silentstone, The only figures from jwfacts are the total publishers. I applied the ballpark 1% estimate to that for the estimated numbers disfellowshipped (3rd column).
steve2, I think the phrase is, "there are lies, damn lies, and statistics". I was suprised at the high number myself. However, the 1% figure comes from a number of different sources. In addition to the statement above, jwfacts also reports a few others:
This is based on Watchtower 1992 July 1 p.19 "In recent years disfellowshippings worldwide have been approximately 1 percent of publishers."
Watchtower 1986 January 1 p.13 stated, ?It is to be noted, also, that during the past year, 36,638 individuals had to be disfellowshipped from the Christian congregation? In 1985 average publishers were 2,865,183, so 36,638 represented 1.28%.
Watchtower 1987 September 15 p.13 ?Unfortunately, during the 1986 service year, 37,426 had to be disfellowshipped from the Christian congregation?? Of the 3,063,289 publishers this represented 1.22%
In regards to the cumulative figures over decades, the 1% amount is applied to the number of publishers per year and is not derived from the previous years calculation. The main question is how accurate the 1% figure over the course of each year. If we went with 0.5% disfellowshipping rate instead, that would still come to about 800,000 people total.
The jwfacts page takes a different approach and looks at the difference between the numer baptized and the increase in publishers. Using that method (and assuming a death rate of 0.85%) there are about 1,000,000 unaccounted for from 1996 to 2005. That's a more accurate measure of NET movement (including reinstatements).
Each of us would know from our current and/or previous congregations that relatively few were disfellowshipped.
Applying the 19% figure to a congregation that currently has 100 publishers would mean that 1 person would have to get DF'd ever 2.6 years over the past 50 years (not taking into account death rate) in that congregation.
