Selective Statistics & extraordinary JW claims

by Syme 18 Replies latest watchtower beliefs

  • Syme
    Syme

    * A JW family leave their crops and livestock unattained to go to a convention. When they return, the crops and livestock are doing just fine.

    * A desperate person is anxiously praying to God to give her a chance to know Him. Even before the prayer is concluded, two JWs knock at her door.

    * A pioneer prefers to take leave from her work in order to attend the Pioneer School, even though she's sure she'll be fired. When she returns, she learns that she has kept the job.

    * A head of family decides to quit his job because it conficts with meetings and field service. Later, he finds a better-paying job with less hours.

    * A teen JW decides to leave the truth and live a worldly life. A few years later he's a complete fail: drugs, depression, and between prison sentences.

    What do all of the above stories have in common, provided that they are true and accurate?

    In the WTS's official explanation, they are a proof that what the Organization teaches is always correct: that God provides when we obey his instructions, that angels guide the jws to find 'sheep', that failure is guaranteed if you leave the truth, etc.

    In reality, these are all examples of Selection Bias, or as some call it, Selective Statistics.

    Selective statistics is when you have a population from which to draw conclusions and you select only the samples that suit your story; the rest you just ignore them. It's easy to see that selective statistics is at the heart of most of extraordinary JW claims.

    In the above-mentioned examples, consider: How many witnesses have taken absence from their work for 'theocratic' purposes and not got their job back? How many pioneers try like crazy to find a job and yet remain practically unemployed? How many jws in developing countries have left their crops/houses to attend convention and found them plundered or ruined? How many desperate people all around the globe pray every day to know God and God does not send his witnesses right after? How many young jws have left the 'truth' and have not failed in their life? No-one, not even one? Or is it the majority? Even if few of this counnter-expamples existed (they're not few), they would automatically debunk JW claims about 'Heveanly intervention'. Either way, pure (and not selective) statistics show that in the worldwide JW population, all these things follow a normal pattern as with every other population ...However, the examples that do not serve our 'purpose' have to be left out! Or else, how are we going to persuade the ignorant sheep, that don't have a clue about statistics and critical thinking?

    (As you can imagine, selective statistics debunks not only the JW's claims, but also a lot of extraordinary claims like homeopathy, telepathy, etc, but this exceeds the purposes of this topic. There are a lot of good books on the subject, like Ben Goldacre's Bad Science and Michael Shermer's Why people believe weird things.)

  • DesirousOfChange
    DesirousOfChange

    What about all the NON-JWs that have good experiences happen to them?

    OH, I FORGOT! Satan is blessing THEM!

    Doc

  • LisaRose
    LisaRose

    If something good happens to a JW, Jehovah is blessing them, if something bad happens, well, Satan is testing them. They get their bias confirmed either way.

    As they say, there are three kinds of lies; Lies, damn lies, and statistics

  • eyeuse2badub
    eyeuse2badub

    I once prayed for a puppy! That very afternoon my dad bought me a hotdog for lunch! I was "convinced" that my prayer had been answered!

    Just saying!

    eyeuse2badub

  • ohnightdivine
    ohnightdivine

    LOL. Thanks for the laugh, eyeuse2badub

  • Crazyguy
    Crazyguy

    Yesterdays talk someone mention a brother not accepting a job offer he needed badly because he would miss a meeting or something and the replacement guys work was so bad this brother got the job any way. While they were mentioning this I was thinking about another brother who lost his job and decided to go right into pioneering for do this he would naturally be blessed. Well what do you know the brother didn't get any job offers any work and of course was not invited to an assembly to tell his story.

  • Oubliette
    Oubliette

    Every other religion has the same stories. They (even if true, which I doubt all of them are) prove nothing other than the fact that people see/believe what they want to see/believe.

    It's also called confirmation bias.

  • steve2
    steve2

    I once prayed intently for a parking space in a busy city shopping mall as I drove around and around in circles with no park available.

    I swear I heard a loud voice intone, "Find it yourself; I'm too busy trying to fix things in the Middle East".

    I was shaken but upon reflection that was the most salient answer to my prayers ever.

    Boy did I grow my spirituality that day. Oh, and I found a parking lot which led me to say out loud: "Praise to you, Lord Steve!"

    I haven't directly heard from God since - but truly I do not mind: I understand he's got quite a load going on in the Middle East and I saw on the news last night that the Central African Republic is turning to custard...again. Man, if he could get some results there, I'd be inclined to turn to him again for parking spaces. But until then, praise be to Steve!

  • Socrateswannabe
    Socrateswannabe

    Great topic Syme and I enjoyed your OP. It's amazing that JWs don't seem to think about the billions of prayers that go unanswered, for JWs and non-JWs alike. Even when it is a JW prayer and is "in accordance with Jehovah's will", what is the real percentage of prayers that are "answered"? Probably as mathematically close to zero as possible. And the ones that are "answered" are happenstance, as you have explained so well in your opening post. Why would a god who is powerful enough to have created the universe have any interest in the niggling problems that humans bring to him on a daily basis anyway? Yet when one of these prayers seem to have gotten god's attention, it's worthy of a few lines in a Watchtower publication!

  • Oubliette
    Oubliette

    Steve2: I once prayed intently for a parking space in a busy city shopping mall as I drove around and around in circles with no park available.

    Too funny!

    Actually, as I'm sure you know, a lot of JWs believe in this kind of god. You might find this old thread entertaining:

    Jehovah, the God of Parking Lots

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