A riddle my brother gave me today

by bohm 101 Replies latest jw friends

  • John Doe
    John Doe
    Side note for changeling: You are right, ff one assume a given couple generate boys with a probability a, the more boys they have (compared to girls) the higher our estimate of a will be, and we will estimate the probability their next children is a boy to be higher. a does not increase exponentially, though.

    That is not correct.

  • Albert Einstein
    Albert Einstein

    BTW Bohm, my wife have made tremendous progress! Started reading books from other religions and admits, they are better then from JW...!

    I hope your family situation is getting better as well...


  • snowbird


    Factoring in the possibility of a girl?


  • bohm

    JD: "For background, I was a math major with an A grade in advanced statistics, so I do know a little about the subject." - it is dangerous to make this kind of statements! Consider the example again: A man has 20 children. He tells you 19 are boys. What is the probability the last one of them is a boy to?. I think i have an answer - i just think its interesting how difficult it can be to combine information correctly. Think about trials and our resident JW appolegists.

  • bohm

    JD - changeling is only wrong if one assume that no couples has more likelihood to have boys than girls. I am not a biologist, but i believe that is wrong.

    Nevertheless - this is completely offtopic.For the riddle, just assume the women is question give birth to boys with probability 1/2 irregardless of her history.

    Snowbird - best numerical estimate so far! i would say 1/3 was the obvious answer. Nevertheless it is not the right answer.

    Albert - Well congratulations! I actually thought how it was with you and your wife last week when i read a "motivational" story in the WT!.
    An open mind is the greatest danger to a cult - irregardless of what she choose, i believe she will have a far greater understanding for why you have choosen otherwise.

  • Incognito

    Bohm asked:

    A man has 2 children. He tells you one is a boy born on a tuesday. What is the probability the other is a boy to?

    The answer is zero probability (less than half).

    The riddle states ONE is a boy, therefore the other child is a girl. The day of the week is irrelevant and stated only to throw you off.

    What do I win??

  • bohm

    incognito - have a glass of beer you smartass :-). I dont mean "one" in the exclusive sence ofcourse - i hope i didnt confuse anyone.

  • snowbird



  • MissingLink

    I'll have a stab at it. If there's a 1 in 1000 chance the other child is a hermaphrodite, then the chance that it is a boy is 49.95%

  • bohm

    ML: No hermofrodites and no cheating at all. its not a trick question.

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