250,000 Jehovah's Witnesses have died refusing blood

by nicolaou 739 Replies latest watchtower medical

  • Marvin Shilmer
    Marvin Shilmer

    -

    “The other causes of death are based on the figures for the general population with the same percentages applied to the JW population. If more JWs were dying because of refusing blood transfusions then those would be in addition to those values shown which would be larger to encompass them. I don't think your point is at all relevant as it wouldn't materially change things.”

    Simon,

    You’re operating under a false premise.

    We have mortality figures for the population in general.

    We do not have mortality figures specific to JWs to know if their mortality rate is higher than the general population.

    If we assume JWs would have an identical mortality rate as the general population were it not for their unique blood refusal then the factor of blood refusal would only increase that mortality rate for conditions like, for instance, severe anemia.

    As it stands deaths of JWs due to refusal of blood are distributed throughout that table you showed a few pages back. Because of this it is impossible to compare one with the other without being able to extract one from the other first.

    “Personally, I think a claim that at least 3 out of every 100 JW deaths would be due to refusing blood is laughable.”

    Yes. You’ve made that clear. What you’ve not made clear is that you understand the math showing how well dispersed these figures are to the point of not being able to observe without retrospective statistical analysis. I don't think you understand this at all. But, then, we each are entitled to opinion. Right?

    “I doubt 3 out of every 100 even have "refusing blood" come up as an issue. How many people simply die of old age? Not every death is a dramatic event.”

    You probably won’t understand this, but I’m going to point it out anyway. The “refusing blood” issue arises as a factor every time a JWs presents themselves for medical service. When or if this has an impact on a patient’s survival is often unknown (and maybe unknowable) at the time. It can only be identified after the fact by a statistical analysis of hundreds if not thousands of patient outcomes.

    Marvin Shilmer

  • Marvin Shilmer
    Marvin Shilmer

    -

    Adamah,

    I had a colleague make inquiry.

    None of the minors included in Beliaev’s study died for blood refusal.

    Marvin Shilmer

  • Marvin Shilmer
    Marvin Shilmer

    -

    “Still, it's nice to see there are more studies available - they can certainly be used to construct a more comprehensive model.”

    Simon,

    I have hundreds of these studies in my library. They’re helpful toward understanding there’s significant mortality figures out there due to Watchtower’s blood doctrine. But for purposes of extrapolating an overall estimate of deaths due to Watchtower doctrine there is a near universal lack of sufficient data because they’re usually always of some condition that is either 1) not easily comparable across gender boundaries (like obstetric hemorrhage), or 2) of a morbidity that is only a relatively minor factor in the overall picture (like heart surgery) or 3) is not conducive to identifying a given population of JWs in order to calculate an overall mortality rate.

    Marvin Shilmer

  • Simon
    Simon

    You’re operating under a false premise.

    We have mortality figures for the population in general.

    We do not have mortality figures specific to JWs to know if their mortality rate is higher than the general population.

    Exactly, I'm trying to come up with the likely number of JW deaths and causes of death based on standard rates for the entire population.

    While there may be some reasons why some figures would vary (e.g. JWs not smoking, less likely to take drugs etc...) I doubt the figures would be massively different.

    Taking the percentages for the whole population (350m) and applying it to a 7.5m segment of that is a lot sounder than taking 19 and applying it to 7.5m

  • Marvin Shilmer
    Marvin Shilmer

    -

    “Exactly, I'm trying to come up with the likely number of JW deaths and causes of death based on standard rates for the entire population.

    “While there may be some reasons why some figures would vary (e.g. JWs not smoking, less likely to take drugs etc...) I doubt the figures would be massively different.

    “Taking the percentages for the whole population (350m) and applying it to a 7.5m segment of that is a lot sounder than taking 19 and applying it to 7.5m”

    Simon,

    Your approach does only one thing: It gives us an estimated number of JWs who died of various causes based on an assumption that JWs suffer death at the same rate and for the same reasons as the general population.

    That’s fine for estimating general mortality among JWs. I have no beef with that.

    What’s wrongheaded about your approach is that it tells us nothing whatsoever about deaths due to refusal of blood, and it gives us no benchmark to compare these known number of deaths against because these deaths from blood refusal are contained within the very statistic you’ve created. To compare deaths due to blood refusal to other causes of death you must first find a method to extract deaths due to blood refusal.

    My article using Beliaev’s data set showing 19 deaths due to blood refusal is designed to help ansewr that question, and it’s performed in a service area that allows us to build a ratio of deaths per capita of JWs for refusing blood.

    When I initially performed this extrapolation I did make comparison with other causes of death and asked myself the question of whether this number of deaths (due to refusing blood) could possibly be hidden within these general causes of death. The answer was yes. Easily! Another question I asked myself was what this number of deaths would look like to the average JW in any given congregation or circuit. When I built statistics around congregation and circuit communities of JWs it became apparent that this number of deaths would hardly be perceptible. This was only made worse by the sociological practice among JWs to downplay instances where blood refusal was big news and the JW patient died.

    I looked at this whole thing from many perspectives before publishing my findings. One thing I made sure of was to maintain conservative factors each time I had to include a factor for the mathematics of the whole thing.

    It’s apparent that some here disagree with me, and I’m perfectly fine with that. But I remain convinced that at least 50,000 JWs have died over blood refusal since year 1961.

    Not too much attention has been given to why I chose 1961. Primarily this decision stems from reading hundreds of legal cases filed in relation to JWs refusing blood. There is a hug database out there of legal cases filed in criminal and civil courts. Properly filtered a picture emerged that prior to 1961 when JWs were not disfellowshipped for accepting blood the response of JWs to Watchtower’s blood doctrine was very different than at and after 1961. In 1961 JWs began refusing blood like never before. Hence my focus on 1961 onward.

    Marvin Shilmer

  • Finkelstein
    Finkelstein

    Finkelstein,

    At least 50,000 between the years 1961 and 2011.

    There is a probability factor that could be more + or less - on that amount, not worth arguing over is it.

    So whats all the rhetoric about then, over one stupid incomplete statistic taken in New Zealand ?

    Good Grief

  • adamah
    adamah

    LisaRose said-

    Yes, I understand about palliative patients, I am not talking about them.I am talking about patients who have some condition that is still being treated. If you have cancer, they may be still be giving you chemo, still treating you, even if your outlook is grim, I wouldn't think that would be considered palliative care. The patients may extend their life a few more months through a transfusion, but they may then die due to the underlying condition. The study is only considering costs and mortality during the hospital stay. They are not at all looking at longer term mortality of even a few months. If you look longer term, you may see more of the non JWs who eventually succumb to their illness. This would completely change the statistics.

    We're talking about the same thing, since what you're talking about does involve the palliative care (AKA hospice) exclusion used in the study.

    Even though it's most-commonly associated with the elderly, hospice can serve the needs of pediatric pts, and for the same exact reason: they've been diagnosed with a terminal medical condition and their physician feels their prognosis is poor, and end of life is near (usu. within 3 months). Of course in some cases, by refusing blood, JWs are hastening their own demise (esp for conditions such as untreated anemia) such that in severe cases they're virtually signing their own death certificate by refusing Tx. But by excluding those palliative care pts from the study, it's likely biasing towards those pts (patients) who are not as critical, and thus exaggerating or amplifying the cost effects of pts who are "hanging on" and thus driving up costs for their ongoing care due to needing more-expensive ongoing treatment, multiple visits to the ER/ICU, etc, rather than just dying within a short period (where, to be blunt, a quick death is the ultimate cost containment).

    In other words, the pts who got sent to pallative care likely had comorbidities (i.e. other medical conditions which may have contributed to their symptom of severe anemia), where their deaths meant lower costs in the JW group, IF they had not been excluded (I'm guessing that the untreated cases of severe symptomatic anemia which had no other complicating diagnoses must pass away rather quickly anyway, and there'd be little point to sending them to hospice (although that's just a hunch, AKA an assumption.)

    Marvin said-

    For varied reasons you and I hold different views on how much the teens in Beliaev’s study (assuming there were teens in the group) would influence the number I concluded. That aside for a moment, I’m not sure your direct comparison of legality has the effect you think because in service areas like the USA though the law is different I’m not so sure the outcome is different. Let me explain what I mean. Doctors in the USA have a duty to provide appropriate care for all patients.

    When an adult patient refuses appropriate care doctors are not allowed to overturn the decision unless the patient is incompetent or does not have a healthcare proxy completed when they were competent. When a doctor is confronted with refusal of treatment by a minor or parents/guardians of a minor a legal and ethical challenge arises over what is appropriate care for the patient when alternative treatment exists.

    Thanks for the lesson on standard of care and patient's rights, Dr Schiller. Can I earn CME credit for that lecture?

    The thing you seemingly don't understand is that the PATIENT ultimately has the final decision on their course of treatment, NOT the doctor: the provider MUST respect the patient's decision, EVEN IF the reason the patient provides is utterly absurd in their eyes, and EVEN IF the patient provides NO reason at all for their choice.

    It's THE PATIENT'S body, and hence it's THEIR RIGHT to do with it as they see fit, AND FOR NO REASON, or for ANY REASON (within limits: if the provider has a clinical suspicions of their not being mentally competent, the onus is on them to seek out the professional opinion of a colleague in the mental health field to make that determination).

    Hence a provider is minimally required to provide the pt with information on their treatment options (i.e. risks v benefits of the proposed courses of treatment), document the advice they gave (in order to defend themselves, in case they get sued for malpractice after being accused of failing to meet their standard of care), and follow the pts wishes, IF THEY CAN DO SO without compromising their profession's standard of care.

    A doctor CAN refuse to provide care for any patient, if they feel the pt requests would violate their profession's standard of care; in that case, the doctor needs to make a referral to another provider (preferably a specialist who has experience) who IS willing and able to provide alternative treatment, and who agrees to accept caring for the patient. In any case, the doctor MUST avoid abandoning the patient, since it's a violation of professional standards to simply leave the pt in limbo, without any care.

    In the end, a provider only has an obligation to explain the risks vs benefits of alternative treatment options in as fair and balanced a manner as possible, and the patient has to decide under their own power. Some providers will rely on their powers of persuasion and interpersonal communication skills to try and convince the pt of what they believe is option provides the better chance of obtaining a successful outcome, but it remains the patient's choice and they have to live (or die) with the results.

    Unfortunately, many doctors let their egos get in the way, and end up getting frustrated or taking it as a personal affront when the patient refuses to do what THEY want them to do, like all the other patients. That's the doctor's problem, and often reflective of the old-skool "Doctor is God" thinking which is hopefully becoming a thing of the past.

    I couldn't sleep at night unless I remembered the old saying, "You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make it drink." (well, if the horse were dehydrated, technically you could restrain it and start an IV infusion with Ringers to rehydrate, but.....)

    In much the same way, we must appeal directly to the JW PATIENT, and explain WHY the choice to refuse a BT for themselves or to pressure their family is not wise, since at the end of the day, it remains THEIR choice. And if you think creating a number will have some dramatic impact, then go for it. Just consider that it's also likely to have a paradoxical response, eliciting the thinking of, "well, 50k OTHERS refused blood and died for it, so it MUST be the right choice". Or if they decide after seeing the hyperbolic claim of 50k deaths, and reject what is good advice (thinking that the GB's words of apostates being willing to lie is true). Their blood is partly on your head, if they are influenced by your metric.

    With that, I'm out and back to lurking.

    Adam

    EDIT:

    Marvin said-

    None of the minors included in Beliaev’s study died for blood refusal.

    Of course there weren't any: that's the entire point of them being considered "minors": they're under the age of consent in NZ.

    However, that's an answer to the question I didn't ask. The real question is:

    Were there any pts aged 16-18 y.o included in the JW group amongst the 21 deaths reported who died from refusing BT?

    Adam

  • Marvin Shilmer
    Marvin Shilmer

    -

    "Were there any pts aged 16-18 y.o included in the JW group amongst the 21 deaths reported who died from refusing BT?"

    No.

    The other stuff you wrote above avoids the point. There is nothing to reply to.

    Marvin Shilmer

  • Marvin Shilmer
    Marvin Shilmer

    -

    “Yes, I understand about palliative patients, I am not talking about them. I am talking about patients who have some condition that is still being treated. If you have cancer, they may be still be giving you chemo, still treating you, even if your outlook is grim, I wouldn't think that would be considered palliative care. The patients may extend their life a few more months through a transfusion, but they may then die due to the underlying condition. The study is only considering costs and mortality during the hospital stay. They are not at all looking at longer term mortality of even a few months. If you look longer term, you may see more of the non JWs who eventually succumb to their illness. This would completely change the statistics.”

    LisaRose,

    You’re not accounting for the matched comparison factor. The matched comparison factor mitigates the issue you raise because patients in each group are as likely to succumb.

    For any given disease any given treatment can make the difference between success or failure of co-treatments. In this instance the treatment at issue is transfusion of red cells. If co-treatments are necessary yet their efficacy is reduced or eliminated because a particular treatment option is not implemented in concert then lack of the latter treatment becomes a culprit. Many cancer patients in particular have necessity of blood product transfusion because chemotherapies can (to different degrees) adversely affect blood. Hence transfusion of various blood products becomes a necessary therapy in concert with treating the primary condition. In these patients if blood product is not administered it often means the primary treatment of disease is either impossible or it must be reduced. This increases risk of mortality or additional morbidity.

    Marvin Shilmer

  • adamah
    adamah

    Marvin said-

    "Were there any pts aged 16-18 y.o included in the JW group amongst the 21 deaths reported who died from refusing BT?"

    No.

    OK, so do you now see ONE KNOWN problem, since the study's sub-population does not reflect ONE KNOWN property of the population for which you're trying to extrapolate a figure? Beliaev's study didn't contain any data points in a group (i.e. under 18 y.o. who are protected elsewhere) that is known to exist, since such cases exist in the rest of the World.

    This is YET another example of WHY the cautionary rule of science applies: "absense of evidence does NOT mean evidence of absense".

    So rather than the missing data points not presenting a problem, it actually exposes the foolishness of trying to rely on such a small sample: we now have EVIDENCE that the sample actually ISN'T representative of the larger population (i.e. there are JWs who are minors who ARE protected by law elsewhere), and such types are not represented in this small study, so the population of JWs Worldwide truly isn't a 'matched set' for the sample sub-population used in the study.

    So while that revelation doesn't directly create problems for the calculations you (questionably) used to generate a figure (i.e. 21 deaths/12,7000 in NZ JWs), it demonstrates why the study wasn't designed to produce results to show what you'd like it to study, for if it HAD, it would've excluded under 18 y.o.s from the start.

    (BTW, the next question would be, "Were there any pts aged 16-18 y.o included in the JW group who DIDN'T die from refusing BT?" That question would be pertinent for trying to extrapolate the findings for cost comparisons Worldwide, but you're not trying to do that, so it's largely irrelevant for your purposes.)

    So if you truly wanted to be "conservative" in generating a figure, you'd need to correct the estimate by determining the # of JWs Worldwide who are under 18 and subtracting that amount from the total figure before calculating (for 20XX, 7.4 mil - # of under 18 y.o.s Worldwide, which conservatively assumes that NONE are allowed to die, and ignores deaths in places like NZ which the study didn't show, but remain a possibility).

    Marvin said-

    The other stuff you wrote above avoids the point. There is nothing to reply to.

    It's not "avoiding the point", as you say: it's IS the point, a reality of the World that non-minors generally enjoy the RIGHT to self-ownership and self-determination (sovereignty of the individual) of what happens to their own bodies, to be the exclusive controller and determinant of their own life. It explains WHY JWs are allowed to refuse live-saving treatment and to die for their beliefs (and whether you choose to recognize that reality is another matter...)

    Hence others who object to their right to 'make their own bed' are forced to rely on their personal power of persuasions, only. And if you think fabricating some figure is the key that's suddenly going to open their eyes, then by all means, carry on. You have a right to freedom of speech,, just as much as anyone else.

    I'd just point out that you're likely over-estimating the impact of ANY number that could be generated, eg there's been over 115k people KILLED in Syria since Civil War broke out 2 years ago. Presumably most of these people didn't voluntarily DIE as JW martyrs: they were KILLED by others, and didn't choose to die (as JWs do).

    Where are all of the compassionate protestors, demanding that any international body intervene to stop the senseless and meaningless bloodshed? Most people are burned out on the news, blase', and just don't care, unless those deaths in Syria personally involve them. Worse though, many citizens DO look with a jaundiced eye at the idea of FORCING someone to live against their will, and likely would view any attempts to undermine that basic right to self-determination as an attack on THEIR rights and liberties, which is a compelling reason NOT to interfere.

    You and I know that JWs die for their delusional beliefs, but the only hope is to convince THEM individually why dying in the name of a twisted interpretation of a Bible passage that's mistranslated by a Brooklyn publishing corporation (!) is the height of foolishness and delusion. Misleading the readers via the use of ANY estimated figure (which is quantified as "conservative" OR "liberal") is missing the point that such efforts are highly-likely to only discount the credibility of the ones who foolishly make the claim(s), AKA back-firing.

    Adam

Share this

Google+
Pinterest
Reddit