SCAN - 2010 Worldwide Service Report Via 2011 Yearbook

by Gayle 39 Replies latest jw friends

• 

  Gayle

  Marcial,, you have PM,,click at envelope icon at top of this page by your name.

  Welcome to this site,,I don't know your language, but perhaps someone here does and can help with translation.
• 

  Achille

  The 2010 report in the Italian language is available here :
  
  http://www.infotdgeova.it/statistiche6.php Achille
• 

  Gayle

  Marcial,, you have a PM.
• 

  jgnat

  This project has absorbed me all day. I want to blame someone. Someone asked if the increases in certain countries could be explained by GDP. I checked; there is no correlation. There is a general pattern of growth based on the UN's Human Development Index (HDI). Countries with very high HDI experienced low or no growth in 2010. Generally, countries with very low HDI are likely to experience growth, but we have notable exeptions of Kenya and Malawi where there was a decline.

  I will post some more comments later, including an explanation why I compared only these 70 countries of the many "lands" published by the WTBTS.

  Country	% Catholic	% Muslim	2009 Growth	2010 Growth	Anomalous	Corrected Publisher Growth	GDP (billions)	Inequality-adjusted HDI	Inequality-adjusted education index
  Kenya	25%	7%		2%	Y	-1%	32.42	0.320	0.369
  Malawi	22%	12%		2%	Y	-1%	5.04	0.261	0.256
  Sweden	1.60%	2%		0%		0%	444.60	0.824	0.825
  Tanzania	26.69%	31%		2%	Y	0%	22.43	0.285	0.237
  Switzerland	46.08%	4%		0%		0%	522.40	0.813	0.786
  Portugal	90%	0%		0%		0%	223.70	0.700	0.670
  Austria	72%	4%		0%		0%	366.30	0.787	0.753
  Finland	0%	0%		0%		0%	238.00	0.806	0.805
  Belgium	76%	3%		0%		0%	461.30	0.794	0.784
  Netherlands	31%	6%		0%		0%	770.30	0.818	0.834
  Denmark	1%	2%		0%		0%	311.90	0.810	0.813
  Slovakia	73.07%			0%		0%	88.40	0.764	0.821
  Benin	23%	25%		3%	Y	0%	6.49	0.282	0.202
  Australia	28%	2%		1%		0%	1220.00	0.864	0.982
  Chile	71%	0%		1%		0%	199.20	0.634	0.657
  Japan	0%	0%		0%		0%	5391.00	..	..
  Czech Republic	34%	0%		0%		0%	195.20	0.790	0.859
  Mozambique	22%	23%		2%	Y	0%	10.21	0.155	0.144
  Germany	32%	5%		0%		0%	3306.00	0.814	0.858
  Canada	44%	2%		1%		0%	1564.00	0.812	0.834
  Poland	94%	0%		0%		0%	470.00	0.709	0.728
  Spain	87.79%	1%		1%		0%	1375.00	0.779	0.781
  Norway	1%	1%		1%		0%	413.50	0.876	0.919
  Haiti	65%	0%		2%	Y	0%	6.59	0.239	0.219
  Puerto Rico	73%	0%		1%		0%	93.52
  Jamaica		0%		1%		0%	13.74	0.574	0.619
  France	76%	5%		1%		1%	2555.00	0.792	0.751
  Britain	9%	3%		1%		1%	2259.00	0.766	0.766
  Nigeria	14%	49%		3%		1%	206.70	0.246	0.228
  Brazil	79%	0%		2%		1%	2024.00	0.509	0.470
  Greece	1%	3%		1%		1%	302.00	0.768	0.788
  Italy	97%	0%		1%		1%	2037.00	0.752	0.706
  Congo	50%	2%		3%		1%	11.88	0.334	0.330
  Cameroon	25%	18%		3%		1%	21.88	0.304	0.312
  Argentina	89%	2%		2%		1%	351.00	0.622	0.672
  Cuba	50%	0%		1%		1%	57.49
  USA	22.63%	1%		2%		1%	14620.00	0.799	0.863
  New Zealand	12%	1%		2%		1%	138.00	..	..
  Angola	50%	1%		4%		1%	85.81	0.242	0.207
  Hungary	58%	0%		1%		1%	132.30	0.736	0.815
  Panama	85%	1%		3%		1%	27.20
  Togo	24.85%	12%		4%		1%	3.07	0.287	0.264
  Uruguay	72.89%	0%		2%		2%	40.71	0.642	0.653
  Indonesia	3%	85%		3%		2%	695.10	0.494	0.424
  Moldova	0%	0%		1%	Y	2%	5.36
  Philippines	81%	5%		4%		2%	188.70	0.518	0.554
  Kazakhstan	1%	54%		3%	Y	2%	131.00	0.617	0.753
  Romania	9%	0%		2%	Y	2%	158.40	0.675	0.693
  Russia	1%	12%		2%	Y	3%	1477.00	0.636	0.631
  Guatemala	77%	0%		5%		3%	40.77	0.372	0.270
  El Salvador	76%	0%		4%		3%	21.80	0.477	0.415
  Nicaragua	82%	0%		4%		3%	6.38	0.426	0.333
  Colombia	86%	0%		4%		3%	283.10	0.492	0.482
  Ukraine	7.34%	1%		2%	Y	3%	136.60	0.652	0.795
  Peru	88%	0%		4%	Y	3%	153.50	0.501	0.510
  Mexico	87%	0%	4%	4%	Y	3%	1004.00	0.593	0.564
  Zambia	28%	0%	7%	5%		3%	15.69	0.270	0.330
  Bolivia	85%	0%		5%		3%	19.18	0.398	0.510
  Venezuela	87.82%	0%		5%	Y	3%	285.20	0.549	0.495
  Costa Rica	83%			5%		4%	35.44	0.576	0.519
  Dominican Republic	86%	0%		5%		4%	50.87	0.499	0.450
  India	2%	13%		5%		4%	1430.00	0.365	0.255
  Armenia		0%		4%	Y	4%	8.83	0.619	0.675
  Georgia		10%		4%	Y	5%	11.23	0.579	0.749
  Ecuador	90%	0%	7%	6%	Y	5%	56.50	0.554	0.501
  Rwanda	48%	2%	8%	8%		5%	5.69	0.243	0.263
  Madagascar	23%	1%	8%	8%		5%	8.33	0.308	0.320
  South Africa	6%	1%	1%	6%	Y	5%	354.40	0.411	0.529
  Ghana	12%	16%	8%	8%	Y	6%	18.06	0.349	0.487
  Zimbabwe		1%	5%	9%	Y	8%	5.57	0.098	0.416

  	Human Development Colors
  	Very High
  	High
  	Medium
  	Low

  P.S. I corrected the publisher growth based on the percentage population increase in each country.
• 

  jgnat

  Here are all the countries the Witnesses are not (35 countries). At least, there are no recorded Publishers. To be fair, Christians of any stripe have had little headway in any of these countries. The LDS have representation in Vietnam (25), Egypt (30), Jordan (30), Bahrain (76), China (125), and Singapore (680).

  Only one country with a high Muslim population has a corresponding growth in Publishers (Malaysia, 6% growth). Most do not have a Witness representation at all.

  Country	State Religion	% Muslim	Population, Wiipedia
  Afghanistan	Muslim	96%	29,117,000
  Algeria	Muslim	94%	36,300,000
  Bahrain	Muslim	80%	807,000
  Bhutan	Buddhist	1%	695,822
  Brunei Darussalam	Muslim	66%	407,000
  China	Communist	2%	1,341,000,000
  Comoros	None	96%	691,000
  Djibouti	None	95%	879,000
  Egypt	Muslim	98%	80,113,000
  Eritrea	None	35%	5,224,000
  Iran	Muslim	98%	75,225,000
  Iraq	Muslim	97%	31,467,000
  Jordan	Muslim	96%	6,472,000
  Kuwait	Muslim	93%	3,051,000
  Laos	None	0%	6,230,200
  Libya	Muslim	95%	6,546,000
  Maldives	Muslim	96%	317,280
  Mauritania	Muslim	97%	3,366,000
  Monaco	(blank)	0%	33,000
  Morocco	Muslim	100%	32,123,000
  Oman	Muslim	93%	2,694,094
  Palestinian Territories	(blank)	106%	3,935,249
  Quatar	Muslim	64%	1,696,563
  Saudi Arabia	Muslim	92%	27,136,977
  Singapore	None	14%	5,076,700
  Somalia	Muslim	96%	9,359,000
  Syria	None	96%	21,020,000
  Tajikistan	(blank)	83%	7,075,000
  Tunisia	Muslim	97%	10,549,100
  Turkmenistan	(blank)	92%	5,177,000
  United Arab Emirates	Muslim	42%	8,264,070
  Uzbekistan	(blank)	95%	27,794,000
  Viêt Nam	None	0%	86,930,000
  Western Sahara	(blank)	96%	530,000
  Yemen	Muslim	104%	22,492,035
  Grand Total			1,899,794,090
• 

  jgnat

  The world-wide growth rate was reported as 2.5%. Adjusted for the world population growth of 1.1%, we get a corrected growth rate of 1.4%.

  When I compared the % change for various countries, I found the results to be quite variable until I got over 10,000 Publishers per country. Recorded are changes as low as -29% (Kosrae, 23 publishers) and as high as 100% (14 new publishers in the "land" of Rota). I wanted to see trends with other published results, so I eliminated from analysis all the "lands" (129), and countries with fewer than 10,000 publishers.

  

  Three countries make up 21% of all Publishers; Mexico (adjusted 3% growth, second year running), Brazil (adjusted 1% growth 2010), and the USA (adjusted 1% growth 2010). These are the "big boys" running the show.

  There are 70 countries with under 1,000 publishers. I suspect they proportionally take up more administration time than the rest (translation, shipping).
• 

  jgnat

  It appears that Publishers have not made inroads where countries have over 90% dominance in one religion. The "rule" falls apart below 90%, however, as people begin to express their independence.

  Exceptions to this "rule" are Armenia (4% growth), Ecuador (5% growth), and Equatorial New Guinea (10% growth)

  Country	% Catholic	% Muslim	Other Religion	Population growth rate (%)	Corrected Publisher Growth
  Afghanistan	0%	96%		4%
  Algeria	0%	94%		2%
  Cape Verde	93%	0%		2%	0%
  Comoros	0%	96%		2%
  Djibouti	1%	95%		2%
  East Timor	93%	4%
  Egypt		98%
  Greece	1%	3%	98% Greek Orthodox	0%	1%
  Iran		98%		1%
  Iraq	12%	97%		2%
  Italy	97%	0%		0%	1%
  Jordan		96%		3%
  Kuwait	6%	93%		2%
  Libya	1%	95%		2%
  Maldives		96%		2%
  Malta	95%	0%		0%	-3%
  Mauritania	0%	97%		3%
  Moldova	0%	0%	98% Eastern Orthodox	-1%	2%
  Monaco	91%	0%		0%
  Morocco	0%	100%		1%
  Oman		93%		2%
  Palestinian Territories		106%		3%
  Paraguay	92%	0%		2%	0%
  Poland	94%	0%		0%	0%
  Portugal	90%	0%		0%	0%
  Réunion	92%			1%
  Saudi Arabia		92%		2%
  Senegal	6.50%	94%		2%	0%
  Somalia	0.00%	96%		3%
  Syria	42.50%	96%		3%
  Tunisia	0.21%	97%		1%
  Turkmenistan		92%		1%
  Uzbekistan		95%		1%
  Western Sahara	0%	96%		4%
  Yemen	2.72%	100%		3%
• 

  Simon

  Every day, there are many many more people alive that have never heard the 'message' than there were the day before and never will. Their technique of delivering a world-wide message is *that* good (not).

  As a proportion of the worlds population they get smaller every day.
• 

  FlyingHighNow

  As a proportion of the worlds population they get smaller every day.

  Excellent point.
• 

  jgnat

  Here's what Simon is talking about. Peak publishers only make up 1 in a thousand people worldwide. Though the organization may grow in proportion faster (say 2%) than the world population (say 1.2%), the world, by it's sheer size, vastly increases in numbers over the Witnesses. Here it is on a table.

  	World Population	Peak Publishers	Memorial Attendance	Total Unreached (World Pop. Minus Peak Publishers)	Difference Unreached from Previous Year
  2000	6,100,000,000	6,035,564	14,872,086	6,093,964,436
  2001	6,173,200,000	6,117,666	15,374,986	6,167,082,334	73,117,898
  2002	6,214,891,000	6,304,645	15,597,746	6,208,586,355	41,504,021
  2003	6,301,463,000	6,429,351	16,097,622	6,295,033,649	86,447,294
  2004	6,396,000,000	6,513,132	16,760,607	6,389,486,868	94,453,219
  2005	6,477,000,000	6,613,829	16,383,333	6,470,386,171	80,899,303
  2006	6,555,000,000	6,491,775	16,675,113	6,548,508,225	78,122,054
  2007	6,625,000,000	6,691,790	17,672,443	6,618,308,210	69,799,985
  2008	6,705,000,000	7,124,443	17,790,631	6,697,875,557	79,567,347
  2009	6,810,000,000	7,313,173	18,168,323	6,802,686,827	104,811,270

  The number of unreached, no matter what the percentage increase of publishers, will always increase. The Witnesses are losing the "battle" every day.

  Source for world population: www.prb.org

  Source for publisher and memorial attendance: http://www.scribd.com/doc/26855386/Yearbook-Comparisons-1994-2008-Worldwide-Report-1994-Grand

  To stop the hemmoraging, the peak publishers would have to increase four times, or to 76 million adherents. That would keep them at least even with world population growth.

  Now, from a business perspective, the publisher growth is stable and predictable. What you would expect from a cash cow.