by bohm 101 Replies latest jw friends
John Doe, yes i have. You tell me you have taken several cources on probability and have a major in math. I think its quite a fair question to ask you how you define the probability of an event, in particular when you are telling me i get it wrong.
I ask you and you answer with an example, not a definition. A mathematician should know the difference.
Try to take the problem serious. You might learn something.
A person who has any training in statistics should be able to formulate an imprecise problem and work on it from there.
Were you or were you not asking for an example? I've given a rigorous and thorough defintion of probability.
John, whats frustrating for me is that i am allmost certain you get it wrong. I am allmost certain you have completed the statistics courses, and you are correcting me and slapping me over the head but you are completely and utterly wrong. But you are formulating yourself in such an imprecise manner, perhaps because you have never considered the need for a strict definition and know you are on shaky ground, that i cannot point out your errors because what you write is nonsensial.
THATS where we are right now. You began to pick nits, now im calling you out.
John, no you have not. You have told me it is "the ratio of occurances to non-occurances". Thats not a definiton, at least not one that can be applied imediately to a future event, since you have not told me how these occurances and non-occurances relate to your enumeration of possible outcomes.
YOU began this by telling me probability has nothing to do with belief. Now im calling you to account on that statement.
UPDATE and while we are at it, the statement you quote me to has to do with the example of the couple who has had 3 kids, all boys, and you are asked what the probability their next kid will be a boy is. You answered by an example of a fair coin, which PER DEFINITION has probability 1/2.
In essense i asked you a question, then you answer a completely other question where your answer is true by definition. I doubt that would have worked for you in school...
I am allmost certain you have completed the statistics courses, and you are correcting me and slapping me over the head but you are completely and utterly wrong.
Did you not read where I conceded that I was incorrect in my initial analysis? What do you want, a pint of blood? Has there been any disagreement as to what a probability is? I get the strong impression that you are simply yanking my chain, and frankly, I grow weary of it.
John, no you have not. You have told me it is "the ratio of occurances to non-occurances".
You're quoting only part of the definition I gave. For what purpose do you take a sentence out of context?
YOU began this by telling me probability has nothing to do with belief. Now im calling you to account on that statement.
That is correct. I stand by that statement.
you wrote "Has there been any disagreement as to what a probability is? "
But earlier you wrote: ""Belief" has nothing to do with the problem as worded--it is strictly one of statistics. Probability is probability."
In my world probability is a sononymous with belief. You have another definition, i asked you what it is.
No i dont care you didnt get the answer right - im very impressed StAnn did it, but i do not judge you for your ability to answer such a question since it IS a riddle and i myself only got it right because i assumed the question had to be non-obvious and was very carefull. What i am calling you out on has all to do with you picking nits and telling me i was wrong earlier.
Ummmm.........yeah........Ummmmm.
John wrote: you're quoting only part of the definition I gave. For what purpose do you take a sentence out of context?
okay here the full sentence is:
A probability is nothing more than the ratio of an occurence to non occurence. This is determined solely by the enumeration of possible outcomes
I understand you to mean the occurences and non-occurences is connected to the enumeration, but i have repeatly asked you how that is, and how a probability (if not in a subjective manner) relate to a future event.
