1,200,000 Publishers left between 1993-2002

by Bluegrass Tom 33 Replies latest watchtower scandals

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  Bluegrass Tom

  I have been bothered for some time by the sneaking suspicion that the publisher increases published annually are never realized in a tangible way. Therefore, I sat down and studied a 10 year period of what has been published by the Society to see if I could get a warm and fuzzy feeling about these increases.

  After hours I have realized the following:

  The worldwide Service Year Report for the 2002 Service Year includes reports from 235 lands, but is controlled to a great extent by only 19 Countries. They are; Argentina, Brazil, Britain, Canada, Columbia, Congo, Dem. Rep of, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Nigeria, Philippines, Poland, Russia, Spain, Ukraine, USA and Zambia. These 19 Countries contribute 71.5% of the Publishers/hours/baptized, etc.

  Each one of these Countries with the exception of the

  USA 2002 Avg. Pubs 1993 Avg. Pubs Increase

  972,754 878,841 93,913

  However, in this period 371,252 were baptized. Therefore the increase should be more than 93, 913. Something happened to 277,339 publishers (371,252-93,913). I assume that these 277,339 are people that died, were disfellowshiped, disassociated or became inactive. The same is true in every other of the 19 controlling countries (except the 3 mentioned above), and the worldwide report in general.

  World wide 2002 Avg. Pubs 1993 Avg. Pubs Increase

  6,048,600 4,483,900 1,564,700

  However there were 2, 825,714 baptized worldwide during this 10 year period. Something happened to 1,261,014 publishers.

  Some of the Countries had straight-out declines.

  Country 2002 Avg. Pubs 1993 Avg. Pubs Increase

  120,801 122,245 -1,444

  110,987 119,730 - 8,743

  161,850 161,685 +165 (statistical zero)

  When the numbers baptized are considered this of course gets worse.

  There is no question that there is an increase in publishers, but nowhere as large as it should be if the people being baptized stayed.

  The next queestion is who are getting baptized? It may be to a large extent the children of believers, etc.
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  M.J.

  Wow. With the annual death rate in the US around 0.85%, maybe you can subtract about 70,000 7,800 for death over the 9 years. This leaves 207,339 269,539 that left. That gives an average dropout rate of around 23%, 29% (APPROACHING 1/3!) assuming new baptisms=new publishers, which isn't always the case. But over time I guess it would average out.

  Edited to correct my faulty math!
• 

  RunningMan

  There is no surprise that many Witnesses go AWOL. The revolving door is the main reason that they need to be so agressive at selling. If they would simply make the organization a more pleasant place to be, they wouldn't need to recruit so heavily.

  As for who is getting baptized, my observation is that 80 or 90% of the baptisms are children of JWs. So, if most of your converts are made internally, why bother preaching door to door?
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  Country_Woman

  because children normally not own much money - so it have to come from outside..
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  Elsewhere

  Wow. With the annual death rate in the US around 0.85%, maybe you can subtract about 70,000 for death over the 9 years. This leaves 207,339 that left. That gives an average dropout rate of around 23%, assuming new baptisms=new publishers, which isn't always the case. But over time I guess it would average out.

  This tells me that during the "study" phase a JW's reported activity goes up. After baptism a certain period of time passes and then most JWs gradually become more inactive. The only way to keep the number of publishers up is by bringing in new people to replace the ones who have become inactive. Basically it is a cycle of "manic preaching" followed by a long "drepressed" phase that lasts the rest of the JW's life. This would cerainly explain why the WTS is constantly trying to get the JWs to "do more". They know that most JWs are not doing anywhere near as much as the few who are still in their "manic" phase.
• 

  Dansk

  This tells me that during the "study" phase a JW's reported activity goes up.

  And let's not forget those who fiddle their reports! I've known JWs book hours they couldn't possibly have achieved. I've known JWs come round ostensibly to see me, but talk to my kids before they were baptised so they could count their time. I know of one regular pioneer who used to count an hour, an RV and a study with every one of her five children every week, whereas she was supposed to count one hour, one study and one RV with the five children collectively!

  Others used to spend ages on just one unopened door and I often wondered if they'd even bothered to knock! Then there was always the elder who took himself off to "check on how others were doing!" If he did two doors that was 50% more than normal!

  I used to start my time from knocking on my first door or speaking to my first person in the street. I learnt later that some were counting their time from leaving their cars - even though they hadn't spoken to anyone!

  There were so many scams going on at the time regarding counting time. So, I wonder just how much REAL ministry time is being used to get to these figures.
• 

  Buster

  Using admittedly hacked up and rounded math, I come up with a turnover figure somewhere around M.J.'s

  973K - 1993 avg pub

  less 88K - 1% for 9 years death rate (I thought it would be bit higher than the national average)

  =885K - expected to still be alive of the original 1993 publisher

  add 371K - baptized over the 9 years

  less 11K - death rate of those baptized over the last 9 years (I think baptizees tend to be younger, so I picked 1/3 the national average, and then half again to account for an average over the 9 years)

  =1,245K - expected w/o fall-aways (inactive, disfellowshipped, DA'd)

  less 973 - 2002 avg pub

  = 272K - fall away's

  Now, 926K avg (interpolated) over the nine years means that 272K/926K gives a 29% turnover.

  But over 9 years, the annual turnover averages just over 3%.

  In an average congregation of 90 to 110, in a whole year, this really translates to just a couple teenagers leaving, or just a small family leaving. Now here is my point, the turnover is surprisingly low.
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  ozziepost

  Whatever we might conjecture, the facts are that the numbers are flat!
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  M.J.

  Based on birth rate in the US alone, and discounting external growth, the 878,841 publishers in 1993 should have increased to around 993,000 in 2002 if no one left the ranks. Subtracting the number of deaths, at around a .85 % annual rate, this puts the number at 985,500. But the actual number in 2002 was 972,754. So they are not even keeping up with the birth rate, let alone external growth.

  Here's another calculation:

  In 1993 publishers made up 0.338 % of the US population

  In 2002 publishers made up 0.334 % of the US population
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  Bryan

  Very interesting Bluegrass, thank for the hard work!

  Bryan

  Have You Seen My Mother