by bohm 101 Replies latest jw friends
Side note for changeling: You are right, ff one assume a given couple generate boys with a probability a, the more boys they have (compared to girls) the higher our estimate of a will be, and we will estimate the probability their next children is a boy to be higher. a does not increase exponentially, though.
That is not correct.
BTW Bohm, my wife have made tremendous progress! Started reading books from other religions and admits, they are better then from JW...!
I hope your family situation is getting better as well...
Albert
1/3?
Factoring in the possibility of a girl?
Syl
JD: "For background, I was a math major with an A grade in advanced statistics, so I do know a little about the subject." - it is dangerous to make this kind of statements! Consider the example again: A man has 20 children. He tells you 19 are boys. What is the probability the last one of them is a boy to?. I think i have an answer - i just think its interesting how difficult it can be to combine information correctly. Think about trials and our resident JW appolegists.
JD - changeling is only wrong if one assume that no couples has more likelihood to have boys than girls. I am not a biologist, but i believe that is wrong.
Nevertheless - this is completely offtopic.For the riddle, just assume the women is question give birth to boys with probability 1/2 irregardless of her history.
Snowbird - best numerical estimate so far! i would say 1/3 was the obvious answer. Nevertheless it is not the right answer.
Albert - Well congratulations! I actually thought how it was with you and your wife last week when i read a "motivational" story in the WT!.
An open mind is the greatest danger to a cult - irregardless of what she choose, i believe she will have a far greater understanding for why you have choosen otherwise.
Bohm asked:
A man has 2 children. He tells you one is a boy born on a tuesday. What is the probability the other is a boy to?
The answer is zero probability (less than half).
The riddle states ONE is a boy, therefore the other child is a girl. The day of the week is irrelevant and stated only to throw you off.
What do I win??
incognito - have a glass of beer you smartass :-). I dont mean "one" in the exclusive sence ofcourse - i hope i didnt confuse anyone.
Incognito!
Syl
I'll have a stab at it. If there's a 1 in 1000 chance the other child is a hermaphrodite, then the chance that it is a boy is 49.95%
ML: No hermofrodites and no cheating at all. its not a trick question.
