by Witness 007 16 Replies latest watchtower scandals
Japan had a MASSIVE increase in Publishers from 1950-1998. Then in 1998 something happened and Jehovah's blessing switched off!!!
1998 -222,912 Publishers 3,802 Congregations
2006 -217,519 Publishers 3,164 Congregations
9 Year loss 5,393 Pubs. 638 Congregations!!!
What happened any ideas? Does anyone have more current figures? Thats like 5 Circuits of Congs. closed!
What I think is most interesting about those statistics is that they lost far, far too more congregations than should be expected. I mean it averages out at 8.5 lost publishers per closed congregation(!) or in other words, a 2.5% reduction in publishers vs. a 16.8% reduction in congregations. How on earth does that make sense?
Either the WT opened FAR too many congregations in the early phase and later consolidated them, or else the numbers of publishers is padded such that the effective number of seats required has been reduced by about 15%.
If the first explanation is true, I think we should have seen the same pattern in other countries (an overall reduction in the number of congregations relative to the number of publishers). Since this is not the case I am leaning towards the numbers being padded.
Fewer Jdubs in many fewer K halls. Amalgamation of congs will make it appear like there is only a small reduction in numbers present. Since the org owns all the property now, perhaps they will welcome, even encourage a reduction so they can make a profit from the sales of the excess halls. Perhaps this will be the pattern for the future as it winds down?
I would call this living off your own body fat...
2014 was peak 215,703 and average 215,294 in 3057 congos.
2013 was average 215,966.
Demographics perhaps as initial converts die?
1998 - 222,912 Pubs. 3,802 Congs.
2014- 215,703 Pubs. 3,057 Congs.
17 YEAR LOSS Pubs. 7,209. Congs. gone 745!!!!
This is a huge loss. They had 10,000 new publishers a year for decades!!!
One day the US will show the same decline...
Actually, it likely would show it, but for the growth in Spanish-speaking congregations.
Five reasons:
#1 They consider it a lack of faith to be having children deep in this time of the end. Very few couples are having kids. In fact, many people in their 30s and 40s are refraining from marriage to "seek first the kingdom".
I have seen a couple hide there pregnancy until the sixth month because they were embarrassed to be having children.
#2 Tons of pioneers/publishers are jumping ship moving to where the need is greater in Nepal, Taiwan, China, Mongolia etc. None of the young ones want to stay here because the atmosphere in the congs are restrictive, conservative and repressive.
#3 New growth is almost non-existent. The blood policy is a very sore topic here. Witnesses are well known here for their stance on blood and outsiders find it to be sick and cultish.
#4 Many of those who came in the 60's and 70's are dying off. There is an overall decline in population and an increasingly burgeoning elderly population.
#5 Japanese witnesses are crazy. Yes crazy. So many of them have mental problems and are battling severe depression. They combat this by giving 150% every day until one day they just... disappear and you never see them again. There really is no middle ground here. They are either in Samurai Christian mode or they just completely burn out and fall off the radar quickly.
Very interesting. I'd guess it's because the Japanese are more educated (at least that's the way it seems to me). I think it's indicative of what many of us have said on this site - that JW recruiting among the educated is now having almost zero success, but any growth is in developing lands where the education level is low.
JWs had success a few decades ago in Japan for the same reason it had success with some of us. Knowledge was not as widely available at that time. Also, the timing was right for JWs. During the 70's there was the supposed energy crisis. There was the cold war. The time was right for an end-times group like JWs. JW doctrines seemed more reasonable than many of us those taught by churches. It seemed to make sense.
But then... this system kept on ticking. Time ran out on another JW prediction (that the end would come before the 1914 generation died off). Material showing the real history and wrongs and flaws of JWdom became available on the internet.
The less educated, naïve, and ignorant were not as affected by this for one or more of several reasons - they didn't have the ability or resources to avail themselves of the material, they didn't have the mental capacity to comprehend it, and/or they just blindly trusted the org. But many of the Japanese are more educated and they have the resources to avail themselves of the material and they have the smarts to process it.
I would guess that there's almost zero growth in Japan from the outside as there is in the U.S. and other such places. Also, a lot of the born-ins are leaving. Maybe even some of the old-timers are waking up.
So, no growth from outside and some on the inside leaving = loss.
