Projected growth of the Watchtower Society

Elsewhere

I took the growth figures from 1945 through 2005 and use the past growth rates to predict the future rates and this is what I got...

By 2010 the growth rate will reach 0 and after that the Average Number of Publishers will start to go down. Their Average Number of Publishers should stop rising at about 6.6 million members and by 2025 they should be back to 5 million. It took them 122 years to reach 5 million publishers and it will only take 10 years to go back to 5 million publishers after they peak out at 6.6 million in 2010.

Year Average Publishers Percent Change

1945 "127,478"

1946 "158,034" 19.34%

1947 "181,071" 12.72%

1948 "230,532" 21.46%

1949 "279,421" 17.50%

1950 "328,572" 14.96%

1951 "384,694" 14.59%

1952 "426,704" 9.85%

1953 "468,106" 8.84%

1954 "525,924" 10.99%

1955 "570,694" 7.84%

1956 "591,556" 3.53%

1957 "653,273" 9.45%

1958 "717,088" 8.90%

1959 "803,482" 10.75%

1960 "851,378" 5.63%

1961 "884,587" 3.75%

1962 "920,920" 3.95%

1963 "956,648" 3.73%

1964 "1,001,870" 4.51%

1965 "1,034,268" 3.13%

1966 "1,058,675" 2.31%

1967 "1,094,280" 3.25%

1968 "1,155,826" 5.32%

1969 "1,256,784" 8.03%

1970 "1,384,782" 9.24%

1971 "1,510,245" 8.31%

1972 "1,596,442" 5.40%

1973 "1,656,673" 3.64%

1974 "1,880,713" 11.91%

1975 "2,062,449" 8.81%

1976 "2,138,537" 3.56%

1977 "2,117,194" -1.01%

1978 "2,086,698" -1.46%

1979 "2,097,070" 0.49%

1980 "2,175,404" 3.60%

1981 "2,247,486" 3.21%

1982 "2,347,334" 4.25%

1983 "2,501,722" 6.17%

1984 "2,680,274" 6.66%

1985 "2,865,183" 6.45%

1986 "3,063,289" 6.47%

1987 "3,237,751" 5.39%

1988 "3,430,869" 5.63%

1989 "3,624,773" 5.35%

1990 "3,846,811" 5.77%

1991 "4,071,954" 5.53%

1992 "4,289,737" 5.08%

1993 "4,483,900" 4.33%

1994 "4,695,111" 4.50%

1995 "4,950,344" 5.16%

1996 "5,167,258" 4.20%

1997 "5,353,078" 3.47%

1998 "5,544,059" 3.44%

1999 "5,653,987" 1.94%

2000 "5,783,003" 2.23%

2001 "5,881,776" 1.68%

2002 "6,047,997" 2.75%

2003 "6,184,046" 2.20%

2004 "6,308,341" 1.97%

2005 "6,391,500" 1.30%

2006 "6,455,415" 1.00%

2007 "6,513,514" 0.90%

2008 "6,552,595" 0.60%

2009 "6,578,805" 0.40%

2010 "6,587,029" 0.13%

2011 "6,567,268" -0.30%

2012 "6,534,431" -0.50%

2013 "6,488,690" -0.70%

2014 "6,423,803" -1.00%

2015 "6,340,294" -1.30%

2016 "6,245,190" -1.50%

2017 "6,139,021" -1.70%

2018 "6,016,241" -2.00%

2019 "5,877,867" -2.30%

2020 "5,725,043" -2.60%

2021 "5,564,742" -2.80%

2022 "5,397,799" -3.00%

2023 "5,219,672" -3.30%

2024 "5,036,983" -3.50%

collegegirl21

Very impressive!!! Nice work...

silentWatcher

ah, linear extrapolation. :-) I'm a geek too... so let me play Rutherford's err the Devil's advocate :-)
Your extrapalation assumes a lack of "singularitity events" ala 1975. (where the derivative of the rate of change goes caca-cooie) I see one biggie on the horizon: 2014. Do you think that will cause deviation from the trend? Actually, 1975 didn't get rolling until circa 1967-68. So, extrapolating, they may yet bring back the "greatest generation" for one last go. Then, that could be modeled by a swing similar to the one observed around 1975 (albeit smaller in magnitude to reflect 2 differences: 1) harder sale the second time around and 2) the number of publishers is larger. Of course, you didn't include 2034. :-) Good work Elsewhere. I love numbers and playing "what-if" scenarios Actually my work involves data mining and machine learning. I should play with their data one day....

-silent

JUG

Hey college girl, what college ya go to?

Elsewhere

Your extrapolation assumes a lack of "singularity events" ala 1975.

Ahhh yes! I did that because singularity events are very hard to predict and I wanted to give the WTS every benefit of the doubt as possible... I also decided to give them some free percentage points to keep my estimates as conservative as possible without becoming absurd.

"Past Performance Does Not Guarantee Future Results"

AlanF

Nice work, Elsewhere!

Good point about singularity events, silentWatcher. The year 2014, I seriously doubt, can be made into a big deal. There's too much information floating around now, and many JWs today are acutely aware (deep in their subconscious, of course) of the 1975 fiasco. This is quite unlike pre-1975 days, when hardly any JWs knew about the 1925 fiasco. I do think that 2014 will be a singularly significant emotional event for many JWs, though. When it passes without incident, not much hope for the immediate future will be left, except perhaps for 2034, and that's a date that I think not even the most foolhardy of JW leaders will want to touch.

AlanF

silentWatcher

Really, good work Elsewhere.

Actually, there are statistical methods to predict "non-linear" events, but they are rather involved, ans also don't work so well for such small data sets. Actually, you're model is quite reasonable, and (most importantly) fits the context of the data (i.e., is consistent with "outside" information that we all have).

-silent

Highlander

Interesting... The second graph is very close to the graph about "World Oil Production" which shows oil production peaking at about 2010 and then oil supplies will decline.

Apparently witnesses will 'peak' around 2010 or a bit after and then decline. It makes sense though, without gasoline, witnesses won't be able to drive around searching for

a mcdonalds while they're out preaching.

Forscher

Impressive Elsewhere!
I don't doubt the leadership is projection, after all, they are running a business. I imagine the tightening up and the 2035 number are all related to that. Unfortunately for them, the factors AlanF menyioned are in play. That is going to make for rough going!
Forscher

jwfacts

I hope your figures end up being accurate

Projected growth of the Watchtower Society

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