Astonishing Publisher Peak in Britain for August 2006

by slimboyfat 72 Replies latest watchtower bible

• 

  slimboyfat

  Well I just got the new Kingdom Ministry for December and it has the publisher peak for August: 129,482!

  That is quite an amazing total when you compare it to the trend of recent years:

  1995 - 132,440

  1996 - 132,516

  1997 - 129,288

  1998 - 131,981

  1999 - 126,535

  2000 - 126,297

  2001 - 124,828

  2002 - 125,398

  2003 - 125,797

  2004 - 125,546

  2005 - 127,206

  2006 - 129,482

  I wish I could produce a graph, but you get the picture - there has been a dramatic increase in the publisher peak number this year compared with the recent downward trend after the 1995 "generation" change and subsequent stagnation. I wonder what is causing it? It coincides with a slight increase in the worldwide growth in average publishers as well, as reported by another poster. Does this mean the Witnesses are making a comeback? Probably not in as much as there will likely be no return to the heady increases of the 1980s and early 1990s. But it does show that those who have been expecting sustained and significant decreases in the Witness figures in years to come may well be disappointed.

  Yet although the new publisher peak is a very healthy figure for the Witnesses this year, a couple of things keep it in perspective:

  1. The peak figure is after all the more erratic of the two measures - it will be interesting to see what the increase in average publishers is.

  2. Even this substantial increase over recent years does not bring the Witness total in Britain back up to their all time peak of 132,000 in the mid 1990s.

  Slim
• 

  Shazard

  The fall and rise shows the longitude of member memory. It is how long ones remember fallen prophecies and when they are forgot or new members introduced which are not aware of the previous lights, they start increase until next big WT failure. What will be next and when? I suppose if not earlier, then end of year 2014 will be big fall for them.
• 

  Zico

  I reckon it's all the Polish that have come into the country... Seriously, the Polish increase in our Congregation is very quick, at least compared to the English, and I know of many Congregations that are the same, they've been a real boost to loads of areas.
• 

  Leolaia

  The chart doesn't look the same way to me. It looks like the lowest ebb was in 2001 and the numbers have slowly bounded back since. The gain over 2005 is only about 500 publishers more than the gain of 2005 over 2004.
• 

  Pubsinger

  Peak publisher figures are a nonsense anyway.

  Only average publisher figures are of any use statistically.

  If a publisher forgets to put a report in one month ( and loads do) they are counted as two people when they submit two reports the following month.

  So peak publisher figures are worth diddly squat.

  They definitely do not show the "peak" number of individual publishers.
• 

  Clam

  I reckon it's a negligible increase. 2276 in a population of 60 million. I'm with Zico. I reckon it's down to Eastern Europeans. We've had 600,000 Poles come into the country since May 2004. My family's Congo must have about 20 odd. I've no idea how many Czechs, Latvians, Lithiuanians etc have come over.

  Thanks for providing those figures Slimboyfat. I love meomorizing this stuff and popping it into conversations with my sister, who convinces herself that the Dubs are increasing like flies.

  Clam
• 

  Pubsinger

  Out of interest, what is the average publisher figure for the UK?
• 

  slimboyfat

  Don't have the average figure yet - that will come in Feb 1st WT which gets delivered next week.

  However, working out from the KMs over the past year I think it is quite likely that the average increase with be between 1 and 2%. If it is nearer 2% I can imagine that would be quite a boost to Witnesses who place a lot of stock in the rising numbers. Even a 1% increase will have a psychologial impact I imagine.

  Also, from the KM figures it is quite clear that the Bible Study figures have increased substantially in Britain as well - perhaps by around 4%.

  Slim
• 

  R6Laser

  If a publisher forgets to put a report in one month ( and loads do) they are counted as two people when they submit two reports the following month.

  Where do you get this information?

  Reason I ask is because when I was still in, I was in charge of things like this. I was also in charge of the accounting. I must say that your statement is false, at least false in the way it was done when I was in.
• 

  slimboyfat

  Pubsinger is right about some publishers being counted twice if they forget to hand in a report the previous month - that is how it works.

  However, it is not as significant a point as he may think for a few reasons:

  1. These things average themselves out - i.e. while some put two reports in any given month, others forget to hand one in at all that month and hand two in the next, and so on and so on. The net effect is they cancel each other out.

  2. We are comparing like with like: There is no reason to think that publishers were any more forgetful in July 2005 than in July 2006. So comparisons of the two peaks in August 2005 and 2006 are valid.

  3. Whatever way you explain the increase, it is an increase nonetheless - better than a decrease, for example.

  Slim