What percentage of JWs have been disfellowshipped?

by JWoods 39 Replies latest watchtower beliefs

• 

  Copernic

  The leaving is far more important than the disfellowshipped, dear slimboyfat. And the calculation is very accurate and close to reality.

  I think it's the only way to know how many people are leaving the WT. And if you believe the figures given by the WT (1%), you believe in Santa Claus.

  By the way, theses figures has been confirmed officialy by the Bethel of France (in 2005) when a Minister of the French gouvernment asked if they were true . They said 'yes, we have something like that" and they used these figures to prove that they are not a sect and they let people to leave the WT freely.

  These calculation has been done by an ex-JW who worked for the French government (MILIVUDES). He's my friend too by the way. So I picked up the method.

  About the death rate : JW are part of the population and like it the JW people assumes to have the same death rate. Without officialy DR, you have to take from the area you live (it's different between England & France, France & Belgium, etc...). There is no reason to not apply statistics for JW when you use it for other religion. Logical, no ?
• 

  Terry

  I have close ties (or did have..) with several JW familes over maybe 50 years.

  None of the kids remain. They go through disfellowshipping/reinstatement more than once before they fade.

  The family that recruited me had 4 kids and only one of them remains a JW.

  My best friend (as a JW) has 5 kids who all are either faded or DF'd.

  Smart people fade. Surprised people are D'F'd.

  My own gut estimate would be that more than HALF of the people who regularly attend the Kingdom Hall end up leaving (one way or another.)

  It destroys your life in too many signficant ways.

  Most JW's who stay lead a double life. They find a way to sail across the bumpy seas of private mutiny and public piety.

  In short, they are liars and hypocrites struggling to survive in a pocket of sanity (even if privately.)

  For what it is worth, those who defend JW's the strongest are usually the weakest!

  By defending they are protecting the "dream" and the illusion lest they see it too clearly for what it is and have no "hope" left!
• 

  agonus

  And then there are some (though I wouldn't say they're the majority by any means) who actually still believe it's The Truth TM . Some believe it because their logic somehow permits it and some (probably most) believe because they need to.
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  letsslatejws

  Wow thats a lot disfellowshipped ! Wonder what the figure is for the faded, as im 1 of my immediate family of 6 that have all ditched the so called Truth last year. ~As well as us Ive managed to take down a few other JWs with me too (another family of 5 plus another family of 6). Wow my efforts to get those out of the organisation is better than it was getting them in !!!!

  I want a medal :)

  Anyone got actual figures on us sleepers / faders ??? There has to be more of us that have escaped & slipped under the radar :0
• 

  steve2

  Stop the stupid guess work people. Here's how to estimate the percentage who were ever baptized who are no longer active:

  1) Calculate the number of people baptized over successive decades

  2) Subtract 1% to 2% mortality rate each year.

  3) The remaining figure will be the number who were baptized and "should" still be active JWs.

  4) Subtract from this remaining figure of baptized members the peak number of JWs from the latest service year (2009).

  The number now remaining will be those who have become inactive (the old JW word was "irregular" I think) or faded or disfellowshipped or all three!
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  XPeterX

  40.000-50.000 disfellowships every year of which only 1/3 get reinstated.
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  jwfacts

  In order for the question to make sense you need to give it a frame of reference. As shown above, if the question is what percentage per year, then the Watchtower shows it is slightly over 1%.

  The question seems however to be examining the % over a longer period of time. If we take the 30 year period from 1980 to 2009 then the figure is more meaningful. The total number of people baptised since 1980 plus the average publisher figure for 1980 comes to 9,972,561. Assuming 1% of the average publisher figure are disfellowshipped each year, the total disfellowshipped since 1980 is 1,398,704. The percentage of JW's disfellowshipped over the last 30 years is therefore 14%.

  This figure is a fairly good estimate because although 1% understates the number disfellowshipped each year, that is offset by the fact that some JWs get disfellowshipped more than once.
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  jwfacts

  Since only about 1/3 of people disfellowshipped end up getting reinstated, as a very rough figure about 5% of the people in the congregation will have been disfellowshipped and reinstated.
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  Terry

  It would not be an exaggeration to claim that there are as many EX-Jw's for every current active JW.

  Many of these people that I run into from time to time have not expanded their thinking beyond where it was when they left the local Kingdom Hall (for whatever reasons).

  They are dead intellectually and stuck in the La Brea Tar pits of JW theology.

  The Watchtower kills the active curiousity of its members (and ex-members) by convincing them that Absolute Truth (Watchtower style) makes further investigations irrelevent and unnecessary!

  Once your curiousity dies and your skepticism is confined to counter-proof and factual falsification your goose is cooked!

  That is why the EX-JW community is so non-threatening and passive. They are whipped! Ineffectual. Brooding. Lost souls.

  Many of them turn up here on the Discussion Boards with Questions from time to time such as "What if it REALLY IS the TRUTH?"

  They are scared and blind and reactionary unless an intervention occurs.

  It can happen. Not often.

  You have to challenge their thinking and make them do RESEARCH to jumpstart their brain again!

  The DISFELLOWSHIPPED NUMBERS throughout the world are a mighty army if their consciousness can be restored!!

  That, in my opinion, is what we should be concentrating on here!!
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  steve2

  jwfacts, no where in your generous calculations did you explicitly include a percentage for annual death rates. Depending on who you reference, death rates round the world range from 1% to 2%. This makes a significant difference to your still way-too-high figures.