by jwfacts 30 Replies latest watchtower bible
Very graphical, thank you. That first graph I think, shows the gradual falling away of...zeal? Effectiveness. The era of the Fuller Brush salesman is dead.
Mary, I've seen several examples where shut-ins have taken advantage of the bible study offer to get regular socialization. Somehow, the study falls apart at baptism, sometimes by concerned family.
wow!! great work...
I knew I got up early for something..
It ain't working out to well for them anymore, and as some one pointed out on another thread..
they kinda gave up some information contol, when they said get on the internet ... go to JW.org..
wuuups
this can only get worse for them...
L8R T8R
Can't see second graph at work...will have to try at home.
It is interesting in the JW figures that one person can pop up in several of the stats.
A 'progressive' bible study could be a publisher for 6-12 months before being baptised, or if a child, for several years.
So the bible study would be counted in peak & ave pubs for the year, as well as a Bible study
Great analysis as always JWFacts!
Interestingly, if you eliminate the 1975 Era years, say 1969 - 1976, there was a peak in the effectiveness of Bible Studies leading to Baptisms in the early '80s. From your chart it looks like 1983 was a really good year. After that, it's all downhill from there.
BTW, BOC stole my snarky comment ...
Excellent job, Paul!
But......I just wonder.....could a swift JW (I know, an oxymoron ) argue that we are committing this logical fallacy?
Afterall, say, the murder rate has been steadily declining in recent years as well. Thusly, more bible studies lower crime.
(Playin' devil's advocate y'all)
http://www.censusscope.org/us/chart_age.html
This shows U.S. population by age. Of course, a lot of approximation would have to be done, as under 18 could be about 26%, most being already counted as publishers, and some baptized already. Could 20% of their publishers be their children?, at approximately 230,000? How many of these are counted as Bible Studies by their parents, plus any additional Bible Studies counted by the parents of those under 5 yrs old, that are not counted as "publishers" as of yet?
Just wondering, could an average U.S. Cong. having 85 publishers, have 17? kids (6-17)? Could there be about 6 (5 and under) kids? Seems possible.
Just a lot of questions, I know. But, the baptisms seem to be their young kids and shows to be the more dominant part of their growth.
I suspect there are many people "counted" as Bible Studies that don't even know they are "studying with JWs".
The "Door Step Bible Study" is really just an RV where the pub/pioneer discusses one question per week and doesn't necessarily enter the home. Don't you think there are a lot of lonely old people, or even just polite people that let them drone on for 5 or 10 minutes at the door, take the new WT&A, and shut the door and go back to the TV.
But that was a BIBLE STUDY! TA DAH!
It's a cult joke.
Doc
When my brother and I got baptized in January of 1974 at a circuit assembly with 2000 people in attendance, there were 119 people baptized, most of whom were teenagers with frantic parents (like mine).
When we all marched out of the auditorium it took so long that they had to have the audience sing 2 songs. I wonder how often that scenario was repeated that year.
Good comments, thanks.
Sapphy - It is interesting in the JW figures that one person can pop up in several of the stats. A 'progressive' bible study could be a publisher for 6-12 months before being baptised, or if a child, for several years. So the bible study would be counted in peak & ave pubs for the year, as well as a Bible study.
That is a good observation, and makes it impossible to get accurate figures. The trends are meaningful, but the exact numbers are not.
Yan Bibiyan - could a swift JW (I know, an oxymoron
There is a correlationship related to the cause between bible studies and baptisms, as a baptism always is preceded by a bible study. I think the spike in the early seventies are hard to argue against it being caused by the 1975 doctrine. However, the dropping rates now are probably not entirely caused by the internet.
Gayle, even if there are 20% from children, that still leaves over 6 million bible studies from the territory. However, I agree with the other comments that they are usually just lonely people wanting someone to talk to.
) argue that we are committing