When I departed the organization in early 2006, I was giving some serious thought as to why Jehovah’s Witnesses were going through a period of heightened expectation of Armageddon. The District Convention theme for 2006 was "Deliverance At Hand", and it was announced by the Governing Body that a stinging message would be carried out against "false religion" in the Fall through a tract campaign.
Certainly throughout the organization’s history, convention talks and Watchtower publications have always used manipulative tactics in urging a sense of urgency; even in times of relative peace. JWs always repeat the mantra that the end is "just around the corner". But as I began to look at the organization’s history, I began to notice that the organization goes through specific cycles of especially heightened expectations during certain periods.
Roughly every 30 years, the organization and its members seem to go through a phase of heightened expectation – an almost hysteria as to the nearness of the Great Tribulation. I have noticed that these cycles typically coincide with various geo-political cycles, world conditions, and events. Since the Jehovah’s Witnesses originally began as an American religion, and the Governing Body resides in the United States, it seems that the GB’s view of current events as they relate to Armageddon are influenced more by the events that either affect or involve the United States (as I will elaborate on later). These conditions have caused Watchtower leaders to have knee-jerk reactions whereby they proclaim that this system is on the brink of Armageddon. Here are some of my observations regarding these 30-year cycles among Jehovah’s Witnesses:
Approx. 1910 to 1918
Charles Taze Russell and the Watchtower were proclaiming that the year 1914 would usher in the end of this system of things. In the 1910’s, political conditions in Europe continued to worsen. Tensions were mounting, and it seemed as if the pressure cooker would blow any day. In 1914, an assassination led to one declaration of war after the other, including the eventual U.S. involvement. The Great World War was soon underway. Additional statements by Russell thereafter confirmed that they were now entering the Great Tribulation and that it was just a matter of time before the system of things was destroyed. Looking at the current world conditions, how could anyone deny that this was the end - so reasoned the Bible Students. When the end did not come in 1914, Rutherford ( after Russell’s death ) put forward a new date of 1918. Surely the end of Christendom would come by 1918, would it not? The Bible Students eagerly clung to their Watchtowers; and held onto to their hats and bonnets. The end was near!
Well, not exactly. After World War I ended, there were a lot of befuddled Bible Students noticing that the worldly governments and the churches were still alive and well. They also noticed some empty chairs at their Pilgrim meetings. But, later world events would demonstrate that the end is near.
1941 to 1945
Roughly 30 years later, the United States and much of the world was struggling through the final years of the great depression when the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor in 1941. The event shook the country; galvanized the American public into entering the war, and provided plenty of fodder for Judge Rutherford’s end-times speeches. In that same year, Rutherford had spoken at conventions declaring that the end of this system was "months away". He also admonished JWs not to get married or have children. The severe persecution that followed in the U.S. only confirmed to JWs that Armageddon was right around the corner. World War II saw the largest war casualties in history. The world was also horrified by the Nazi Holocaust of the Jews. Then, for the first time ever, the "King of the South" used the atomic bomb.
With all of this carnage happening in less than a decade, all evidence pointed to the end of this system of things. How could anyone deny this evidence - so reasoned Jehovah’s Witnesses. How could anyone think that the system of things could go on much longer? Surely, the end must be near!
Sorry, not yet. As World War II came to a close, as American GIs returned home, and Japan began to rebuild its country; there were many perplexed JWs wondering why religion had not been destroyed yet. Why was the Vatican still in operation? Why hadn’t the Pope’s eyes rotten out as Isaiah said they would? What was going on here? Some more empty seats at the meetings were probably noticeable.
1966 to 1975
Approximately 30 years later, Jehovah’s Witnesses now actually had a date to look forward to! They looked to the year 1975 with heightened expectation. And why shouldn’t they? The Society and its "oracle" Fred Franz had just published a new book ( Life Everlasting In Freedom of the Sons of God ) explaining the prophetic significance of the year 1975. This, coupled with the fact that the 1960’s had brought one of the greatest periods of social upheaval in U.S. history, led many Witnesses to put stock in the 1975 date. World conditions certainly supported such a view.
The U.S. was in the height of the Cold War with the "King of the North". There had been the assassinations of JFK, Martin Luther King, and Robert Kennedy. The 1960’s saw large-scale racial persecution in the South, and large riots in Los Angeles , Detroit , and Chicago . The Society published several grandiose articles proclaiming that the end of this system was only a few years away. Furthermore, the U.S. was bogged down in an unpopular war in Vietnam under an unpopular president. The American counter-culture movement was reshaping many American values. In 1971, the Watchtower Society organizes a tract campaign against false religion.
Then, there was the oil embargo and gas shortages. Watergate soon emerged, and Richard Nixon became the first president in U.S. history to resign. During this time, the Society continued to publish Watchtower and Kingdom Ministry articles stating that the Great Tribulation was going to break out very shortly. To the average JW, the writing was on the wall; so to speak. Who could deny the undeniable evidence that this system was on its last legs? Most assuredly, the end was near!
Well, not quite. As JWs turned the pages of their calendars to January 1, 1976; major cognitive dissonance began to set in for many of them when the Watchtower leadership blamed rank and file members for hyping 1975. The 1975 balloon that had been filled with so much speculative Watchtower hot air, was now totally deflated. Many disillusioned JWs had enough, and voted with their feet. To this day, the organization still criticizes those who left the organization; while portraying itself as a persecuted and unappreciated prophet.
2001 to Present
Now, fast forward again; approximately 30 years. 9/11 – the worst attack on U.S. soil shook the entire world. The U.S. then invaded Afghanistan , then Iraq . Terrorist bombings rocked Madrid, London, and Bali; just to name a few. The U.S. soon thereafter, became bogged down in an unpopular war under an unpopular president. Later, Hurricane Katrina - the largest natural disaster in U.S. history destroys much of New Orleans. Much like 1971, the Society announces in 2006 that it will deliver a stinging message to false religion around the earth through a tract campaign. The convention theme of "Deliverance At Hand" is chosen. Many JWs speculated that the false religion tract was going to spark world-wide persecution upon them. Once again, JWs were chirping to one another that the end is "oh, so close". As it turned out, the earth-shattering tract campaign received little more than a collective, world-wide yawn.
2034
There is now considerable evidence that this 30 year cycle will once again repeat itself approaching the year 2034. This is when 120 years will have passed since 1914. Genesis states that 120 years warning was given to Noah prior to the deluge. In Matthew chapter 24 verses 37 – 39, Jesus is recorded as saying that the end of the system of things would be "just as the days of Noah". There is evidence that the 2034 date is gaining traction among various JWs, as it is a date of "great prophetic significance". Is any of this beginning to look familiar?
It is amazing that the vast majority are either unable or unwilling to see this cyclical pattern. When we consider the woeful history of Watchtower predictions, proclamations, and boastful claims about being Jehovah’s exclusive channel of communication, there are several old phrases that come to my mind:
The more things change, the more they remain the same. Those that do not remember history are doomed to repeat it. Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice shame on me. And, there is a sucker born every minute.
It has been said that respect and trust are attributes that must be EARNED, not DEMANDED. This principle was even written about numerous times by the Apostle Paul when he warned about giving unquestioning compliance to men who claimed to be teachers and elders. It is amazing that an organization ( more specifically, its leadership ) could demand the unwavering obedience, the unquestioning compliance, the total trust, and the continuous respect from millions of people in light of its 100% failure rate at predictions. It is also amazing in light of the fact that it labels any members who question their authority or wisdom as ones who are guilty of a "prideful spirit", or who are "fault-finders". The motto of such an arrangement is: don’t think – just follow. Don’t ask questions – just comply. Trust and respect does not have to be earned, but can merely be demanded from the flock by nature of the Governing Body’s special relationship to God.
An emotional investment in the end of the world and those who sell it, is nothing new or novel. The drumbeat of "the end is near" has been shouted and proclaimed by countless churches, groups, followings, and pseudo-spiritualists - galore. These kinds of salvation merchants have never had a shortage of eager customers willing to follow them in their campaigns, revivals, and hysterics. Much like the compulsive gambler who is unable to step away from the slot machine on the hopes of the "big pay out", those who have an emotional investment in the apocalypse will keep "paying out" with their time and energy.
Continuing forward with Joseph Rutherford’s legacy, the Watchtower Society continues to repeat the same boastful talks and emotionally manipulative Watchtower articles with great rhetorical thunder claps. The Governing Body seeks to keep the rank and file busy as productive and compliant literature distributors with their never-ending Armageddon slogans. The continuous merry-go-round of reactionary demagoguery would be enough to make Chicken Little quite proud - and perhaps enough to move him to accept a Bible study.
And so, the saga continues. The cycle is repeated again and again with an almost sickening predictability. Not even Nightmare On Elm Street produced this many cheesy sequels.