Some fun w/US Watchtower numbers

by jstalin 12 Replies latest jw friends

  • jstalin
    jstalin

    Below is a graph of US WT numbers. Yellow is total annual baptisms, purple is average publishers, and cyan is attrition rate (total people who left the organization each year). These numbers relate to calendar years, not service years. Below is also the corresponding list of actual numbers.

    Year
    Average Pub
    Baptized
    Attrition
    1971
      409,679 
      42,741 
      (30,850)
    1972
      421,570 
      48,894 
      (6,226)
    1973
      464,238 
      61,377 
      (7,355)
    1974
      518,260 
      83,324 
      (60,933)
    1975
      540,651 
      64,654 
      (66,282)
    1976
      539,023 
      37,710 
      (50,860)
    1977
      525,873 
      25,405 
      (37,147)
    1978
      514,131 
      24,171 
      (11,227)
    1979
      527,075 
      28,344 
      (5,710)
    1980
      549,709 
      28,772 
      (12,285)
    1981
      566,196 
      28,155 
      (4)
    1982
      594,347 
      35,905 
      (3,965)
    1983
      626,287 
      33,609 
      352 
    1984
      660,248 
      35,783 
      (7,789)
    1985
      688,242 
      36,736 
      (6,623)
    1986
      718,355 
      40,156 
      (15,713)
    1987
      742,798 
      40,199 
      (9,912)
    1988
      773,085 
      43,988 
      (20,268)
    1989
      796,805 
      48,760 
      (20,487)
    1990
      825,078 
      47,336 
      (18,016)
    1991
      854,398 
      42,878 
      (15,376)
    1992
      881,900 
      40,742 
      (27,074)
    1993
      895,568 
      39,431 
      (21,312)
    1994
      913,687 
      44,776 
      (41,848)
    1995
      916,615 
      44,780 
      (38,038)
    1996
      923,357 
      45,322 
      (34,534)
    1997
      934,145 
      42,297 
      (30,560)
    1998
      945,882 
      37,416 
      (43,375)
    1999
      939,923 
      30,977 
      (24,065)
    2000
      946,835 
      30,234 
      (23,732)
    2001
      953,337 
      27,628 
      (2,876)
    2002
      978,089 
      30,687 
      (18,616)
    2003
      990,160 
      30,297 
      (25,432)
    2004
      995,025

  • serendipity
    serendipity

    I'd venture a guess that most of the growth has come from JW family members rather than the public at large.

  • sinis
    sinis

    Ok, so this chart is saying that from 1971 - 2003 the society has LOST close to 740,000 people?! If so then they are close to a 100% attrition - or completely new members.

  • jstalin
    jstalin

    You are correct. Between 1971 and 2003, there were 1,323,484 baptisms, and at the same time, "average publishers" increased only 580,481, which means a loss of 743,003.

  • Dune
    Dune

    How about people who died? I think you'll have to attribute about 100,000 people that have died to the atttrition.

  • skyman
    skyman

    What I like about this graph is the fact that now they only have about 30,000 baptized but in the seventy's as many as 60,000 in one year. So if you look at the decline in new ones happening now it is very nice to see people are getting smarter and doing more reasearch than in the past.

  • quango
    quango

    Assuming that JW demographics are similar to the population at large , the US death rate is approx 0.8% per annum , so you would assume about 10K "attrition" caused by deaths.

    The 2 main statistical factors are:

    (1) Law of Diminishing Returns Inevitably , growth decreases over time , otherwise all the inhabitants of the USA will become witnesses. The same effect is felt by large companies (Wal-Mart , Shell etc) who find it very difficult to grow year on year.

    (2) Moral Decline As the vast majority of JWs are disfellowshipped for immorality , inevitably the increasing "permissive society" has made it more common for people to leave for this reason.

  • jstalin
    jstalin
    (1) Law of Diminishing Returns ; ; ; Inevitably , growth decreases over time , otherwise all the inhabitants of the USA will become witnesses. The same effect is felt by large companies (Wal-Mart , Shell etc) who find it very difficult to grow year on year.

    You're correct, but Wal-Mart's problem is market saturation. JWs number less than 1 million in the United States, a nation with a population approaching 300 million. That's about 0.3% of the population. Saturation could hardly be the problem here. The US is an overwhelmingly Christian nation, so one would think that WT ideology would get more traction, but the cult methods have a limited appeal. So, I think your conclusion of diminishing returns could be correct in a sense - we can guess that 1 million Americans are particularly susceptable to cult membership.

    (2) Moral Decline ; ; As the vast majority of JWs are disfellowshipped for immorality , inevitably the increasing "permissive society" has made it more common for people to leave for this reason.

    This is pure conjecture. We don't have any info on disfellowships, disassociations, fadings, so we have no idea how many of those who have left the organization are due to moral decline. In the strictest sense, moral decline can only be a guess, based on anecdotal evidence. I don't think we'll ever know the real numbers relating to the attrition rate.

  • quango
    quango

    Inevitably due to the demands and sacrifices involved , only a small percentage of people will become worshippers of God. Jesus made this clear when he spoke about 2 roads - a narrow road & a broad road. How many did he convert - despite the miracles he performed (if you still believe this). The good news has been preached in Western lands for well over 100 years now and most people have made their choice - the key (as Wal-Mart will tell you) is to break into new markets and try new methods.

    Incidentally , it isn't conjecture that most are disfellowshipped for immorality - this has several times been stated in the Watchtower. From local experience , 80% are expelled for this reason. The number disfellowshipped for apostasy is negligible in comparison , despite the best efforts of some.

  • jstalin
    jstalin
    Incidentally , it isn't conjecture that most are disfellowshipped for immorality - this has several times been stated in the Watchtower. From local experience , 80% are expelled for this reason. The number disfellowshipped for apostasy is negligible in comparison , despite the best efforts of some.

    I wasn't aware of any WT statements on disfellowships. However, I doubt that majority of the attrition is due to disfellowships - I would be willing to guess that more either fade or disassociate than are disfellowshipped.

    The WT in the US has become a revolving door.

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