# A riddle my brother gave me today

by bohm 101 Replies latest jw friends

• ##### John Doe
In my world probability is a sononymous with belief.

Why don't we see what the dictionary has to say.

Main Entry: prob·a·bil·i·ty
Pronunciation: \?prä-b?-'bi-l?-te\
Function: noun
Inflected Form(s): pluralprob·a·bil·i·ties
Date: 15th century

1: the quality or state of being probable
2: something (as an event or circumstance) that is probable
3 a (1): the ratio of the number of outcomes in an exhaustive set of equally likely outcomes that produce a given event to the total number of possible outcomes (2): the chance that a given event will occur b: a branch of mathematics concerned with the study of probabilities
4: a logical relation between statements such that evidence confirming one confirms the other to some degree

3 (a) leaves little room for "belief."

• ##### bohm

What is the probability the next flight to new york will fall down over the atlantic?

There are two outcomes as i see it: It fall down, or it does not.

So how do i go from those to the probability? I assume you dont want to tell me its 1/2.

• ##### bohm

Well, i asked you earlier to give a definition without copy-pasting. Apparently that was not a problem for you back then, but here we go...

So tell me your definition and apply it to the problem with the 3 kids, as well as the plane over the atlantic.

• ##### John Doe

What is the probability the next flight to new york will fall down over the atlantic?
There are two outcomes as i see it: It fall down, or it does not.
So how do i go from those to the probability? I assume you dont want to tell me its 1/2.

Now you're changing the problem. Note the dicitonary definition involving "equally likely." Or, is the dictionary wrong too?

• ##### John Doe
Well, i asked you earlier to give a definition without copy-pasting. Apparently that was not a problem for you back then, but here we go...

And I did. Note that 3(a)(1) is not substantially different from the definition I gave.

• ##### bohm

John Doe: No i am not changing the problem, i ask you for a deifnition of probability and you copy paste 4 definitions from a dictionary, without saying which you think is right.

So your saying its not possible to define the probability of events which are NOT equally likely? Is that how i should understand you? Come on, what is your definition!

• ##### bohm

so IS 3.1(a) your definition? (now we are getting somewhere)

• ##### Luo bou to

A factor that is relevant and that needs to be considered is when they had sex or Rather how often. Male sperm die quickly while female sperm can live up to 3 days. So if intercourse occurs the day the woman becomes fertile there is a higher probability that she will conceive a boy ' It is not the same as tossing a coin

• ##### John Doe
So your saying its not possible to define the probability of events which are NOT equally likely?

No. I did not say that. However, the entire discussion has dealt with a presupposition that we are dealing with things that have equal chances of happening. That is statistics "in it's most basic form." Not to be terse, but I am not going to use my remaining post count in this pointless exchange. After all, this is becoming too much like a "math class" and I do want to have a life.

• ##### bohm

CHALLENGE FOR JOHN DOE