Prediction of large drop in JW numbers in 2014

by VM44 40 Replies latest watchtower beliefs

  • VM44

    I am going to make the prediction, here and now in mid 2006, that there will be a significant drop in the number of Jehovah's Witnesses in the year 2014, the one hundredth anniversary of 1914.

    The only way this drop in numbers might be avoided is if The Watchtower Society can think up some way to stir up the rank and file and get them motivated to do more, like they did with the 1975 fiasco.

    I doubt very much that the Watchtower magazine is going to proclaim loudly in the year 2014 anything about the "generation of 1914" not passing away.


  • vomit

    When I was a child, I though that if I can pretend to be a JW long enough, I can excape from it because the generation should be almost 100% dead by then. So I tried and I waited, but I couldnt last, so I left about 6 years ago. for shame on me, I am sure many people my age and younger are looking to that date as an ideal breakaway point.

    Unfortunatly as the generation is pretty much ignored these days, older ones have forgoton it and newly babtised have no idea of it.

  • steve2

    Two responses to this interesting prediction:

    1) The figures show that the drop has already started, so I'd say 2014 won't add that much to the predicted decline. Look at the plateauing and decline of JWs in the Scandanavian countries, for example. Growth stagnation is also evident in most Western countries and it's only 2006...

    On the other hand...

    2) Never underestimate the capacity of end-times religions to rejuvenate themselves. No doubt during the fiasco that accompanied Charles Russell's death on 1916, many people would have predicted the Bible Students would soon "squabble" themselves to death. Who could have ever imagined that the long-in-the-tooth "Russelites" would have re-invented themselves as Jehovah's Witnesses?

  • aniron

    One of the things is that many of the "new " JW's , those that have joined in last few years. Don't seem to know anything about 1914 and/or what it means to the WT. You start talking about 1914 /1919 period and you get blank looks. Mind you if they are going to be studying the "Revelation" book again as some have said then that should inform them.

    I suppose if they get to 2014 , then could say "Well Jesus never choose the WT until 1919" that would give them another 5 years at least. Then maybe 2031... "We didn't become Jehovah's Witnesses until 1931"

  • roybatty

    The drop has already happened. Like someone else posted, if it weren't for the Spanish speaking congregations in the U.S. and their growth, there would have been a significant drop.

    The question is, how long can the WT exploit a new group of people in the U.S.? With all the information on the internet, I don't think very long.

  • Honesty

    The Jehovah's Witness cult will survive and thrive because Watchtower publications can only be properly understood when a deeply-dipped Dub is present to explain away all the errors and inconsistencies.

  • moomanchu

    The large increase with the Latinos could be a double edge sword.

    The large increase with latinos is because of the close family relationship latinos have.

    Maybe the large decrease will be for the same reason.

  • blondie

    The WTS always CYAs:

    *** w69 4/1 p. 214 Why Is Your Ministry Successful? ***
    We will continue to work for and confidently look to Jehovah for increase, but, as we approach the end, we will not be discouraged if the increase becomes slower in some parts of the world than in others. In fact, we are forewarned that the time will come when none will want to listen to Jehovah’s Christian witnesses.

  • greendawn

    It sounds artificial 2014 just because it is a round number exactly 100 years away from 1914, the generation has already passed away as the WTS admitted back in 1995 so I think the damage has already been done though they try to control it by claiming, without a rational basis after 1995, that the end is indeed very near.

    With the new definition of a generation it could be 200 or 300 years away.

  • GermanXJW

    2014 is only twenty years away from 2034.

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