# A riddle my brother gave me today

by bohm 101 Replies latest jw friends

• ##### John Doe
Side note for changeling: You are right, ff one assume a given couple generate boys with a probability a, the more boys they have (compared to girls) the higher our estimate of a will be, and we will estimate the probability their next children is a boy to be higher. a does not increase exponentially, though.

That is not correct.

• ##### Albert Einstein

BTW Bohm, my wife have made tremendous progress! Started reading books from other religions and admits, they are better then from JW...!

I hope your family situation is getting better as well...

Albert

• ##### snowbird

1/3?

Factoring in the possibility of a girl?

Syl

• ##### bohm

JD: "For background, I was a math major with an A grade in advanced statistics, so I do know a little about the subject." - it is dangerous to make this kind of statements! Consider the example again: A man has 20 children. He tells you 19 are boys. What is the probability the last one of them is a boy to?. I think i have an answer - i just think its interesting how difficult it can be to combine information correctly. Think about trials and our resident JW appolegists.

• ##### bohm

JD - changeling is only wrong if one assume that no couples has more likelihood to have boys than girls. I am not a biologist, but i believe that is wrong.

Nevertheless - this is completely offtopic.For the riddle, just assume the women is question give birth to boys with probability 1/2 irregardless of her history.

Snowbird - best numerical estimate so far! i would say 1/3 was the obvious answer. Nevertheless it is not the right answer.

Albert - Well congratulations! I actually thought how it was with you and your wife last week when i read a "motivational" story in the WT!.
An open mind is the greatest danger to a cult - irregardless of what she choose, i believe she will have a far greater understanding for why you have choosen otherwise.

• ##### Incognito

A man has 2 children. He tells you one is a boy born on a tuesday. What is the probability the other is a boy to?

The answer is zero probability (less than half).

The riddle states ONE is a boy, therefore the other child is a girl. The day of the week is irrelevant and stated only to throw you off.

What do I win??

• ##### bohm

incognito - have a glass of beer you smartass :-). I dont mean "one" in the exclusive sence ofcourse - i hope i didnt confuse anyone.

Incognito!

Syl