Projected growth of the Watchtower Society

by Elsewhere 18 Replies latest jw friends

  • KW13

    Well they gotta predict the end soon then or no one will be left

  • AK - Jeff
    AK - Jeff

    Good work, Elsewhere. I do believe the 'peak' is here for them, and the 'trendline' is clearly demonstative of continued lost steam. Thanx.

    I do think that 2014 will be a singularly significant emotional event for many JWs, though. When it passes without incident, not much hope for the immediate future will be left, except perhaps for 2034, and that's a date that I think not even the most foolhardy of JW leaders will want to touch.


    Regarding 2014, Alan. I do believe it will have negative impact all the way. I don't believe the FDS will dare impart any special meaning to it - though I have suggested that possiblility myself in the past - I don't think they dare. But it will have tremendous impact in the deep recessses of JW minds. And many will leave when it is clear that the King of Kings has been unable to start His rule in a 100 years time - the eschatology will rip at the seams - though there will be great effort to put some 'new wine in the old wineskins' - we know the result.

    The Significant Emotional Event is an interesting phrase, Alan. I believe it was coined by Professor Meirer [sp] of Michigan University? I recall it being expounded in a course entitled "What we are now, is what we were when.....". Or to that effect. The 80's are a long way back now. He may not have originated it - but that is where I heard it first. Interesting.


  • slugga

    Wish it were true, unfortunately those figures don't take into account the expected growth rate that will occur when China opens up. China's pushing for greater economic ties with the rest of the world, its going to have to ease off on the human rights issues to get into certain markets.

    We'll see the org dying a death here in the west but I think we'll see an initial spurt of growth in the East and the org will run with these figures.

  • AK - Jeff
    AK - Jeff

    I don't know slugga.

    There is considerable 'culture' to overcome there. A quick converstion of many is unlikely I suspect. Eastern religious thought is not easily converted to Christian thinking, let alone witness thinking, which will fly in the face of most 'Christian theology' and only add to the confusion of making converts.

    In the cities, the same technologies exists as here in the West, internet etc. In the rurals, there is no money, hence the well is dry there for a book publishing company to thrive.

    I just don't see China as the next opportunity for a western religious book force to make many inroads. Now the missionary groups that provide real services and love will do fine, but the witnesses never do that. Besides. they have been there for decades with little success.


  • slimboyfat

    Have you read Rodney Stark's projected growth figures for JWs which is much higher?

    Mind you, he said the same thing about Mormon growth - and they have been declining ever since.

  • stillajwexelder

    Thanks Elsewhere - you beat me to it. I was just working on the same things trying some extrapolations and interpolations

  • M.J.

    I wonder if anyone knows of a similar mormon church graph. From what it sounds like they've already peaked out. I wonder if the overall shape of the graph is similar.

  • theinfamousone

    when i take over the world, they will not exist at all... so im saying that by 2015, theyl be gone!!!! but nice work my friend...

    the infamous one

  • Elsewhere
    Have you read Rodney Stark's projected growth figures for JWs which is much higher?

    I can understand why he would have predicted that... one thing I find very interesting is the fact that many fundamentalist churches are experiencing explosive growth right now... yet JWs and Mormons, two of the most fundamental christian religions in the world, are not. In fact their growth is dwindling.

    The big question in my mind is: Why?

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