Suppose I have a bunch of parts for a watch. I put them in a tumbler, and shake them. The chances of getting a working watch on the first try is almost zero. Almost being the key word. The second try is also a poor bet. But, if I have unlimited attempts, eventually it will hit. And I will have a perfectly working watch.
Hm...
Even though we may be on the same "side" here, I don't think this is a fair analogy.
In this case you are drawing, before hand, a very specific target: A working watch.
We all agree that in the universe is a complex place, but we are highly prejudiced
towards the idea that it "should" or it "needs" to be complex in the way we are used
to. Just because things turned out this way doesn't mean this is the only "interesting"
and "viable" way things could have turned out. We have no way to imagine what
complexity might be like in a different universe, and if there is one they can't imagine
ours.
Also, watch parts in a tumbler do not "tend" to interact in much of an interesting way.
They do not tend to screw themselves together, or align themselves into interacting
groups.
Chemicals, however, DO tend to interact and combine with each other in interesting
ways, especially when under extreme heat and pressure as can be found in the death
of a star.
And each step of interaction "tends" to build on it's own foundations, untill you get
chemical structures reproducing copies of themselves (life), then natural selection kicks
in, and things really get rolling on the "interesting" train.
And Natural Selection is the OPPOSITE of chance. It is way of things being that activly
SAVES that which is stable and useful (though without forsight)
Of course you can ask why things are such a way that chemicals interact in interesting
ways with each other, but that is pushing the question back a very significant step.
And once again, we have no idea how "else" an interesting universe and chemical laws
could look like.
[inkling]