The mathematical probability of spontaneous order (no designer/creator)

by Fernando 40 Replies latest watchtower bible

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  Fernando

  There seem to be many prerequisites for life as we know it.

  To name a few: order, function, compatibility, availability, sustainability, intelligence, consciousness, intuition and so on.

  Focusing on only one, namely order.

  What are the chances of order arising spontaneously, by chance, with no creator/designer?

  I have often pondered this and recently came across a mathematical summary of the big picture:

  If every particle in the known physical universe (10^80 particles), participated in one trillion interactions (10^12 interactions) per second, for the entire 30 billion years of the universe's existence (10^18 seconds), then we would by now have covered only 10^110 permutations.

  If you had only 100 components in a container, what are the chances that a blindfolded person could lay them out in order on a table?

  The answer is one chance in 100 factorial, or 100!, which computes to one chance in 10^158, an impossibility.

  What about only 1000 components?

  One chance in 4x10^2567.

  What about only 10,000 components?

  One chance in 3x10^35659.

  What about only 100,000 components?

  I don't know how to interpret the Wolframalpha.com result for 100,000! - although I suspect it may be wrong, and that this is the limit for most calculators.

  How many components does a human body have?

  100 trillion, or 10^14 cells each with 10^14 atoms, which is a total of 10^28 atoms.

  So not only is spontaneous order in a human body mathematically impossible, it seems we cannot even calculate the odds (namely 10^28!).
  

  (Legend and example: 10^2 means 10 to the power 2, which is a 1 with two zeros, namely 100)
  

  How do you see the above?
  
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  Viviane

  I see that the example gets math, chemisty and physics horribly wrong.
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  ihunt

  You state that there are many prerequisites for life. I would disagree with a number of them, namely consciousness, intelligence, and intuition. All of these are components of advanced systems but certainly are not required for life to begin. A number of your other prerequisites can really be boiled down to the idea of self replicating patterns. Their function and sustainability are a product of their order, not independent attributes. This is the selective factor that determines whether or not something would "live", that is, can it function to reproduce itself. Only those random lifeforms whose intrinsic properties allowed for repetition would continue to exist past the brief frame of time when they happened into existence.

  While a fully functional human being may be an impossibly complex system to come across randomly, a short RNA sequence with the ability to self replicate (possibly only a few dozen base pair long) is certainly not.
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  Witness My Fury

  Your score sir!

  
  
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  prologos

  The spontaneity is 'build in' by the deity. It had to happen sooner or later, and we live in the lucky draw jackpot.
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  fukitol

  Define ORDER.

  Do you see order in these images?

  Spiral galaxy:
  

  

  snowflake:

  

  Kaleidoscope image:

  
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  bohm

  Fernando: What your calculations are missing are natural laws. You should ask yourself if for instance the laws governing organic chemistry are irrelevant when considering the origin of life; obviously no scientist would agree, but that is what you are assuming.
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  smiddy

  My understanding is that ORDER and CHAOS co-exist in the UNIVERSE , neither one proves GOD exists or does not exist .However the power of reason , the FACTS as we know them ,leaving faith out of the equation , in my view , leans strongly towards the belief their is no God as defined in any religious book penned by man.

  Christian or otherwise.

  smiddy
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  Ultimate Axiom

  "If you had only 100 components in a container, what are the chances that a blindfolded person could lay them out in order on a table?"

  If we have an infinite universe then not only will a blindfolded person lay them out in order, they will do it an infinite number of times.
  
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  cofty

  How do you see the above?

  It's "not even wrong".