later. »

  Thanks for you precise comments. Please remember that some of my quetions are..
  rethorical...just for those who wish to justify avery action of the WTBS Inc.
  Your points are correct. Btw, sometimes trhey did quote « 35,000, 40,000 .. »
  and even more disfellowshipped every year but they added that sometimes
  30-50% of them are reintegrated !!

  I’m eagerly waiting ...for your calculations. Thanks.

  Perry, thanks for the comments.

  « ...whose sole shepherding tool for healing those in need is cold "do more" counsel or disfellowshipment so that they don't have deal with the problems. »

  It looks like ..the only reason that the « Elders « are left there, and from what we hear,
  it’s a worldwide problem.

  Greetings, J.C.MacHislopp
• 

  Grunt

  My favorite example of numerical discrepancies with the Tower is one posted by Osarif
  back on H20. It showed the difference between how many "anointed" were alive and how many SHOULD be alive according to insurance actuarial tables.

  No. Anointed & Statistics

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  Posted by Osarsif [osarsif] on March 20, 2000 at 22:34:05 {mhiJaXsBGQ/tdQwHs/M.HWDmSKGzPQ}:

  A person sent me this:

  Actuarial Assumptions: 1. The full number of anointed were sealed in 1935. 2. No new members have been added to this number, except for replacements. These replacements are not statistically significant. 3. The average age of the anointed ones in 1935 was 30. This would be considered a mature (although young) age for a person to be considered for the most important job in the universe. Methodology: In the early years, the number of anointed gradually decreased, as would be expected. The rate of this decrease slowed to the point where, in the late 1980's, it actually stopped, and the number began to grow. The rate of decrease began to become abnormal around 1970. If we take the number of anointed in 1970, and apply a standard actuarial table to them, we should arrive at the expected population of that group today. The actuarial table is taken from "The New York Public Library Science Desk Reference". Expected Mortality Ending Actual Rate Quantity Quantity Variance Age 1970 10368 0 65 1971 0.02022 10158 10526 368 66 1972 0.02204 9934 10384 450 67 1973 0.02386 9697 10350 653 68 1974 0.02568 9448 10523 1075 69 1975 0.02731 9190 10723 1533 70 1976 0.03011 8914 10550 1636 71 1977 0.03291 8620 10187 1567 72 1978 0.03571 8312 10080 1768 73 1979 0.03851 7992 9762 1770 74 1980 0.04131 7662 9727 2065 75 1981 0.04579 7311 9564 2253 76 1982 0.05027 6944 9601 2657 77 1983 0.05475 6564 9529 2965 78 1984 0.05923 6175 9292 3117 79 1985 0.06371 5781 9081 3300 80 1986 0.06371 5413 9051 3638 81 1987 0.06371 5068 8808 3740 82 1988 0.06371 4745 8685 3940 83 1989 0.06371 4443 8734 4291 84 1990 0.06871 4138 8869 4731 85 1991 0.07371 3833 8850 5017 86 1992 0.07871 3531 8683 5152 87 1993 0.08371 3235 8693 5458 88 1994 0.08871 2948 8617 5669 89 1995 0.09371 2672 8645 5973 90 1996 0.09871 2408 8657 6249 91 1997 0.10371 2159 8795 6636 92 1998 0.10871 1924 8756 6832 93 1999 0.11371 1705 8755 7050 94 Conclusions: As can be seen, the number of anointed in 1999 exceeds the actuarially expected number by over 7000. This means that 80.5% of those currently claiming to be of the anointed are partaking unworthily. In other words, most of the anointed are bogus. An alternate conclusion is that the doctrine as set forth by the WBTS is in error. Accuracy: Actuarial tables are meant to be applied to large populations. Applying them to a group of 8,000 will not yield perfectly accurate results. Assuming an error of +/- 10% does not impact the conclusions.

  Dang it, it came out without the columns. I'm sorry and I hope you could get the meaning of it anyway. I don't know how many partook in 2002 but I imagine the lie only gets worse.
• 

  MacHislopp

  Hello Grunt,

  thanks for the comment.

  I dp remember the data. I did actually out them on a file.
  I did personally give the count the number of "anointed"
  with the ..." additions"...so you could easily see the problem
  would be a ..never ending one (for the WTBS Inc.).

  Greetings, J.C.MacHislopp
• 

  ozziepost

  Good point Mac. The WTS do seem to want it both ways, don't they? Either increase is a sign of Jehovah's blessing, or it isn't.

  Of course, in their case, it truly is an "extraordinary increase" because, despite the regular baptisms numbered in the hundreds of thousands, the numbers in total don't reflect that supposed 'increase'. Perhaps its "extraordinary" because it's matched by a corresponding "decrease"!!! (people leaving out the back door)

  That's it! The borg is really a sieve! It leaks like crazy.

  Cheers,
  Ozzie

  "If our hopes for peace are placed in the hands of imperfect people, they are bound to evaporate."

  
  - Ron Hutchcraft Surviving the Storms of Stress
• 

  somebody

  Hi,MacHislopp,

  Now back to the first quote from the watchtower ‘s
  recent article, is this
  “extraordinary increase” the “evidence “
  “with which he has blessed them...”?

  That quote makes me laugh in itself. Only because i find what the wbts say is "evidence" is just plain silly. heres one quote from a wt that I'll use for an example:

  12 We have evidence that God is protecting us now as a class. For instance, if such were not the case, we would have been wiped from the face of the earth long ago by Satan.

  If that were "evidence" then I guess God has been protecting the whole human race. As a "class", of course . Either that or they have "evidence" that satan is protecting all those outside their little class because God hasn't wiped us out yet. I laugh when the wbts use both the word"evidence" and "fact" because i've found that whatever they say after either of those words is usually b.s. Anyhoo...back to your subject.......

  Is vast majority of the JW’s , aware
  of the real figures?

  
  I doubt very much that the majority are aware of the REAL figures. Thank you for posting them.

  These two quotes were made 4 months apart. One of them has already been quoted by dmouse. That same quote was also in the Jan. 15, 2001 Watchtower.

  Jan. 15, 2001 WT

  Of course, the number of those associated with Jehovah's Witnesses is not a criterion for determining if they enjoy divine favor; nor do statistics impress God.

  May 15 2001 WT

  Thousands Thronging to True Worship

  Jehovah is now performing great and praiseworthy deeds in connection with our preaching activity…Consult the current Yearbook of Jehovah's Witnesses, and note the lands now reporting from 100,000 to nearly 1,000,000 Kingdom publishers. This is powerful proof that the Kingdom-preaching work is being blessed by Jehovah.

  
  "powerful proof" lol!

  It's great to see you posting again.

  peace,
  somebody
• 

  Nathan Natas

  There really is "nothing new under the sun," is there?

  I was unaware of Osarif's work on anointed actuarials when I posted some of my own research several weeks ago. Like Osarif, I found the anointed population "supernatural" in it's stability.
• 

  simplesally

  I know that OH has told you to include the number of df'd ones per one. We see it in print that the number is close to 40,000 and they add the tidbit, mostly for immorality, in talks from the platform.

  I just love how they judge people. And they expect ones who are df'd in the audience to just keep eating humble pie. This ignoring treatment and calling them wicked, evil and unrepentant seems to be working wonders for them.
• 

  larc

  I just went to the Freeminds website, which has some interesting graphs and statistics. The overall increase for last year was 1.71% this is down from 2.28% the year before and only slightly above the world population growth of 1.5%.

  They are not growing in 24 major counrties. In most of these 24 countries, they have not grown in 5 years. So with the growing of their own (having kids) and having Bible studies, they are not fairing very well.

  Two leading indicators of future growth, are number of book studies and the number of baptisms. Since 1992, the average number of book studies has fallen by 20%. Since 1997, the number of baptisms has fallen by 32%. Based on these numbers, I don't see any way that the WT can stop their decline.

  Do I think they cook the books? No, I don't, otherwise they would pad records and make things look better. Will they inflate the numbers in the future? Perhaps. I think the new 15 minute rule regarding field service is an attempt to prop up the numbers.
• 

  OUTLAW

  Hey larc,you can prop up a dead dog,but its still going to smell real bad.(LOL)...OUTLAW